2004 Q4
HICP Inflation forecasts
Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat
2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Sep. 2005 | Sep. 2006 | 2009 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Number of replies | 62 | 62 | 51 | 54 | 46 | 46 |
Probability distributions | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Sep. 2005 | Sep. 2006 | 2009 |
<0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
0.0-0.4% | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
0.5-0.9% | 0.6 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
1.0-1.4% | 1.5 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.8 |
1.5-1.9% | 13.0 | 41.6 | 40.5 | 43.1 | 38.9 | 35.3 |
2.0-2.4% | 77.3 | 39.3 | 33.9 | 33.3 | 33.0 | 30.2 |
2.5-2.9% | 6.3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 11.2 |
3.0-3.4% | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.0 |
>3.5% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Core HICP inflation forecasts
Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.
Real GDP growth forecasts
Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.
2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2005 Q2 | 2006 Q2 | 2009 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Number of replies | 62 | 62 | 51 | 55 | 47 | 45 |
Probability distributions | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2005 Q2 | 2006 Q2 | 2009 |
<0.0% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
0.0-0.4% | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
0.5-0.9% | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.9 |
1.0-1.4% | 7.0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
1.5-1.9% | 60.3 | 33.0 | 24.9 | 34.8 | 29.8 | 23.5 |
2.0-2.4% | 27.6 | 42.1 | 40.8 | 38.1 | 38.1 | 34.8 |
2.5-2.9% | 2.3 | 10.8 | 16.7 | 10.1 | 14.8 | 16.7 |
3.0-3.4% | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 6.7 |
3.5-3.9% | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
>4.0% | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Aug. 2005 | Aug. 2006 | 2009 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.5 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Number of replies | 60 | 60 | 51 | 52 | 44 | 40 |
Probability distributions | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Aug. 2005 | Aug. 2006 | 2009 |
<5.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 |
5.5-5.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
6.0-6.4% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
6.5-6.9% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 7.7 |
7.0-7.4% | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 21.3 |
7.5-7.9% | 0.9 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 20.6 |
8.0-8.4% | 3.1 | 11.7 | 28.0 | 14.1 | 26.4 | 20.1 |
8.5-8.9% | 38.5 | 50.9 | 39.8 | 50.0 | 37.3 | 14.5 |
9.0-9.4% | 53.5 | 28.3 | 16.1 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 6.2 |
9.5-9.9% | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
10.0-10.4% | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
10.5-10.9% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
>11.0% | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |