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  • PRESS RELEASE

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2022

22 July 2022

  • HICP inflation expectations revised up across all horizons
  • Real GDP growth expectations revised down for the nearer term, but otherwise broadly stable
  • Unemployment rate expectations revised down for all horizons

In the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2022, respondents revised up their inflation expectations for all horizons. For 2022, 2023 and 2024, these stand at 7.3%, 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, 1.3, 1.2 and 0.2 percentage points higher compared with the previous survey round. According to respondents, the upward revisions mainly reflect higher energy and food prices, but also the stronger than expected pass-through of input cost increases. Longer-term inflation expectations (for 2027) stood at 2.2% on average, revised up by another 0.1 percentage point.

Real GDP growth expectations were revised down from the second quarter of 2022 onwards, as well as for 2023, but remained the same for 2024. Longer-term growth expectations were revised up marginally. Respondents noted that the stronger than expected outturn in the first quarter of 2022 largely offset the weaker dynamics expected for the other quarters. They report that the main factors contributing to this bleaker growth outlook include intensifying energy price pressures, the tightening of monetary policy around the world and the effect of inflation on the purchasing power of households. They noted that although the supply chain bottlenecks linked to the COVID-19 crisis have eased somewhat, they are still acting as a drag on the global economy. By contrast, fiscal measures against rising energy prices have cushioned the energy price shock to some extent, and the effects of the reopening of the economy have also played out positively.

Notwithstanding the downward revisions to expected GDP growth, unemployment rate expectations were again revised down for all horizons. Respondents expect the unemployment rate to decline from 6.7% in 2022 to 6.4% by 2027. Longer-term unemployment expectations are at their lowest level in the history of the ECB SPF, which started in 1999.

Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2022

(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

Survey horizon

2022

2023

2024

Longer term(1)

HICP inflation

 

 

 

 

Q3 2022 SPF

7.3

3.6

2.1

2.2

Previous SPF (Q2 2022)

6.0

2.4

1.9

2.1

HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco

 

 

 

Q3 2022 SPF

3.6

2.0

2.3

2.2

Previous SPF (Q2 2022)

2.9

2.3

2.0

1.9

Real GDP growth

 

 

 

Q3 2022 SPF

2.8

1.5

1.8

1.5

Previous SPF (Q2 2022)

2.9

2.3

1.8

1.4

Unemployment rate(2)

 

 

 

Q3 2022 SPF

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.4

Previous SPF (Q2 2022)

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2027 in the Q3 2022 round and 2026 in the Q2 2022 round.

2) As a percentage of the labour force.

For media enquiries, please contact Silvia Margiocco, tel.: +49 69 1344 6619.

Notes

  • The SPF survey for the third quarter of 2022 was conducted between 1 and 5 July 2022, with 56 responses received. The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The participants in the survey are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 8 September 2022.
  • Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-2014: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
  • The SPF report and data are available via the SPF webpage and the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.
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