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2022 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2022 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Sep. 2023 Sep. 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 8.3 5.8 2.4 4.8 2.4 2.2
Standard deviation 0.3 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.7
Number of replies 55 56 48 46 37 44
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Sep. 2023 Sep. 2024 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.40.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.70.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.90.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.4 4.81.7
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 0.4 4.5 0.6 5.65.5
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 0.4 8.2 1.0 9.711.5
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 0.8 17.3 1.6 14.821.2
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 2.7 18.7 2.8 17.625.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 3.3 16.9 6.3 15.215.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 4.1 11.8 9.7 10.28.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 5.6 7.2 13.8 6.24.1
4.0 to 4.4% 0.8 10.5 4.9 14.0 4.02.2
4.5 to 4.9% 2.1 16.3 3.1 14.0 2.21.0
>5.0% 96.7 55.0 4.1 34.9 6.82.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Sep. 2023 Sep. 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 4.0 3.9 2.6 3.4 2.4 2.1
Standard deviation 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7
Number of replies 41 41 36 36 30 33
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Sep. 2023 Sep. 2024 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.30.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.91.0
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.9 2.02.8
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 0.4 3.6 1.5 4.17.0
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 1.4 8.6 3.4 9.215.1
1.5 to 1.9% 0.2 2.5 19.1 5.4 17.022.6
2.0 to 2.4% 0.4 7.3 22.9 9.5 20.920.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.8 10.5 18.1 15.9 18.714.4
3.0 to 3.4% 6.9 16.5 10.8 19.4 10.87.0
3.5 to 3.9% 34.6 21.4 5.7 13.3 6.23.3
4.0 to 4.4% 29.5 14.5 2.9 11.3 3.01.6
4.5 to 4.9% 17.0 11.8 1.4 8.4 1.81.0
>5.0% 9.4 13.5 4.0 10.6 4.73.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 2023 Q2 2024 Q2 2027
Mean point estimate 3.0 0.1 1.6 -0.5 1.5 1.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 58 57 50 45 36 41
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 2023 Q2 2024 Q2 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 10.7 1.8 24.2 3.91.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 12.6 1.5 19.5 1.71.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 19.8 2.7 17.0 3.52.9
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 23.0 5.8 14.2 7.16.6
0.5 to 0.9% 0.6 18.8 12.5 9.5 16.013.9
1.0 to 1.4% 1.1 8.0 18.6 5.6 20.224.1
1.5 to 1.9% 3.3 3.6 22.6 4.0 18.925.9
2.0 to 2.4% 10.9 1.8 19.2 2.5 14.412.7
2.5 to 2.9% 34.1 0.9 9.4 1.0 7.96.2
3.0 to 3.4% 40.5 0.4 3.7 0.5 3.73.0
3.5 to 3.9% 7.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.21.2
>4.0% 1.7 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.61.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Aug. 2023 Aug. 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
Number of replies 51 51 46 35 31 37
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Aug. 2023 Aug. 2024 2027
<4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.30.5
4.0 to 4.4% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.30.7
4.5 to 4.9% 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.81.4
5.0 to 5.4% 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 2.24.9
5.5 to 5.9% 2.8 3.9 6.4 4.5 6.512.4
6.0 to 6.4% 12.4 13.3 16.6 12.8 15.823.3
6.5 to 6.9% 60.7 30.2 27.7 25.7 25.221.1
7.0 to 7.4% 16.5 27.1 22.5 28.1 22.314.7
7.5 to 7.9% 4.0 13.9 11.7 14.9 12.79.1
8.0 to 8.4% 1.1 5.9 6.6 6.4 7.15.1
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.63.0
9.0 to 9.4% 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.71.7
9.5 to 9.9% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.81.0
10.0 to 10.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.30.5
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.3
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0