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2004 Q4

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2004 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2004 2005 2006 Sep. 2005 Sep. 2006 2009
Mean point estimate 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 62 62 51 54 46 46
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2006 Sep. 2005 Sep. 2006 2009
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.3
0.0-0.4% 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.91.9
0.5-0.9% 0.6 2.0 3.5 2.6 3.85.2
1.0-1.4% 1.5 7.2 11.3 11.7 11.511.8
1.5-1.9% 13.0 41.6 40.5 43.1 38.935.3
2.0-2.4% 77.3 39.3 33.9 33.3 33.030.2
2.5-2.9% 6.3 8.2 7.7 7.4 9.311.2
3.0-3.4% 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.2 2.13.0
>3.5% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.51.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2004 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2004 2005 2006 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2009
Mean point estimate 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 62 62 51 55 47 45
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2006 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2009
<0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.40.8
0.0-0.4% 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.81.6
0.5-0.9% 1.3 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.33.9
1.0-1.4% 7.0 8.3 7.9 11.0 8.09.0
1.5-1.9% 60.3 33.0 24.9 34.8 29.823.5
2.0-2.4% 27.6 42.1 40.8 38.1 38.134.8
2.5-2.9% 2.3 10.8 16.7 10.1 14.816.7
3.0-3.4% 0.7 1.9 4.2 2.0 4.66.7
3.5-3.9% 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.02.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.20.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2004 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2004 2005 2006 Aug. 2005 Aug. 2006 2009
Mean point estimate 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 8.4 7.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8
Number of replies 60 60 51 52 44 40
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2006 Aug. 2005 Aug. 2006 2009
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.2
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.9
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.12.6
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.2 3.07.7
7.0-7.4% 0.3 0.5 2.6 0.5 3.221.3
7.5-7.9% 0.9 3.0 6.8 4.9 9.520.6
8.0-8.4% 3.1 11.7 28.0 14.1 26.420.1
8.5-8.9% 38.5 50.9 39.8 50.0 37.314.5
9.0-9.4% 53.5 28.3 16.1 26.3 16.36.2
9.5-9.9% 2.7 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.52.4
10.0-10.4% 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.80.5
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.10.1
>11.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0