Magyar nyelven nem elérhető
Flavie Rousseau
Economics
- Division
Prices & Costs
- Current Position
-
Research Analyst
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 20 August 2026
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 54Details
- Abstract
- The ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation. However, domestically determined inflation features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism and in gauging underlying inflation, making it important to assess it regularly. The ECB monitors various proxies for domestically determined inflation, including: (i) “domestic inflation”, which aggregates inflation items with a low import share; and (ii) “Supercore” inflation, which aggregates inflation items found to be sensitive to the aggregate business cycle. This paper provides a detailed overview of the methodologies used to derive both these indicators and updates the relevant input data. It suggests refinements to the methodologies that would also make these measures more robust in future updates. In addition, it explains the changes in these indicators due to the introduction of a new classification of consumer goods and services (European Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (ECOICOP) version 2) for the compilation of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). First, on domestic inflation, the paper explains the new underlying data on the import share of inflation items made available since the publication of its methodology, and provides an update, combined with a few methodological changes (for example, moving to a constant composition of the included items). Second, with regard to Supercore inflation, the paper explains the challenges of identifying a cyclical inflation indicator for the euro area, especially in the light of the recent large shocks, and explores modelling approaches. It proposes some refinements to the previous methodology, while keeping a Phillips curve approach as a focal point in the analysis. For both indicators, the paper presents the updated indicators and some key properties.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 7 August 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Real wages have been increasing in recent quarters, recovering after their decline during the period of high inflation in 2022. By the first quarter of 2025 – when deflated by price indices that reflect consumption patterns, such as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and the private consumption deflator – real wages had almost returned to the levels recorded prior to the inflation surge. By contrast, when deflated by price indices that reflect the prices charged by domestic firms (such as the GDP deflator and sectoral value-added deflators), real wages have already surpassed the levels achieved before the high-inflation period. This reflects the fact that in the past few years, the rise in the cost of living has been higher than that in the prices charged domestically by euro area producers.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
- 1 August 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Available surveys of selling price expectations of firms for the euro area point to price dynamics that have substantially moderated after the recent large inflationary shock, albeit with a more sluggish adjustment for services than for goods. This box focuses on services and investigates the leading indicator properties of the forward-looking survey data provided by the European Commission. These data tend to anticipate notable turning points in services inflation. In addition, in a forecasting exercise, we find that their leading properties manifest in a non-linear way and are particularly useful in unusual times, such as during the recent inflation spike.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations