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Piergiorgio Alessandri

30 April 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1041
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Abstract
Banks typically determine their capital levels by separately analysing credit and interest rate risk, but the interaction between the two is significant and potentially complex. We develop an integrated economic capital model for a banking book where all exposures are held to maturity. Our simulations show that capital is mismeasured if risk interdependencies are ignored: adding up economic capital against credit and interest rate risk derived separately provides an upper bound relative to the integrated capital level. The magnitude of the difference depends on the structure of the balance sheet and on the repricing characteristics of assets and liabilities.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C13 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Estimation: General
1 February 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 114
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Abstract
The Basel III regulation explicitly prescribes the use of Hodrick-Prescott filters to estimate credit cycles and calibrate countercyclical capital buffers. However, the filter has been found to suffer from large ex-post revisions, raising concerns on its fitness for policy use. To investigate this problem we study credit cycles in a panel of 26 countries between 1971 and 2018. We reach two conclusions. The bad news is that the limitations of the one-side HP filter are serious and pervasive. The good news is that they can be easily mitigated. The filtering errors are persistent and hence predictable. This can be exploited to construct real-time estimates of the cycle that are less subject to ex-post revisions, forecast financial crises more reliably, and stimulate the build-up of bank capital before a crisis.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation