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Konstantin M. Wacker

28 November 2014
In this paper, we develop financial conditions indices (FCIs) for 3 industrialized (US, Japan, UK) and 5 emerging (China, Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey) economies. The FCIs are formed as the principal component of a range of financial series for each country and are constructed to account for fluctuations in the business cycle. We show that these FCIs can help predict growth developments and thereby provide a potential leading indicator for the external environment of the Euro area. While we draw upon established methodological considerations in the literature, our main contribution lies in providing FCIs which are available for a broad set of countries, including many emerging economies, and whose movements can intuitively be interpreted. This latter fact allows us to track developments in the 8 investigated financial markets over the last decade.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
20 November 2013
This paper discusses the different concepts of measuring multinational corporations' activities to provide empirical researchers helpful guidelines about which measures to use in their work. I discuss which economic relations exist between the measures and show that a tight relationship can be established in theory and is indeed present in the actual data. A main conclusion is that foreign direct investment (FDI) stock data is generally recommendable to measure the importance of multinational firms but the preferred measure depends on the analytical question under investigation. The second part of the paper argues that estimating the determinants of multinational firms by using static equilibrium models can be quantitatively misleading and hence be problematic for our understanding of multinational firms and for the design of policy. In this context, I suggest some guidelines how data on multinationals could and should be used for empirical estimation.
JEL Code
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
F2 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts