Central banking economic modelling frontiers: trends, cycles and structural shifts – Call for papers

The macroeconomic environment facing central banks is undergoing a period of profound structural transformation. A number of fundamental forces - including the retreat from globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, demographic change, migration, rapid technological advances such as artificial intelligence, the green transition, and the ongoing deepening of European integration - are reshaping the economy's long-run trajectory while simultaneously giving rise to significant short- and medium-term macroeconomic dynamics. These structural transitions carry important implications for inflation, productivity, labour markets, the financial system, investment, the transmission of monetary policy, and the assessment of economic slack, thereby posing new analytical challenges for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and policy preparation.

The conference aims to bring together leading academics and policymakers to examine how central bank macroeconomic models can be further developed to better capture the nature and pace of these structural shifts, their associated transition dynamics, and the interaction between evolving long-run trends and business cycle fluctuations. Particular attention will be devoted to analytical challenges and policy implications of direct relevance to the euro area and the European Union.

The conference will also feature a "Day-Ahead" with policymakers, academics, and practitioners to foster discussion and debate around the importance and the challenges of incorporating long-term structural issues in macroeconomic models for central banking, and their importance in research-based policy preparation.

The conference will be in-person at the ECB premises in Frankfurt.

Topics

We are particularly interested in rigorous empirical and theoretical contributions with relevance for central bank macroeconomic modelling. Submissions are welcome across the following thematic areas:

• Structural shifts, transition dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy
• Revisions to long-run expectations and their interaction with business cycle fluctuations
• Artificial intelligence, technological diffusion and macroeconomic dynamics
• Geopolitical fragmentation, trade realignment and global supply chain restructuring
• Demographic change, migration and labour market adjustment
• The green transition, climate-related risks and macroeconomic adjustment
• EU Single Market deepening

Paper submissions deadline: 6 September 2026.

Successful applicants will be notified by 18 September 2026.

We invite authors to submit completed papers to MacroModellingConf@ecb.europa.eu. 

Organising committee:

Nikola Bokan, Matteo Ciccarelli, Antoine Kornprobst, Romanos Priftis - all ECB