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Luca Tondo
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2026Details
- Abstract
- Safe-haven currencies provide investors with protection during periods of heightened market uncertainty and financial stress. This box examines the behaviour of the euro during geopolitical and policy-related risk-off episodes in 2025 and early 2026, including tariff announcements and the outbreak of war in the Middle East. While traditional safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen continued to attract inflows during periods of acute stress, the euro also displayed characteristics typically associated with safe-haven assets, reflecting changing perceptions of the euro area’s resilience and external position. The analysis highlights that strengthening and further integrating euro area capital markets would help insulate the euro area from exchange rate volatility and support the euro’s evolution into a stronger global international currency.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Trade turmoil in April 2025 saw a marked change in cross-asset behaviour compared with typical patterns. Notably, the US dollar depreciated strongly while US Treasury yields rose – the opposite of what usually happens in a risk-off environment. This prompted discussions as to whether the safe-haven properties of US dollar-denominated assets might be changing. This is particularly important for euro area financial stability since euro area investors hold US dollar-denominated securities in an amount equivalent to €6 trillion, which represents a significant share of their portfolios. As policy uncertainty remains high and alternative safe assets are scarce, investors’ risk management practices may be evolving. Immediate and decisive implementation of policies associated with the savings and investments union and the capital markets union would help foster an alternative market of safe assets for euro area and global investors.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange