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PRESS RELEASE

Results of the Q3 2017 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

21 July 2017
  • HICP inflation expectations have been revised downwards for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Longer-term HICP inflation expectations remain unchanged at 1.8%.
  • Expectations for HICP excluding food and energy have been revised upwards for 2017, but remained unchanged for forecast horizons further out.
  • Real GDP growth expectations have been revised upwards for 2017, 2018 and 2019.
  • Unemployment rate expectations have been revised downwards.

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2017 reported average point forecasts for inflation of 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.6% in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. That represents downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points at each of those three horizons. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which referred to 2022) remained unchanged at 1.8%.

Expectations for the annual inflation rate of HICP excluding food and energy were revised upwards for 2017, to 1.1%, but remained unchanged for all other forecast horizons (1.3% in 2018, 1.5% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2022).

SPF respondents revised their expectations for growth in euro area economic activity upwards for 2017 and 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.9%, and 1.8%, respectively. Expectations for economic growth in 2019 were revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6%. There were no changes to longer-term economic growth expectations (1.6%).

Unemployment rate expectations continued to show a declining trajectory. The average point forecasts were 9.2%, 8.8% and 8.4% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. Relative to the SPF for the second quarter of 2017, this represents downward revisions of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.3 percentage points for 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. The average point forecast for the longer-term unemployment rate (which referred to 2022) was revised downwards by 0.3 percentage points, to 8.1%.

Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q3 2017

(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

Survey horizon

2017

2018

2019

Longer term (1)

HICP inflation

 

 

 

 

SPF Q3 2017

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.8

Previous SPF (Q2 2017)

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

HICP inflation excluding food and energy

SPF Q3 2017

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

Previous SPF (Q2 2017)

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.7

Real GDP growth

 

 

 

 

SPF Q3 2017

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.6

Previous SPF (Q2 2017)

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

Unemployment rate (2)

 

 

 

 

SPF Q3 2017

9.2

8.8

8.4

8.1

Previous SPF (Q2 2017)

9.4

9.1

8.7

8.4

1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2022 in the Q3 2017 SPF and to 2021 in the Q2 2017 SPF.

2) As a percentage of the labour force.

For media enquiries, please contact Stefan Ruhkamp, tel.: +49 69 1344 5057.

Notes:

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