Central banking economic modelling frontiers: trends, cycles and structural shifts
Tuesday, 1 and Wednesday, 2 December 2026
Frankfurt am Main
The macroeconomic environment is undergoing structural transformations driven by the retreat of globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, demographic shifts, rapid AI adoption, and the green transition. These structural forces generate both long-term shifts and short-to-medium-term dynamics that directly impact inflation, productivity, labor markets, and monetary policy transmission. In turn, these changes present complex analytical challenges for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting, and policy preparation. To address these issues, the conference brings together leading academics and policymakers to refine central bank macroeconomic models. Ultimately, the discussion focuses on capturing these structural shifts and transition dynamics, with a particular emphasis on the euro area and the European Union.
Programme
* indicates the presenter
- 13:30
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Registration and coffee
- 14:00
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Opening remarks
Oscar Arce, European Central Bank
- 14:15
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Keynote speeches
Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank
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Keynote speech 1
Rachel Ngai, London School of Economics
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Keynote speech 2
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, University of Pennsylvania
- 16:15
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Coffee break
- 16:45
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Policy panel: “Modelling a world in transition: how should central bank macro models treat structural change alongside the business cycle”
Moderator: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
Panellists:
- Stefania Albanesi, University of Miami
- Guido Ascari, De Nederlandsche Bank
- Anton Korinek and Peter McCrory, Anthropic
- Galo Nuño, IE University
- 18:15
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End of Day-Ahead
Reception – by invitation only
- 19:00
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Dinner
by invitation only
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Remarks
Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
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Dinner speech
- 8:30
-
Registration and coffee
-
Session A: Artificial intelligence
Chair: Marta Bańbura, European Central Bank
- 9:00
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The Macroeconomic Implications of the Gen-AI Economy
- Pablo Guerron Quintana*, Boston College
- Tomoaki Mikami, Boston College
- Jaromir Nosal, Boston College
Discussant: Michaela Elfsbacka Schmöller, European Central Bank
- 9:50
-
AI Production, AI Diffusion, and Aggregate Performance
- Helen Popper*, Santa Clara University
- Christoph Schult, Halle Institute for Economic Research
Discussant: Omar Rachedi, Esade, Universitat Ramon Llull
- 10:40
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Coffee break
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Session B: Climate change
Chair: Matthieu Darracq Pariès, European Central Bank
- 11:10
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The Carbon Cost of Computing: AI, Data Externalities, and Climate Policy
Julia M. Schmidt*, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL
Discussant: Ghassane Benmir, IE University
- 12:00
-
Building Macroeconomically Relevant Climate Indices via the Assemblage VAR
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe*, Université du Québec à Montréal
- Christophe Barrette, Bocconi University
- Tim Reinicke, KOF Institute, ETH Zurich
Discussant: Fulvia Marotta, De Nederlandsche Bank
- 12:50
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Buffet lunch
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Session C: Long-run trends
Chair: Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
- 14:10
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Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest?
- Danilo Leiva-León, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Rodrigo Sekkel*, Bank of Canada
- Luis Uzeda, Bank of Canada and CAMA
Discussant: Agustina Sampaolesi, Bank of England
- 14:00
-
Solution and Estimation of Stochastic Models of Structural Transformation: Taking Ngai-Pissarides to the Data
- Francisco Buera, Washington University in St. Louis
- Ippei Fujiwara, Keio University and University of Tokyo
- Mariano Kulish, University of Sydney
- Inna Tsener*, Universitat de les Illes Balears
Discussant: Jonathan J. Adams, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- 15:50
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Coffee break
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Session D: Structural change
Chair: Paolo Guarda, Banque centrale du Luxembourg
- 16:20
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The Peace Dividend: Defense Multipliers with Conflict Risk
- Henrique Basso*, Banco de España
- Omar Rachedi, Esade, Universitat Ramon Llull
Discussant: Peter McAdam, European Central Bank
- 17:10
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Beyond the Unemployment Rate: A Structural Labor Market Indicator
- Isabel Cairo, Federal Reserve Board
- Hess Chung, Federal Reserve Board
- Francesco Ferrante, Federal Reserve Board
- Cristina Fuentes-Albero*, Federal Reserve Board
- Camilo Morales-Jimenez, Federal Reserve Board
- Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Discussant: Matthias Rottner, Deutsche Bundesbank
- 18:00
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Closing remarks and end of conference
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet/intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please inform us in advance of the conference. In addition, the event will be filmed and the video recording (or parts of it) will be published on the internet and the ECB’s intranet.
General information
European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Room C2.06
English
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
- Nikola Bokan
- Matteo Ciccarelli
- Stefanie Jetten
- Antoine Kornprobst
- Romanos Priftis