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Inflation and Financial Stability

5th Joint Workshop of the Macroprudential Analysis Working Group (MPAG) and Analysis Working Group (AWG)

Thursday, 17 November 2022
Online event - by invitation only

The broader objective of the workshop is to facilitate and strengthen the dialogue among policymakers and supervisors, while benefitting from the perspective of researchers, thereby advancing our collective understanding of the channels through which high inflation could affect financial stability, taking into account the implications for governments, firms (both financial and non-financial), households and financial markets.

Programme

Times are Central European Time

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 17 November 2022
11:00

Opening remarks

Emmanuelle Assouan, Deputy Director General, Financial Stability at the Banque de France & AWG-MPAG Co-Chair

 

Session 1: Impact of rising inflation on the non-financial private sector

Chair: Robert Kelly, Central Bank of Ireland

11:10

Winners and losers from unexpected inflation

Filippo Pallotti*, University College London

Discussant: Magnus Andersson, ESRB

11:45

A micro-simulation model for household resilience assessment for Ireland

  • Tamanna Adhikari*, Central Bank of Ireland
  • Fang Yao, Central Bank of Ireland

Discussant: Daniel Dieckelmann, ECB

12:20

Coffee break

12:30

Aggregate effects of inflation on financial stability

  • Aino Silvo*, Bank of Finland
  • Samu Kärkkäinen, Bank of Finland

Discussant: Petteri Juvonen, Bank of Finland

13:05

End of morning session

14:05

Keynote address “Financial Stability considerations for monetary policy”

Chair: Paul Hiebert, ECB

Keynote speaker: Nina Boyarchenko, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

Session 2: Rising inflation, financial stability and macroprudential policy

Chair: Emmanuelle Assouan, Banque de France

15:05

A tail of three occasionally-binding constraints: a modelling approach to GDP-at-Risk

  • Kristina Bluwstein*, Bank of England
  • David Aikman, King’s College of London
  • Sudipto Karmakar, Bank of England

Discussant: Stephan Fahr, ECB

15:40

Coffee break

15:50

Macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policies
Evidence from a narrative panel VAR for the Euro Area

  • Katarzyna Budnik*, ECB
  • Gerhard Runstler, ECB

Discussant: Antonio Conti, Banca d’Italia

16:25

Business cycle response to inflation shocks: the role of debt maturity and interest rate type

  • Fabio Massimo Piersanti*, Banca d’Italia
  • Valentina Michelangeli, Banca d’Italia

Discussant: Lisa Kerdelhue, Banque de France

17:00

Concluding remarks

Paul Hiebert, Head of Systemic Risk & Financial Institutions, at the ECB & AWG-MPAG Co-Chair

17:05

End of the workshop

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

General information

Online event - WebEx

Workshop language

English

Organisers

  • Emmanuelle Assouan, AWG-MPAG Co-Chair, Banque de France
  • Paul Hiebert, AWG-MPAG Co-Chair, ECB
  • Ludivine Berret, AWG Secretary, ESRB Secretariat
  • Giorgia De Nora, MPAG Secretary, ECB
  • Magnus Andersson, ESRB Secretariat
  • Federico M. Signoretti, Banca d’Italia
  • Peter Welz, ECB
  • Anne McTaggart, ECB
  • Shirley Simmons-Nocca, ESRB Secretariat

Contacts

Organising Committee
EURiskWorkshop@ecb.europa.eu

AWG-MPAG Secretariat
Anne McTaggart
+49 69 1344 6372
MPAGSecretariat@ecb.int