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Publications on Trade
- 25 August 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the annual Economic Policy Symposium "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy" organised by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole
- 12 July 2023
- THE ECB BLOGAfter decades of being both hero and villain, globalisation is said to be on the retreat. There is a common perception that companies are diversifying supply chains and relocating business closer to home. So, are we heading towards deglobalisation? We dig deeper and find that the data tell a different story.Details
- JEL Code
- F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
- 29 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks.
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 27 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted M.C. Govardhana Rangan on 24 February 2023
- 10 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
- 11 May 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management
- 22 April 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
- 31 March 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics
- 23 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box documents recent transport and input-related bottlenecks in global trade and shows how euro area countries have been particularly affected. An empirical analysis assesses the impact of supply bottlenecks on global and euro area export growth and estimates the cumulated shortfall for the level of goods exports to be 6.7% for the euro area and 2.3% for the rest of the world.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 10 May 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
- 2 December 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2020
- 13 September 2020
- SPEECHContribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during the session “Economic, financial and monetary impact of COVID-19 pandemic, and post-crisis options for policies and tools”
- 2 March 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the European Economics and Financial Centre
- 17 February 2020
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint European Central Bank, Irving Fisher Committee and Banco de Portugal conference on “Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?”
- 6 February 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 6 February 2020
- SPEECH
- 3 February 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Rallou Alexopoulou on 3 February 2020 and broadcast (in part) on 3 February 2020
- 24 January 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Francine Lacqua and broadcast on 24 January
- 23 January 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 23 January 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 9 January 2020
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England Workshop on "The Future of Inflation Targeting" in London, 9 January 2020
- 29 November 2019
- SPEECHClosing remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the VIII High-level Policy Dialogue between Eurosystem and Latin American central banks
- 22 November 2019
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress
- 14 November 2019
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, CEPR International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme Meeting
- 1 October 2019
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of California
- 16 September 2019
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bloomberg, London, 16 September 2019
- 7 September 2019
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at The European House-Ambrosetti Forum, Cernobbio, 7 September 2019
- 15 May 2019
- SPEECHSpeech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Steptoe Brussels Open Conference Series, Brussels, 15 May 2019
- 10 April 2019
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTMario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 April 2019EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 6 April 2019
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The Outlook for the Economy and Finance conference, Cernobbio, 6 April 2019
- 27 March 2019
- SPEECHSpeech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX', Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2019
- 7 March 2019
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTMario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 7 March 2019EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 22 February 2019
- SPEECHSpeech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, on the award of Laurea honoris causa in law from Università degli Studi di Bologna, Bologna, 22 February 2019
- 13 December 2018
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTMario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 13 December 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 16 November 2018
- SPEECHSpeech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Frankfurt am Main, 16 November 2018
- 17 September 2018
- SPEECHPresentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the Société Royale d’Economie Politique, Brussels, 17 September 2018
- 14 June 2018
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 26 April 2018
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTMario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 26 April 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 6 April 2018
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 29th edition of the workshop “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance”, “Villa d’Este”, Cernobbio, 6 April 2018
- 8 March 2018
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTMario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 8 March 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 16 February 2018
- SPEECHSpeech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, NBRM High Level International Conference on Monetary Policy and Asset Management, Skopje, 16 February 2018Annexes
- 16 February 2018
- ANNEX
- 15 February 2018
- SPEECHPresentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint French Treasury / IMF conference entitled “Transforming France’s economy and completing the integration of the Eurozone”, Paris, 15 February 2018