Nie ma wersji polskiej
Denise Rößler
International & European Relations
- Division
International Policy Analysis
- Current Position
-
Analyst
- Fields of interest
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Microeconomics,International Economics,Financial Economics
- Education
- 2021-2023
M.Sc. Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
- 2016-2021
B.Sc. Economics, Ruprecht-Karls Universität Heidelberg, Germany
- 7 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3227Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market.
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 14 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Geopolitical risk can be a threat to financial stability and the global economy. It can adversely affect the economy and financial markets and consequently have a negative impact on the funding, lending, solvency, asset quality and profitability of banks and non-banks alike. Recent history suggests that adverse geopolitical events alone are unlikely to cause a systemic crisis, although they may act as a trigger for systemic distress if they interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities. Looking ahead, policy authorities need to monitor geopolitical risk and assess its possible consequences for financial stability. Financial institutions should apply a combination of sound risk management and business diversification to address geopolitical risk.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 9 January 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The reaction of oil prices to geopolitical shocks depends on the country of origin. Empirical analysis suggests that instances of rising geopolitical tensions generally put downward pressure on oil prices, reflecting weaker global demand on the back of lower economic activity. However, geopolitical events in some major oil-producing countries may lead to increases in oil prices amid expectations by market participants of disruptions to future oil supply. Oil price pressures arising from these adverse shocks are typically short-lived and disappear after one quarter. However, recent heightened geopolitical uncertainty stresses the need to identify the nature of these shocks to disentangle their effects on oil prices and inflation.
- JEL Code
- Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions