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Publications on Monetary policy
- 27 September 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 22 September 2023
- 26 September 2023
- SPEECHWelcome address (presentation slides) at the joint European Central Bank - Banque de France - Centre for Economic Policy Research conference "Monetary Policy Challenges for European Macroeconomies" in Paris
- 22 September 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jennifer Schonberger
- 22 September 2023
- SPEECHDinner speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money Marketeers of New York University
- 20 September 2023
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Springtij Forum
- 20 September 2023
- SPEECHSlides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Association of German Banks
- 15 September 2023
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Annexes
- 15 September 2023
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 14 September 2023EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 September 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 14 September 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2023
- PODCAST
- 14 September 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 September 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 4 September 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar organised by the European Economics & Financial Centre
- 31 August 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research on “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2023”
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews Eurosystem staff projections of public wages, focusing on their response to inflation. It concludes that, after experiencing a large cut in real terms in 2022, public wages are projected to grow cumulatively over the period 2023-25 at rates higher than inflation. It also shows that projections of public wages reflect substantial heterogeneity at country level. Projected nominal public wage growth is stronger in countries that have experienced high levels of inflation in the recent past, even in the absence of institutional arrangements for automatic price indexation of public wages, but is more restrained in countries with high levels of public debt.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) shows that consumers’ expectations for interest rates on mortgages and savings accounts have increased, in line with actual interest rate developments. Since June 2022 an increasing share of respondents, particularly among those with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) which are generally more directly exposed to interest rate changes, has favoured lower interest rates. A growing share of households with an ARM also expects difficulties in meeting their mortgage payments in the near future and intends to refinance the mortgage contract. In line with their higher exposure to interest rate changes, spending expectations of respondents with an ARM are more sensitive to changes in expected interest rates. Overall, the results of the CES suggest that consumers have been progressively incorporating the impact of higher interest rates into their spending decisions.
- JEL Code
- E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 9 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article presents a model-based assessment of the short to medium-term economic impact of carbon pricing aimed at mitigating climate change. It addresses the high level of uncertainty in gauging the effects of carbon price increases by employing a suite of macroeconomic models. Under the main scenario, the loss in euro area annual GDP growth is contained and the inflation impact is modest, implying a limited output/inflation trade-off for monetary policy. The scenario supports the transition to a low-carbon economy, but the implied reduction in carbon emissions makes only a limited contribution to achieving the EU’s intermediate emission reduction target for 2030. Accordingly, reaching the EU’s climate goals will require a mixture of ambitious carbon pricing, additional regulatory action and technological innovation.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 9 August 2023
- THE ECB BLOGWords matter as much as actions for central banks. Because changes in tone can presage shifts in monetary policy. We have created an index to measure and compare the tone of policy communication by the ECB and the US Fed. This ECB Blog post talks you through the findings.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
- 8 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the factors determining household perceptions of the attractiveness of housing as an investment. It finds that these perceptions differ depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of households. Using a linear probability regression model, the box also shows that higher perceptions of housing as a good investment are associated with higher expectations for economic growth, personal income growth and house price growth, as well as lower expectations for inflation and mortgage rates. Combining the model estimates with the average expectations of households surveyed in the CES at each point in time, the box derives an expectations-based indicator of households’ perceptions of housing as a good investment. This indicator has declined significantly since June 2021, mainly driven by expectations of higher mortgage interest rates, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions in general.
- JEL Code
- R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
- 3 August 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bocconi University
- 30 July 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Anne Cheyvialle and Florentin Collomp on 28 July 2023
- 28 July 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 26 June and 5 July, aggregate activity continued to stagnate in the second quarter of 2023, with differences across sectors still notable. Activity declined in the construction and intermediate goods sectors and in related transport and logistics services. However, consumer spending was proving more resilient than many expected. The growth rate of selling prices continued to decelerate, especially in the industrial sector, as non-labour input costs stabilised. Expectations for wage growth remained strong but showed some signs of moderation when looking forwards to 2024.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 27 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 27 July 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 27 July 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 27 July 2023EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 27 July 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 27 July 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 27 July 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 27 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 31 August 2023
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 25 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 25 July 2023
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 12 July 2023
- SPEECHRemarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Panel Discussion on Banking Solvency and Monetary Policy, NBER Summer Institute 2023 Macro, Money and Financial Frictions Workshop
- 7 July 2023
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at King’s College London
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box provides an analysis of the retrenchment recorded in euro area external financial flows in 2022 – the largest since the global financial crisis – making use of new, more granular data published in the euro area balance of payments and international investment position statistics. The retrenchment was most pronounced in portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Euro area investors’ retrenchment in portfolio investment in 2022 was mainly driven by investment funds, while insurance corporations and pension funds offset the reversal in outflows to some extent. As regards foreign portfolio investment in the euro area in 2022, net purchases of euro area investment fund shares dried up almost completely, while foreign investors’ appetite for euro area debt securities started to return. The retrenchment in FDI mainly reflected “financialised” transactions by multinational enterprises vis-à-vis affiliated “other financial institutions” in euro area financial centres, while FDI flows to the non-financial corporate sector remained more stable.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- According to the recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 6 March and 14 April 2023, euro area firms expect their selling prices to increase on average by 6.1% over the next 12 months. Selling price increases are expected to be higher for firms in the retail sector than for those in the non-retail sector. Input costs (mainly related to materials and energy) and financing costs are important factors for all firms when setting future selling prices. For firms in both the retail and non-retail sectors, expected increases in selling prices are higher for firms that anticipate an increase in their turnover. Manufacturing firms with higher past producer price increases expect a smaller increase in future selling prices over the next 12 months.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the wage share in the euro area, which has edged down since the start of the pandemic, as workers have so far not been able to recover real wage losses amidst high inflation and robust profit margins. The decline is in most sectors, except for less contact-intensive private services and public services. The reduced wage share suggests that part of the recent terms-of-trade shock and its impact on consumer price inflation has been absorbed by workers and that second-round effects from wages on inflation have so far been relatively moderate.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2023, from 8 February to 9 May 2023.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXHow have unit profits contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures?Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at how unit profits have contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures, using national accounts data up to the first quarter of 2023. It analyses the contribution made by unit profits using a broad profit indicator based on gross operating surplus and mixed income, as well as more narrowly defined profit indicators derived from the national accounts (which are closer to business profits). It also shows how the current signals from unit profits based on national accounts data correspond to those of indicators of mark-ups and profit margins derived from corporate accounts. This analysis shows that unit profits have grown strongly of late and made a visible contribution to domestic price pressures in the euro area. This is true for both the broad indicator of unit profits and more narrowly defined profit indicators. The box also shows that in an environment characterised by surging intermediate consumption costs, it is possible for unit profits to increase strongly and have an upward effect on inflation while mark-ups and profit margin indicators derived from corporate accounts remain broadly unchanged.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses sentiment indices of profits and investment that have been compiled from a new data source, namely earnings call transcripts of listed euro area firms. It shows that these data series have correlated well with standard investment and profit series over the past two decades. It also demonstrates that profit sentiment has improved since the third quarter of 2021, while corporate investment sentiment rose slightly further in the second quarter of 2023, despite tightening financing conditions. At the sectoral level, profit sentiment in the services and utilities sectors has held up better than it has in the manufacturing sector since last year. In addition, an indicator of financial risk extracted from the earnings call data shows that firms are highly concerned about rising financing costs and perceive tighter financing conditions as a clear risk.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Since the outbreak of the pandemic, households in the euro area and the United States have accumulated a remarkable stock of savings, which exceeds the pre-pandemic trend and provides a boost to private consumption. This box documents how, in the euro area, the stock of excess savings is mainly held in illiquid assets, which are not readily available for consumption. It also shows that, despite some differences in the euro area and the United States, excess savings are concentrated among wealthy individuals, who generally have a lower marginal propensity to consume. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, the box shows that the consumption impulse from the immediate use of such excess savings is dampened by the anticipation of a future expansion in demand, as households smooth their consumption patterns over time. Overall, the results suggest that the consumption impulse from excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has declined in both economies since the second half of 2021 and has been lower in the euro area compared with the United States.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 27 June 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 on “Macroeconomic stabilisation in a volatile inflation environment” in Sintra, Portugal
- 26 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Since 2020 the euro area has been hit by a succession of extraordinary adverse shocks: the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global supply chain strains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the related energy price hike. This article reviews the main developments in economic activity between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2022. Empirical analysis shows that demand forces related to the reopening of the economy, the strong policy support over that period and, more recently, the absorption of the adverse shocks have contributed to the post-pandemic recovery.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 19 June 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Euro50 Group conference on “New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment”
- 19 June 2023
- SPEECHBackground slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, for dialogue with Matteo Maggiori on the occasion of the award of the Germán Bernácer Prize
- 16 June 2023
- SPEECHRemarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the G30 dinner in Amsterdam
- 15 June 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 15 June 2023EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 15 June 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 15 June 2023
- PODCAST
- 15 June 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 15 June 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 13 July 2023
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 7 June 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Wouter Vervenne and Kris van Hamme on 31 May 2023
- 2 June 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 1 June 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “Deutscher Sparkassentag 2023”, Hanover
- 25 May 2023
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European ParliamentRelated
- 19 May 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy in the honour of Charles Goodhart
- 19 May 2023
- THE ECB BLOGAt times, media reports on ECB monetary policy refer to information from unidentified Eurosystem sources. This ECB Blog post takes a closer look at such leaks. They tend to go against prevailing trends in short-term rates and can trigger major market reactions even though they are not generally informative about upcoming decisions.Details
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 14 May 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
- 10 May 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Shogo Akagawa on 8 May 2023
- 9 May 2023
- SPEECHPresentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hessischer Kreis e. V.
- 4 May 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 May 2023EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 4 May 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 4 May 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 4 May 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 1 June 2023
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 2 May 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 2 May 2023
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 26 April 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 26 April 2023
- EURO MONEY MARKET
- 25 April 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 25 April 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 18 April 2023
- 24 April 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 20 April 2023
- 19 April 2023
- SPEECHSlides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) in Mannheim
- 19 April 2023
- SPEECHKeynote address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Enterprise Ireland Summit 2023
- 14 April 2023
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-seventh meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 6 April 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gregory Savva on 5 April
- 5 April 2023
- SPEECHLecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Cyprus
- 1 April 2023
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 34th edition of “The outlook for the economy and finance”, organized by the European House – Ambrosetti
- 30 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2022, from 2 November 2022 to 7 February 2023.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 30 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 29 March 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 22 March by Kolja Rudzio
- 28 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- In 2022 the ECB conducted a climate risk stress test of some of the major financial exposures on the Eurosystem balance sheet. This box details the key features of the exercise and its main outcomes.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 27 March 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by Columbia University and SGH Macro Advisors
- 26 March 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Daniel Murray
- 22 March 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Global shocks, policy spillovers and geo-strategic risks: how to coordinate policies” at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII ConferenceAnnexes
- 22 March 2023
- SPEECH
- 22 March 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers XXIII” conference
- 20 March 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 20 March 2023
- ANNEX
- 20 March 2023
- ANNEX
- 16 March 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 March 2023EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 16 March 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 16 March 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 16 March 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 20 April 2023
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 6 March 2023
- SPEECHLecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Trinity College Dublin
- 5 March 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Adolfo Lorente, from El Correo
- 2 March 2023
- SPEECHSpeech and Slides by Isabel Schnabel at Money Market Contact Group (MMCG)Annexes
- 2 March 2023
- SPEECH
- 1 March 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nicholas Owen
- 28 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on Friday, 24 February 2023 by Balázs Korányi and Frank Siebelt
- 27 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted M.C. Govardhana Rangan on 24 February 2023
- 25 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari
- 17 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Alexander Weber on 15 February 2023
- 16 February 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by the Centre for European Reform, the Delegation of the European Union to the United Kingdom and the ECB Representative Office in LondonAnnexes
- 16 February 2023
- SPEECH
- 16 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box updates the analysis published in April 2022 that reviewed the Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections published since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The accuracy of short-term inflation projections made by Eurosystem and ECB staff deteriorated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, projection accuracy improved in the final quarter of 2022. Errors related to conditioning assumptions for energy commodity prices and the pass-through of those prices to consumer prices (complicated by the uncertain impact of fiscal policy measures) continue to account for a significant albeit declining share of the total staff inflation projection errors. The remaining errors are likely to relate to the impact of global supply chain bottlenecks and reopening effects following the pandemic. In addition, the exceptional size of commodity price shocks may have led to a much faster pass-through, while the high inflationary environment may have enabled easier repricing and required faster resetting of prices than had been observed in the past. In comparative terms, other international institutions and private forecasters have under-predicted short-term euro area inflation to a similar extent. Eurosystem and ECB staff are continuing to re-evaluate their models to further improve the accuracy of their projection techniques and to provide additional analyses that can inform projections in times of high uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
- 15 February 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
- 13 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the relation between fiscal policy and inflation, with a focus on the euro area and the period 2022-25 (corresponding to the horizon of the December 2022 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area). Overall, the article concludes that, even without the discretionary policy response to the high energy prices and inflation (assessed at close to 2% of GDP over the 2022-23 period), the euro area budget balance could be negatively affected by the current high inflation beyond the short term. This is primarily explained by the nature of the inflation shock, which has a substantial external, energy-driven component, and its large size. Such factors lead to more limited gains on the revenue side of the budget, which in turn can easily be outweighed in the following years by extra spending pressures. In terms of the euro area debt-to-GDP ratio, the analysis shows that a negative impact on economic activity from an adverse supply shock, given the monetary policy reaction, may outweigh the positive initial impact of higher inflation through the denominator effect. The discretionary fiscal policy measures that have so far been adopted to shield the economy from the impact of high inflation in turn lower the inflationary pressures over the 2022-23 period, with a broad estimated reversal of the effect afterwards. The degree to which these fiscal measures will influence price dynamics is highly uncertain.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 10 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 10 February 2023
- 8 February 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra and Meike Schreiber
- 7 February 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Webinar Finanzwende
- 7 February 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 4 and 12 January 2023, aggregate activity had broadly stagnated or contracted mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but with notable differences across sectors. The short-term outlook for activity remained subdued with much uncertainty, but there was increased hope of a pick-up in 2023. Selling prices continued to increase in aggregate, but at a moderating pace and with more variability across sectors and a less certain outlook. Wage growth was now the predominant cost concern, although wage expectations remained broadly unchanged from the previous survey round. Despite greater wage cost pressure and very high uncertainty regarding the future path of energy prices, most contacts expected lower price growth in 2023 than in 2022.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 2 February 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 2 February 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 2 February 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 2 February 2023EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 2 February 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 2 February 2023
- PODCAST
- 2 February 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 2 February 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 2 February 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 2 March 2023
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 31 January 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 31 January 2023
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 24 January 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andreas Kröner, Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
- 17 January 2023
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Wolf on 12 January 2023
- 12 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the information that the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) provides on future growth in loans to firms and households for house purchase in the euro area. The survey has proved to be invaluable for assessing the passthrough of monetary policy to borrowers via banks, for obtaining early information on turning points in lending conditions, and for understanding changes in loan demand and lending conditions during exceptional periods, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. First, simple cross-correlations reveal a strong relation between BLS indicators and actual loan growth several quarters ahead. Second, BLS indicators help improve loan forecasts. In terms of loans to firms, the credit standards and loan demand reported in the BLS provide additional information that can be used when forecasting lending, while for housing loans, forecasts are improved by taking into account reported demand in particular. Finally, bank-level data confirm that BLS responses also reveal information on loan developments at the individual bank level. Overall, recent developments regarding BLS credit standards and loan demand point to a deceleration of growth in loans to firms and households in the coming quarters.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 12 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the liquidity conditions and the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2022, from 27 July to 1 November.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 12 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at the link between firms’ financing conditions and the euro area business cycle. For information on financing conditions of firms, the box uses results from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). Monetary policy is shown to affect changes in firms’ financing gaps – the difference between the change in demand for and the change in the availability of external financing – as well as their expectations about future availability of finance. At the current juncture, firms report increasing financing gaps and a deterioration in their expectations about the availability of finance in the period ahead. Such responses from firms are associated with stronger concerns about finance at the firm level. Moreover, financing conditions matter for the aggregate business cycle: increasing financing gaps and lower expected availability of finance foreshadow lower GDP growth.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 12 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- On 1 January 2023 Croatia adopted the euro and became the 20th member of the euro area. The Croatian economy is expected to benefit from the elimination of currency risk, as well as lower transaction and borrowing costs. After its accession to the EU in 2013, Croatia made significant progress in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and achieving convergence towards the euro area. It now needs to continue with those reform efforts in order to fully reap the benefits of the euro and to allow adjustment mechanisms to operate efficiently within the enlarged currency area.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 12 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This article provides an initial review of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), with a focus on its objectives, implementation, and effectiveness. The ECB launched the PEPP in March 2020 in response to the extraordinary economic and financial shock brought about by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Implementation of the programme was flexible, spreading purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. The PEPP was instrumental in supporting market functioning and the transmission of the monetary policy stance, and thus in countering pandemic-related risks to price stability.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- 11 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the impact of the recent increase in energy prices on real consumer spending in the euro area. The empirical framework relies on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and identifies adverse energy supply shocks that lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade, as captured by the ratio between the GDP deflator and the private consumption deflator, and a decline in real consumer spending. It finds that energy supply shocks have significantly weighed on total private consumption in recent quarters, with durable goods consumption being particularly affected.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 10 January 2023
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm
- 10 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
- 9 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines cross-country developments in compensation per employee since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic has strongly affected wage developments across euro area countries, reflecting standard cyclical and structural determinants as well as novel factors, such as differences in the size and impact of the shock or the specificities of national job retention schemes.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 9 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This article discusses wage developments and the main factors that have influenced them since the start of the pandemic. First, it reviews developments in a broad range of wage measures for the euro area and discusses their current usefulness as signals of wage pressures. In this context, it illustrates how the growth of compensation per employee was adjusted for the impact of job retention schemes. Second, the article looks at how wage developments have differed across sectors, reflecting the heterogeneous impact of the pandemic shock. Finally, it discusses the impact of inflation on purchasing power of wage incomes and real wage costs in the euro area by examining developments in real consumer and producer wages for the economy as a whole and in its main sectors.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
- 6 January 2023
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in panel discussion “Global Economic Outlook” organised by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) at 2023 ASSA Annual Meeting, New Orleans
- 27 December 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted on 16 December 2022
- 24 December 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 16 December 2022
- 22 December 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Éric Albert on 15 December and published on 22 December
- 15 December 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 15 December 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 15 December 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 15 December 2022
- PODCAST
- 15 December 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 15 December 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 19 January 2023
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 7 December 2022
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) annual conference on “Global Perspective 2023”
- 6 December 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Ninfole
- 28 November 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 28 November 2022
- SPEECH
- 28 November 2022
- SPEECH
- 25 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOGIdentifying the medium-term inflation path in the current environment of high inflation, ongoing energy and pandemic-related shocks and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a diagnostic challenge. In his ECB Blog post Philip R. Lane, Member of the ECB’s Executive Board, describes some of the key analytical issues involved.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
e52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
e58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 24 November 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference
- 21 November 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 16 November 2022
- 18 November 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the European Banking Congress
- 16 November 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 16 November 2022
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
- 15 November 2022
- SPEECHDinner speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the 25th Euro Finance Week, Deutsche Bundesbank
- 14 November 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 25th Frankfurt Euro Finance Week
- 14 November 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEPR-EABCN conference on “Finding the Gap: Output Gap Measurement in the Euro Area” held at the European University InstituteAnnexes
- 14 November 2022
- SPEECH
- 10 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box provides an analysis of recent developments in trade and financial linkages between the euro area and Russia as recorded in the euro area balance of payments. The euro area current account balance vis-à-vis Russia turned from a small surplus into a deficit of 0.5% of euro area GDP between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of this year, thus contributing significantly to the reduction in the euro area’s current account surplus over the same period. The bilateral current account deficit vis-à-vis Russia increased on account of the rising value of nominal imports, largely of energy products, and lower exports driven by EU sanctions. Euro area financial exposures to Russia before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were relatively limited, with foreign direct investment (FDI) being the most important component. Since the start of the war euro area holdings of Russian assets have declined, while liabilities vis-à-vis Russia have increased due to the impact of EU sanctions.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 10 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Carry-over effects describe how much the average growth rate in a given period is affected by developments in the preceding period. The most common application is to quantify how much annual average GDP growth is affected by quarterly developments in the previous year. This box applies this concept to quarterly changes in GDP by interpolating quarterly GDP into monthly observations using monthly indicators. In selecting the appropriate indicator variables, a production perspective is adopted by using industrial production, construction production and an indicator for services production. This sectoral approach is particularly useful in the current environment, given the differences in how sectors are being affected by the sharp and sudden fluctuations in economic conditions.
- JEL Code
- E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
- 10 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Euro area motor vehicle output fell by approximately one-third between June 2018 and July 2022. This can be explained by factors associated with the more stringent emissions tests implemented in the EU, the EU regulation on carbon dioxide emissions, the transition towards electric vehicles, supply chain disruptions, the rise in energy costs and, more recently, the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. Euro area car exports also decreased at the same time. The transition to greener motor vehicles and the future evolution of supply bottlenecks are key factors shaping the outlook for euro area car production and exports in the coming years.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
- 9 November 2022
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association COP27 side event on “Investing in and financing the acceleration of sustainable development in a net zero scenario” in Sharm El-Sheikh
- 9 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The strong increase in euro area HICP inflation over the past 18 months has placed additional emphasis on monitoring and understanding the behaviour of consumers’ inflation expectations. Data from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey show that, after HICP inflation rose above 2% in July 2021, consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations started to move upwards too. However, this rise in shorter-term (one-year ahead) inflation expectations was much more pronounced than that of more medium-term (three-years ahead) expectations and the term structure of consumers’ inflation expectations remained strongly downward sloping. There is some evidence that the responsiveness of inflation expectations to inflation perceptions has increased recently, but it remains noticeably lower for medium-term inflation expectations. Consumers’ uncertainty surrounding their inflation expectations has also grown. Overall, the upward movement in expectations, the increase in uncertainty surrounding them and rising sensitivity of medium-term expectations to perceived current inflation all call for continued close monitoring and analysis.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 9 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the impact of the recent rise in inflation on low-income households in the euro area. Low-income households face significantly higher effective inflation rates than high-income households, due to a different composition of their consumption basket. Moreover, they are more liquidity-constrained and have less room to buffer sharp increases in their cost of living. Survey-based evidence shows that low-income households perceive the recent government measures aimed at easing the burden of higher energy prices as less adequate than high-income households do. This could suggest that there is potential for government support measures to be more targeted towards low-income households.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 8 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This article surveys the literature on consumption risk sharing, focusing on the euro area but also presenting evidence for individual countries, including the United States. The literature finds that risk sharing is weaker in the euro area than between regions or federal states in the individual countries examined. However, our analysis of the response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis indicates that risk sharing in the euro area has been more resilient in this period than it was during the global financial crisis of 2008-10. It suggests that the provision of timely large-scale policy support reduced the risk of cross-border financial flows coming to a sudden halt, thus preventing a severe disruption of private risk sharing. This experience speaks in favour of establishing a common public risk-sharing mechanism in the euro area and completing the banking union and capital markets union. At the same time, the right balance must be found between additional, centralised euro area stabilisation and risk-sharing instruments and credible enforcement of fiscal rules to anchor market expectations of sound public finances.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 8 November 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 3 November 2022
- 7 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This Box provides an assessment of trends in European trade in goods and the tourism sector in 2022 using Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI). For goods trade, the analysis shows that bottlenecks in the international supply chain tend to precede upward pressures on import prices for intermediate goods. These pressures are now slowly easing as export demand weakens and supply chains adjust. For services, an earlier surge in bookings in the tourism sector has led to higher prices in that sector. Higher input prices in the tourism and recreation sector, waning pent-up demand for travel, falling real incomes and rising uncertainty may start to dampen demand for European tourism and recreation trade in services in the coming months.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
- 4 November 2022
- SPEECHLecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Eesti Pank and dedicated to Professor Ragnar Nurkse
- 4 November 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Energy Prospectives event organised by IESE Business School and Naturgy Foundation
- 3 November 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Money Market Conference
- 1 November 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Žanete Hāka
- 31 October 2022
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime
- 28 October 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 28 October 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 69 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 26 September and 6 October 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of this year. Parts of the manufacturing sector had suffered declining sales and production, while in others, production growth was sustained by long order books and easing supply constraints. Services activity was more resilient, supported by digitalisation and tourism. The outlook was for a deterioration in activity in the fourth quarter. Price dynamics remained very buoyant in the third quarter, not least given energy cost pressures. However, an increasing number of firms did say that prices in their sector were either at, or nearing, a peak. Wage pressures continued to build and were increasingly becoming an additional cost concern for many firms.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 27 October 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 27 October 2022
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 27 October 2022
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 27 October 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 27 October 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 27 October 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 27 October 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 27 October 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 27 October 2022
- PODCAST
- 27 October 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 27 October 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 27 October 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 October 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 November 2022
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 19 October 2022
- THE ECB BLOGThe ECB Blog investigates how change in the policy rate affects wages very differently depending on characteristics of employees and firms, such as firms’ size and their access to credit. Results show that the effects are symmetric during times of easing and tightening.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Related- 28 July 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 14 October 2022
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-sixth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 14 October 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dalius Simenas on 10 October 2022
- 11 October 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the SUERF, CGEG|COLUMBIA|SIPA, EIB, SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy”
- 10 October 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 7 October 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In this box we decompose components of HICP excluding energy and food inflation into those driven predominantly by demand and those driven predominantly by supply shocks. This approach to monitoring inflation was originally developed for the United States. When adapted to the euro area it reveals that both supply and demand factors have contributed strongly to the increase in HICPX inflation since the second half of 2021. Supply factors were dominant at the beginning of the upturn in inflation in the second half of 2021, but demand factors have gradually increased in importance and contributed to a similar extent as supply factors to HICPX inflation over recent months. In recent months, the main contribution to non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation has come from components predominantly driven by supply shocks, whereas services inflation has stemmed more from components predominantly driven by demand.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 30 September 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the “Fight against inflation” at the IV Edition Foro La Toja
- 29 September 2022
- SPEECHLuis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future: the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policiesRemarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at a panel at the conference “Future of Central Banking” organised by Lietuvos bankas and the Bank for International Settlements
- 28 September 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament conference on “Greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation”
- 26 September 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 26 September 2022
- SPEECH
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In-house credit assessment systems (ICASs) of euro area national central banks are an important source of credit risk assessments for credit claims from non-financial corporates. These credit claims can be pledged as collateral in monetary policy operations. Climate change and the transition to a greener economy can affect the growth, financial performance, market position and business model of a company, and hence its creditworthiness. Therefore, as part of the ECB’s action plan for including climate change considerations in monetary policy implementation, the Governing Council has agreed a set of common minimum standards on incorporating these risks in ICAS rating processes. Assessments of climate change risks will mainly focus on the companies most affected and those which pose the highest risk to the Eurosystem. The analysis will be performed at firm level whenever sufficient data is available, using state-of-the-art methods and metrics. All ICASs will comply with the common minimum standards from end-2024 onwards.
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2022 from 20 April to 26 July.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 22 September 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Florian Schmidt on 15 September 2022
- 21 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Mitigating climate change requires sustained and multipronged policy efforts, as a matter of urgency. Many initiatives to mitigate climate change are directly linked to fiscal policy, mainly through public spending or taxation. This article provides an overview of existing, required and expected fiscal climate policy efforts to advance the green transition in the euro area, focusing on carbon pricing and green public investment. It also looks at the distributional consequences of carbon pricing.
- JEL Code
- H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 20 September 2022
- SPEECHKarl Otto Pöhl Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handel, Industrie und Wissenschaft
- 20 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The strong rise in inflation has renewed attention on longer-term inflation expectations. The distribution of individual longer-term inflation expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has recently recentred around 2%, although some respondents have lately raised their inflation expectations clearly above 2%. Some commentators have argued that movements in the upper “tails” of the inflation expectations’ distribution might signal a possible de-anchoring of expectations. This box takes a closer look at recent movements in long-term inflation expectations, especially of those forecasters currently in the upper tail of the distribution. We find that (a) historically, this tail group's longer-term inflation expectations have been higher, more volatile and more sensitive to realised inflation than the expectations of the rest of respondents, (b) respondents in this tail group perceive the current inflation spike to be more persistent, and (c) the evidence suggests that their expectations have not led movements in those of the rest of the professional forecasters.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 20 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary decrease in the labour market activity of older workers in the euro area. Our analysis finds that a part of the decrease was driven by a pandemic-induced shift in the retirement decisions of older workers, affecting around 175,000 people. This represents 0.5% of the labour force aged 55-74 retiring earlier than planned due to the pandemic. The heightened economic uncertainty and health risks stemming from the pandemic persuaded some older workers either to bide their time before returning to work or to retire early. Early retirement was most pronounced for workers in poorer health, stressing the growing importance of health risks for labour market developments.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
- 19 September 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 19 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Against a background of rising mortgage rates, this box investigates the impact of changes in mortgage rates on euro area house prices and housing investment through linear and non-linear local projections. The model evidence suggests that housing market dynamics are very sensitive to mortgage rates, especially in a low interest rate environment. At the current juncture, this points to a significant risk of a marked slowdown of the euro area housing market. Yet, pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences, which are not captured by the models, could counteract higher mortgage rates and could potentially increase uncertainty surrounding the housing outlook.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 16 September 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 9 September
- 15 September 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the CIRSF (Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector) Annual International Conference 2022 “The future of the EU financial system in a new geo-economic context”
- 14 September 2022
- SPEECHOpening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Meeting of the Money Market Contact Group
- 14 September 2022
- THE ECB BLOGWomen and men shop differently and have different perceptions of prices and inflation. This ECB Blog post examines how inflation expectations are formed and revised across gender and why that matters for central banks.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
Related- 28 July 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 24 August 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 12 September 2022
- SPEECHWelcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the seventh ECB Annual Research Conference
- 8 September 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 8 September 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 8 September 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 8 September 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 8 September 2022
- PODCAST
- 8 September 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 8 September 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 8 September 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 6 October 2022
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 29 August 2022
- SPEECHRemarks for high-level panel “High Inflation and Other Challenges for Monetary Policy” by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Annual Meeting 2022 of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), Barcelona
- 27 August 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
- 24 August 2022
- THE ECB BLOGCommunication with the general public matters for monetary policy. Although it is hard for central banks to reach out to the wider public, a recent study shows that explaining the inflation target and the ECB strategy to consumers can enhance its credibility.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Related- 13 October 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 10 August 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 14 September 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 18 August 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt on 16 August 2022
- 10 August 2022
- THE ECB BLOGAs part of our monetary policy strategy review we adopted a new symmetric 2% inflation target. One year on, we examine how the strategy review has helped anchor financial analysts’ inflation expectations. We also show that recent policy normalisation is grounded in our strategy.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
e31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Related- 24 August 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 3 August 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews wage share dynamics and potential second-round effects on inflation at times of energy price increases. Compared to a well-known episode with some similar features – the OPEC oil embargo in October 1973 – recent energy price increases have so far had limited implications for labour income and the GDP deflator. This contained impact reflects the relatively mild terms-of-trade loss and subdued real wage dynamics today compared to the 1970s. However, the experience in the United States in both episodes shows that significant increases in the GDP deflator may arise even in the presence of weak real wage growth. A model-based analysis finds that the transmission of energy price increases to inflation, and in particular the emergence of second-round effects, has been more limited or even absent since the start of monetary union. Nevertheless, high and persistent inflation increases the risk of second-round effects materialising via higher wages and profit margins.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 3 August 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This article takes stock of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on business investment dynamics in the euro area and presents evidence on the main drivers of investment, as well as the opportunities, challenges and risks for its recovery, also in investment with respect to digitalisation and greening needs. Euro area business investment fell sharply in the first half of 2020. The considerable rebound and subsequent investment dynamics have been heterogenous across countries and types of investment, and the rebound has been overall somewhat weaker in the euro area than in the United States. While the recovery has been helped by substantial support from monetary and fiscal policy, headwinds such as increased uncertainty, commodity price rises and lingering supply bottlenecks risk delaying investment decisions and leading companies to further increase savings. Meanwhile, spending on further digitalising and “greening” the economy, as reflected in available investment data, has accelerated throughout the pandemic. Investment opportunities in these areas are considerable, and so are the challenges, which are mainly related to financing, regulation and incentives.
- JEL Code
- D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
- 1 August 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Oil prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been volatile ever since. As the current increase in oil prices mainly reflects supply-side factors, it could also affect potential output. This box uses several approaches to assess the channels through which oil price hikes have an impact on potential output and to estimate the possible magnitude of the impact of the current shock. The quantitative estimates proposed should be regarded with caution given the current volatility in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil and the uncertainty surrounding the amplitude of the shock, which will depend on how the conflict develops.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
- 1 August 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box uses the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to assess euro area household saving behaviour since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Most respondents reported that during the pandemic they were not able to increase their savings. Those that were able to do so reported that COVID-19-related restrictions/fear of infection and precautionary motives were the most important reasons for increasing their savings. In March 2021 the bulk of the savings accumulated during the pandemic were not expected to be spent until at least the spring of 2022. Most respondents expected to return to, but not exceed, their pre-COVID-19 levels of consumption as soon as pandemic restrictions were relaxed, suggesting limited scope for widespread pent-up demand during the recovery. Pandemic-related savings were concentrated among higher-income households with a relatively low exposure to energy-intensive expenditure. This limits the extent to which these savings are able to shield the ongoing recovery of consumption from the adverse impact of the recent surge in energy prices.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 29 July 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tõnis Oja on 25 July
- 28 July 2022
- THE ECB BLOGNon-immigrants in the euro area are on average better off than immigrants in terms of wages and wealth. These differences can cause immigrants to react differently to economic shocks and changing financial conditions. As economic inequality matters for monetary policy transmission, the ECB Blog takes a closer look.Related
- 19 October 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 14 September 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 23 July 2022
- THE ECB BLOGRaising interest rates is a landmark moment on our journey towards lower inflation, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 22 July 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 29 June 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the second quarter of the year. Despite clear signs of weakening demand in some sectors, reflecting the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, the recovery in sectors benefiting from the relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions was particularly strong and generally exceeded expectations. Overall, contacts expected activity growth to slow in the coming months, with widespread uncertainty and concern surrounding the outlook after the summer. The frequency and magnitude of selling price increases remained high, as substantial increases in costs (particularly from energy and transport) were passed through the value chain. Most contacts anticipated a similar trend in selling price increases in the third quarter, but some were more hesitant in view of faltering demand, pointing to a potential for some moderation in the overall rate of increase.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 21 July 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 21 July 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 21 July 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 21 July 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 21 July 2022
- PODCAST
- 21 July 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 21 July 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 21 July 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 25 August 2022
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 19 July 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 19 July 2022
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 18 July 2022
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 18 July 2022
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 8 July 2022
- THE ECB BLOGThe ECB is reducing the carbon footprint in its portfolio and pushing banks to better manage climate risks. Within our mandate, we incorporate climate change considerations into our monetary policy and banking supervision, say Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 7 July 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the selling price expectations among euro area firms based on the results from the most recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area. To better understand the price-setting behaviour of firms in a context of high inflationary pressures, the April 2022 Survey included additional questions on the selling price expectations of firms and factors influencing their pricing decisions. By providing the perspective of firms, this box sheds light on the current inflation outlook.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
- 4 July 2022
- SPEECHRemarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit
- 1 July 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament’s Innovation Day “The EU in the world created by the Ukraine war”
- 28 June 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 on “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” in Sintra, Portugal
- 23 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The debt financing structure of euro area firms has broadened since the introduction of the euro. While bank loans still account for a major share of corporate debt, euro area firms have increasingly resorted to bond financing over the past decade and a half. Empirical evidence suggests that this shift in firms’ debt financing structures affects the transmission of shocks to the euro area economy. While corporate bonds and loans typically respond in a similar procyclical manner to exogenous changes in business investment, bond issuance tends to mildly cushion the credit contraction resulting from adverse supply shocks. The evidence also indicates that a higher share of bond financing strengthens the transmission of monetary policy measures that primarily operate via longer-term yields, whereas short-term rate changes tend to exert stronger real effects in economies that are more dependent on loans. From a broader perspective, the higher share of bond financing renders euro area firms more resilient against crises concentrated in the banking sector. However, this benefit may be counteracted by a rising presence of more vulnerable firms in the corporate bond market and by the structural vulnerabilities of non-bank financial intermediaries, which are significant investors in that market.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2022 from 9 February to 19 April 2022.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 23 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hit economic confidence and increased uncertainty in the euro area. This box illustrates how the increased uncertainty is being transmitted to the economy, adopting a two-step approach. In the first step, the uncertainty shock is identified using a structural vector autoregression model with sign and narrative restrictions. In the second step, the identified shock is used to compute losses in domestic demand, employing local projection methods. The box shows that the uncertainty shock witnessed in the period to April will have a material adverse impact on domestic demand, estimated to be larger for business investment than for consumption. Across sectors, the effect is estimated to be larger for manufacturing than for services and larger for durable goods than for non‑durables.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 22 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the extent to which current private sector forecasts point to expectations of stagflation in the euro area reminiscent of the stagflation episode in the 1970s. Stagflation refers to a protracted period of flat or negative growth combined with high or increasing inflation, as witnessed in the main advanced economies in the 1970s. Private forecasters do not currently envisage a period of stagflation for the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
N14 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→Europe: 1913?
- 21 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
- JEL Code
- Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
- 21 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines recent developments in euro area food inflation and the channels through which it is being affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. Euro area HICP food inflation reached a historical high in April 2022. The rise has been driven primarily by increasing global energy and food commodity prices since the second half of 2021. The war and its repercussions are hindering the import of energy and food commodities in the euro area and contributing to further increases in global prices. While the European Union is mostly self-sufficient in terms of agricultural products, producing more than it consumes, this is exacerbating already existing pressures in euro area food markets.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 21 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box provides an overview of the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on euro area energy markets. Energy commodity and electricity prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been highly volatile ever since. Russia supplies a considerable amount of energy to the euro area, particularly gas. The European Union introduced economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy industry, most notably the coal and oil sectors, while steps are also being taken towards becoming independent of Russian gas. After the initial price spikes, energy commodity prices moderated, owing partly to the EU’s sanctions and also helped by other policy initiatives such as historically large releases of strategic oil reserves. Higher energy commodity prices intensified the pressure on euro area consumer prices in February and March 2022, while some of this pressure was alleviated in April and May as a result of government measures.
- JEL Code
- Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?
- 20 June 2022
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner
- 20 June 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 20 June 2022
- SPEECH
- 20 June 2022
- SPEECH
- 20 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the euro area labour force. Back-of-an-envelope median estimates suggest that the influx of Ukrainian refugees could boost the euro area labour force by between 0.2% and 0.8% in the medium term, depending on the duration and the severity of the war. This would result in the labour force gaining between 0.3 and 1.3 million additional workers. However, labour market rigidities and other labour market frictions may slow down the integration process, with the result that Ukrainian refugees are likely to enter the labour force very gradually.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J15 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants, Non-labor Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
- 16 June 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dein Spiegel on 19 May 2022
- 16 June 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Maria Vasileiou
- 15 June 2022
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (14) +
- 14 June 2022
- SPEECHCommencement speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the graduates of the Master Program in Money, Banking, Finance and Insurance of the Panthéon-Sorbonne University
- 9 June 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 9 June 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 7 July 2022
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 30 May 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nuño Rodrigo and Laura Salces on 25 May 2022
- 25 May 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a policy lecture hosted by the SAFE Policy Center at Goethe University and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
- 23 May 2022
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
- 11 May 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management
- 11 May 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the international conference to mark the 30th anniversary of Banka Slovenije
- 7 May 2022
- INTERVIEW
- 5 May 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bruegel
- 5 May 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Marco Zatterin
- 3 May 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe on 29 April 2022
- 1 May 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Adolfo Lorente and Manu Álvarez on 26 April
- 28 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Minimum wages are prevalent in many euro area countries. Since 2008 minimum wages in the euro area have tended, on average, to grow at a similar pace to wages and salaries per employee. However, minimum wage growth can also significantly deviate from growth in wages and salaries in some years. Minimum wages are expected to grow at a substantially stronger pace than wages and salaries in many euro area countries in 2022 and 2023 – leading to a stronger than usual upward impact of minimum wages on euro area wage growth while the absolute direct mechanical impact on wage growth in the euro area is likely to remain contained.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 28 April 2022
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European ParliamentRelated
- 28 April 2022
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 27 April 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, International Association for Official Statistics (IAOS) Conference, Kraków
- 26 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The price of emissions allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has risen from below €10 per metric tonne of carbon to above €90 since the beginning of 2018. This box outlines the main reasons behind this increase and examines whether speculative activity may have played a significant role. It concludes that, at present, tangible evidence for a marked increase in speculative activity related to potential changes in market structure appears scarce. Furthermore, a speculation index suggests that, while speculation appears to have increased slightly since early 2019, it remains relatively moderate and well below readings during earlier phases of the ETS.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 April 2022
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fifth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 21 April 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Alessandra Migliaccio on 20 April 2022
- 14 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 67 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 30 March 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the first months of the year, despite ongoing supply constraints as well as cost and price pressures. The war in Ukraine added further disruption to businesses, mainly in the form of further price increases for energy and raw materials, much of which would be passed through to selling prices, as well as shortages resulting in reduced production in some sectors. Overall, contacts expected growth to slow in the coming months, as higher inflation would reduce disposable income and final consumer demand, while uncertainty and downside risks were substantial.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 14 April 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 14 April 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 14 April 2022
- PODCAST
- 14 April 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 April 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 12 April 2022
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 12 April 2022
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 8 April 2022
- SPEECHOpening speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IESE Business School Banking Initiative Conference on Technology and Finance
- 6 April 2022
- SPEECHLectio Magistralis by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the conferral of an honorary degree in Law by the University of Cassino and Southern Lazio
- 2 April 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a workshop organised by the European House – Ambrosetti on “The Agenda for Europe: Macroeconomic and Structural Policy Challenges”
- 1 April 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach
- 31 March 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics
- 28 March 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 March 2022
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 March 2022
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, The Institute of International & European Affairs webinar
- 24 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the development of the saving ratios of non-financial corporations in the euro area and in the largest euro area countries during the coronavirus pandemic. It shows that euro area corporate saving ratios came under pressure at the start of the pandemic but have reached record highs in recent quarters. Business saving has outpaced investment, resulting in historically high net lending of non-financial corporations. Given the importance of savings as an internal source of finance for investment and the high levels of the saving-to-investment ratio and net lending position of non-financial corporations, the prospects for business investment currently look positive from an internal funding perspective.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 23 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Notwithstanding the recent pick-up in corporate spreads in some markets, global corporate bond prices stand close to historical highs amid relatively low credit risk premia, particularly in lower-rated segments. At the same time, the COVID‑19 pandemic has increased the vulnerability and indebtedness of many firms around the world, with corporate credit ratings remaining below pre‑pandemic levels and some firms exhibiting relatively weak profitability. The model-based valuation analysis presented in this box suggests that the strong overall decline in global corporate bond spreads since the peak of the pandemic has been only partly driven by the market’s assessment of improving credit quality and could, to a large extent, be related to the strength of investors’ risk appetite. Based on analysis of bond-level valuations in the US corporate market, the box also shows that market-wide risk-off shocks have the potential to significantly increase corporate spreads and expected default probabilities, particularly for the weakest firms.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
- 22 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In January 2022, Eurostat began publishing official euro area aggregates as part of its Owner-Occupied Housing Price Index (OOHPI). This box looks at the various sub-components of that index, offering a cross-country perspective and analysing their correlation with other price indicators at euro area level.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 20 March 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien on 14 March
- 17 March 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Monetary Policy and Climate Change” at The ECB and its Watchers XXII Conference
- 17 March 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers XXII” conference
- 10 March 2022
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 10 March 2022
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 10 March 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 10 March 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 10 March 2022
- PODCAST
- 10 March 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 10 March 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 2 March 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Hertie School, Berlin
- 28 February 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar organised by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies and Florence School of Banking and Finance at the European University Institute
- 24 February 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual policy panel on “Unwinding QE” at the first annual Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference
- 23 February 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 21 February
- 17 February 2022
- SPEECHOpening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MNI Market News Webcast
- 16 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The ECB’s monetary policy strategy review confirmed that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remains the appropriate price measure for assessing the achievement of the medium-term price stability objective. However, the Governing Council recognised that the inclusion of costs related to owner-occupied housing in the HICP would better represent the inflation rate that is relevant for households. This article elaborates on the topic of owner-occupied housing and its proposed inclusion in the HICP. It showcases the two options considered by the Governing Council, focusing on their statistical and conceptual properties. For the net acquisition approach recommended by the Governing Council, the article presents analytical indices based on ECB approximations that serve as a blueprint for the quarterly internal measure to be monitored. Finally, the article looks ahead to the incorporation of the costs of owner-occupied housing into the HICP and the associated challenges, noting that the current HICP will remain the main reference index for monetary policy during the transition period.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 15 February 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 14 February and published on 15 February
- 15 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The article takes stock of Next Generation EU (NGEU) from a euro area perspective. NGEU is a temporary crisis instrument that, if implemented successfully, is expected to significantly improve Europe’s economic prospects. In the short term, it should support the recovery of the EU economy. In the medium term, NGEU should help to modernise the EU economies, with positive effects on their growth potential, resilience and convergence. The article provides a synthesis of the fiscal measures and structural reforms embedded in the national recovery and resilience plans of euro area countries. It also looks at the economic impact of the planned investments. Finally, the article examines the novel governance approach that can sustain a successful implementation of NGEU.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 14 February 2022
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
- 14 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box investigates potential long-term effects that current supply shortages could have on euro area potential output growth. Depending on the persistence of supply bottlenecks, firms might consider finding new supply chains. If this happens, sectors that have greatly benefited from international exposure and globalisation in terms of productivity growth might experience a decline in trend total factor productivity. All else being equal, this could lead to a trend decline in potential output growth for the most affected countries. The likelihood of such a scenario is highly difficult to assess. On the one hand, the high sunk costs of establishing global supply chains imply that reshoring would not take place at a larger scale if the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is perceived to be temporary. On the other hand, a substantial shift in the geography of supply chains may occur because supply disruptions are very costly to firms. The challenges presented by this reorganisation process could be exacerbated if the pandemic encourages an increase in protectionism and de-globalisation. This box presents two scenarios, using historical elasticities between global value chain participation and trend total factor productivity growth, to give a flavour of the possible impact the current supply shortages could have on potential output.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
- 14 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- After headline inflation had already reached very high levels in the United States in the first half of 2021 and increased further to 7% in December, euro area inflation also recorded a very rapid increase in the second half of 2021 but remained much lower than in the United States at 5% in December and – according to Eurostat’s flash release – at 5.1% in January. Most of the difference in overall inflation developments has been due to the far stronger increase in inflation less energy and food (and from a higher starting point) in the United States than in the euro area. Large contributions from some special items – including used car prices – continue to play a key role for explaining differences in inflation excluding food and energy. Turning to underlying drivers of inflation developments, the United States is more advanced in the business cycle than the euro area and the US labour market has tightened, which has started to be reflected in some upward pressure on wages. However it should be kept in mind that the pandemic is a unique situation with considerable differences in inflation developments when compared with “normal” times, which require close monitoring and add to the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the United States as well as in the euro area. Upside surprises in inflation data releases have continued to be larger for the United States than for the euro area over recent quarters. Looking ahead, Consensus Economics forecasts expected inflation to remain below 2% in 2023 in the euro area but not in the United States and uncertainty around the outlook for inflation seemed to be much greater for the United States.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
- 10 February 2022
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB[1]
- 10 February 2022
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the London School of Economics German Symposium
- 9 February 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 February 2022
- 7 February 2022
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 7 February 2022
- SPEECH
- 7 February 2022
- ANNEX
- 3 February 2022
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related- 3 February 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 3 February 2022
- PODCAST
- 3 February 2022
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 3 February 2022
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 25 January 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Emilis Linge and Dalius Simenas
- 14 January 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra, Bastian Brinkmann and Meike Schreiber on 10 January 2022
- 14 January 2022
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of the Parliaments of the European Union (COSAC)
- 13 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2021 from 28 July 2021 to 2 November 2021.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 13 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 13 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box explores new indicators of the financing conditions faced by euro area companies, based on firm-level survey data. Drawing on the rich dataset provided by the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), three synthetic indicators summarise how firms have perceived their financing conditions in the euro area since 2009. Overall, the indicators suggest there have been several important phases in firms’ perceptions of financing conditions, which relate closely to ECB monetary policy measures. The empirical analysis shows that, after the onset of the pandemic, firms’ perceptions of financing conditions played an increasingly important role in explaining their expectations of the future availability of bank loans.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
- 13 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- During the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply and demand imbalances have put a strain on global production networks. We develop a two-step vector autoregression (VAR) procedure to gauge the impact of supply chain shocks on activity, trade and prices. In the first step, we use a sign restricted structural VAR with PMI output and PMI delivery times to recover the supply chain shock, which is our proxy for measuring episodes of supply chain strains. In the second step, we plug such shocks as exogenous variables into a companion VAR with endogenous real and nominal variables. Counterfactual scenarios are constructed to assess the effects of the supply bottlenecks, which are having a negative impact on real variables and pushing up prices. A medium-term assessment of the supply chain strains is also provided.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 13 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Understanding the expectations of households, firms and financial markets regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments is important for the conduct of monetary policy. Surveys can play an important role in understanding expectations. The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) brings together information on financial sector expectations of monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in one coherently structured and regularly updated survey. The objective of the SMA is to “gather regular, comprehensive, structured and systematic information on market participants’ expectations”. The ECB launched the SMA as a pilot project in April 2019 and, after concluding the pilot phase, has published aggregate results since June 2021. This article looks at the structure of the survey and the rationale behind it and explains what role it plays in understanding changes in market participants’ expectations of euro area monetary policy and the macroeconomy.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 11 January 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
- 8 January 2022
- SPEECHRemarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Climate and the Financial System” at the American Finance Association 2022 Virtual Annual Meeting
- 7 January 2022
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Robert Shortt on 7 January and published on 7 January 2022
- 22 December 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 16 December and published on 22 December
- 16 December 2021
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related- 16 December 2021
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 16 December 2021
- PODCAST
- 16 December 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related
- 16 December 2021
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 8 December 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the fifth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board
- 8 December 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 5th ESRB Annual Conference
- 30 November 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Édouard Lederer and Thibaut Madelin on 24 November and published on 30 November
- 26 November 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021
- 24 November 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Sciences Po
- 23 November 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 22 and published on 23 November 2021
- 19 November 2021
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 31st Frankfurt European Banking Congress 2021 “From Recovery to Strength”
- 17 November 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual event organised by Goldman Sachs
- 15 November 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the 24th Euro Finance Week
- 15 November 2021
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 15 November 2021
- SPEECH
- 15 November 2021
- SPEECH
- 11 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- In the wake of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, a special survey was conducted among the panel of participants in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The aim of the survey was to gain an insight into how the participants in the regular SPF survey have assessed the new strategy and into whether it has already had, or will have, an impact on their forecasts. Overall, respondents considered the new strategy to be an improvement, identifying the clearer inflation target (2%) and explicit commitment to symmetry as key elements. Regarding the impact on macroeconomic forecasts, around one-third of respondents indicated that they had revised their point longer-term inflation expectations, and a slightly larger portion indicated that they had revised (up) the balance of risks surrounding those expectations in response to the new strategy. The results of the survey suggest there is a strong correlation between what respondents viewed as key aspects in the new strategy and what they viewed as key improvements compared with the previous strategy.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 11 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Shocks to inflation can have longer-lasting effects in the presence of second-round effects. Wage-setting systems are more likely to trigger second-round effects if wage indexation is widespread in labour agreements. To derive a euro area indicator for the prevalence of wage indexation, characteristics of national wage indexation schemes are weighted by country shares in euro area private sector employment. Based on this indicator, around 3% of private sector employees in the euro area have wages and minimum wages automatically indexed to inflation. For most of the employees covered by automatic wage indexation, the inflation measure is backward-looking and includes energy. Indexation regimes where inflation has a formal, but not automatic role in wage negotiations, apply to currently around 18% of employees in the euro area and mostly consider forward-looking inflation measures excluding energy. Additionally, around 18% of euro area employees work in countries where only the minimum wages are automatically indexed to inflation. These indexation mechanisms are usually backward-looking with inflation measures that include energy. For more than half of the employees in the euro area, inflation does not play a formal role in wage setting but can be an important factor in wage negotiations. Where there is no formal role for inflation, inflation developments can be more easily disregarded in times of high uncertainty, with the focus being on job security instead, for example. Since the Great Financial Crisis, indexation regimes with a formal role for inflation in wage setting have become somewhat less prevalent in the euro area. Overall, the likelihood of euro area wage-setting schemes triggering second-round effects based on inflation indexation is relatively limited, particularly with regard to energy inflation. Recent hikes in energy inflation can be expected to lead to some automatic wage increases, mainly in minimum wages in some countries, affecting only a small share of private sector employees. However, a broadly based and automatic pass-through to wage growth through wage indexation mechanisms seems rather unlikely.
- JEL Code
- J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 11 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article reviews three popular equilibrium exchange rate models, the purchasing power parity (PPP), behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and macroeconomic balance (MB) models. The aim is to address two questions: whether such models help in forecasting real and nominal exchange rates and which macroeconomic fundamentals contain such predictive power. The evidence suggests that real exchange rates adjust over time to their estimated real exchange rate equilibria only in the cases of the PPP and BEER models. Exploring this empirical regularity, it is possible to draw three important lessons. The first is that such equilibrium adjustment helps to forecast real exchange rates. The second lesson is that this real equilibrium adjustment process helps in forecasting nominal exchange rates, as most of the adjustment toward equilibrium is achieved by currency movements and not by relative price changes. The third is that most of the forecasting power comes from the exploitation of the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates rather than an understanding of the relationship between exchange rates and economic fundamentals.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 10 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The growth of euro area labour productivity, measured by real GDP per hour worked, increased at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic before declining during the subsequent economic recovery. This contradicts the general notion of productivity being procyclical and reflects the unique nature of this crisis. This box discusses the recent patterns in labour productivity and considers the extent to which some of these developments might fade or consolidate after the crisis.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 10 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Productivity plays a key role in the economic resilience and social welfare of countries. Central bankers are also interested in higher productivity growth because it would contribute to increasing the natural rate of interest and, therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy, its room for manoeuvre and its transmission to the economy. With this monetary policy perspective in mind, this article aims to show key productivity trends and drivers over the past few decades in the euro area. The article is complemented by Box 4 in this issue of the Economic Bulletin, which presents preliminary evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and of policy responses to it, on productivity in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 9 November 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual conference on “Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking”
- 9 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at recent trends in, and the outlook for, euro area housing markets using data from the ECB’s new Consumer Expectations Survey. Households from the highest income quintile, those expecting high income growth and households that are net savers are particularly likely to support housing demand going forward. While some accumulated savings may have already been used for house purchase, such savings are still expected to support housing demand in the near term. Households expect favourable credit conditions and increasing housing prices, which suggests a dynamic housing market but may also pose housing affordability problems for lower-income households.
- JEL Code
- R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
- 9 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article reviews the developments in the euro area housing market during the various phases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and compares them with previous crises. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic agents’ mobility had a strong impact on housing market activity. However, in contrast to the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the upward trend in house prices and housing loans continued unabated, which was also thanks to resilient demand for housing by households. During the second and third waves, the forceful support of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy measures amid more targeted containment measures ensured favourable financing conditions and helped increase the attractiveness of housing for investment purposes, while supply-side bottlenecks may have exerted some upward pressure on house prices. The outlook for the euro area housing market remains dependent on uncertainties related to pandemic developments, policy support and structural changes.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 9 November 2021
- SPEECHPresentation by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the high-level panel on central bank digital currency, 30th Anniversary Conference of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
- 8 November 2021
- SPEECHWelcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets
- 8 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the recent dynamics and outlook for economic activity in more contact-intensive services in the euro area, which were particularly adversely affected by the pandemic. Following the marked deterioration during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, value added in those services rebounded strongly in the second and third quarters of 2021, while remaining well below its pre-pandemic level. The ample slack in these subsectors is also confirmed by the significant role of demand as a factor limiting activity, which in turn appears to be affected by pandemic restrictions. The gradual resolution of the public health crisis and the ensuing reopening of the economy are expected to support a continued recovery in more contact-intensive services. In the medium term, structural factors, such as changes in households’ preferences and working arrangements, will also play a role in shaping the recovery path of consumer services.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 8 November 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellícer on 3 November 2021
- 3 November 2021
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the COP26 Finance Day Presidency Event on “A Financial System for Net Zero”
- 29 October 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 68 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 4 and 13 October 2021. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were increasingly limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and were generating pipeline price pressures which, while transitory in nature, were turning out to be more persistent than some had anticipated. There were also more widespread reports of labour shortages, not least as the recovery of high-contact services had stimulated recruitment activity. Owing to the pipeline prices pressures and the recent surge in energy prices, contacts anticipated greater pass-through to consumer prices and higher wages in 2022 than they had a few months ago.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 28 October 2021
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) + - 28 October 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 26 October 2021
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 26 October 2021
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 14 October 2021
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fourth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 11 October 2021
- SPEECHWelcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice
- 7 October 2021
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland webinar "The importance of data"
- 7 October 2021
- SPEECHWelcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021”
- 1 October 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference on “Implications of Federal Reserve Actions in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic”
- 28 September 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at ECB Forum on Central Banking "Beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy"
- 27 September 2021
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 27 September 2021
- ANNEX
- 24 September 2021
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the 5th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements Research Seminar organised by the European Stability Mechanism
- 24 September 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 23 September
- 23 September 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the 8th Conference on the Banking Union, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main
- 23 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- In its climate change action plan, the ECB committed to accelerating the development of new models and conducting theoretical and empirical analyses to monitor the implications of climate change and related policies for the economy. As a first step in its detailed roadmap of climate-related actions, the ECB envisages the inclusion of technical assumptions on carbon pricing in Eurosystem/ECB staff projections. Against this backdrop, this box summarises the genesis and basic features of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the system setting the carbon price in the EU. The EU ETS, which began operating in 2005, is a “cap and trade” system where a cap is set by the EU on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by the activities covered by the system. It has been implemented in “phases” designed to gradually reduce the cap while increasing the scope of the system. In July 2021 a revision of the EU ETS was proposed in the context of the “Fit for 55” package. Meanwhile, the price of emissions allowances traded on the EU ETS has increased from €8 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent at the beginning of 2018 to around €60 more recently. So far, the main impact of changes in emissions allowance prices has been on HICP energy inflation, and, overall, the risk that emissions allowance prices under the current EU ETS may translate into significantly higher headline inflation in the near term appears limited. However, against the backdrop of the ECB’s recently announced action plan, these and other climate change mitigation polices will be further explored with regard to their implications for macroeconomic modelling and monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 22 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the health of the euro area non-financial corporate sector at an aggregate level during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using the quarterly sectoral accounts. The results suggest that non-financial corporate liquidity was safeguarded at the aggregated sector level. This was mainly due to a build-up of cash buffers, as is typical for crisis periods, and the timely and extensive reactions from the monetary, fiscal and supervisory authorities. Policy interventions provided direct and indirect support to non-financial corporations and enabled firms to substantially increase their recourse to debt financing. However, non-financial corporate profitability, operating efficiency, indebtedness and vulnerabilities came under pressure, increasing the risk of a rise in firm defaults in the future.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 21 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations and liquidity developments during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2021 (28 April 2021 to 27 July 2021).
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 21 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Before the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, HICP inflation was relatively subdued in the euro area, standing at 1.2% in February 2020. In the United States, CPI inflation was substantially stronger, at 2.3% in the same month. After having declined over 2020, headline inflation has increased strongly in the United States and the euro area over recent months. Most of the increase, especially in the United States, has been driven by only a few items in the consumption baskets – including energy prices. Looking at developments in underlying inflation, US CPI inflation less food and energy has increased strongly, significantly surpassing its pre-pandemic levels, while HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) in the euro area has remained below its pre-pandemic levels – reflecting in part a still larger amount of slack in the euro area economy. Recent increases in inflation have pushed up the short-term inflation expectations of professional forecasters for the United States and, to a much lesser extent, also for the euro area, but inflation rates are expected to decrease substantially again over the first half of 2022. A substantial part of the strong increases in inflation over recent months in the United States and the euro area can be attributed to special factors that are likely to be of a temporary nature. For a more permanent increase in inflation, price pressures would usually need to become more broad-based (especially in the euro area) and also reflect increasing labour cost pressures. However, there is so far no firm indication of the latter once the effects of changes in the composition of employment and of job retention schemes are taken into account.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 20 September 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Conference of Latvijas Banka on "Sustainable Economy in Times of Change"
- 20 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) enabled one of the largest liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB). This article provides an assessment of the effectiveness of the operations in supporting bank lending conditions. It discusses the main transmission channels of TLTRO III, including in relation to other policy measures. This article also includes a box on the importance of collateral easing measures, a box on the impact of TLTRO III on money market rates, and a box on the consequences of high participation in TLTRO III for excess liquidity levels. The article then documents, based on hard data on banks’ balance sheets and soft information from bank surveys, the extent to which TLTRO III has eased bank lending conditions, thereby helping to support access to credit for households and firms during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 20 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the evolution of hours worked per worker in the euro area, in the light of their relevance for the labour contribution to the production of goods and services and for the capacity of the labour market to adjust to macroeconomic developments. Annual hours worked per worker in the euro area have been on a downward trend. Between 1995 and 2019, they declined by more than a hundred hours per worker, from 1,681 to 1,476. Most of this decline results from a rising share of part-time work which in turn can mainly be explained by the increasing labour force participation of women. Labour supply factors have a clear impact as most people working part-time do so voluntarily. Hours worked per worker also play an important role in the adjustment of the labour market during cyclical downturns, as some firms choose to reduce hours per worker to protect employment. This feature is an important factor in assessing the strength of the labour market during subsequent recoveries.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- 16 September 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by David Rubenstein, Bloomberg, on 13 September
- 15 September 2021
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IMFS Policy Webinar
- 15 September 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group meeting
- 14 September 2021
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 13 September 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 148th Baden-Baden Entrepreneurs’ Talk
- 9 September 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 1 September 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, on 30 August 2021
- 1 September 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Miquel Roig and Jorge Zuloaga on 26 August and published on 1 September 2021
- 31 August 2021
- THE ECB BLOGContribution by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the International Monetary Fund’s magazine Finance and Development
- 25 August 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt
- 24 August 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA)
- 21 August 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carla Neuhaus on 17 August and published on 20 August 2021
- 19 August 2021
- THE ECB BLOGPhilip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 4 August 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article reviews how policy institutions – international organisations and central banks – use big data and machine learning methods to analyse the business cycle. It provides different examples to show how big data and machine learning methods are particularly suitable for capturing large shocks and non-linearities in real time. The coronavirus crisis is a case in point, where big data have provided invaluable timely signals on the state of the economy, thus helping to track and assess economic activity, domestic demand and labour market developments in real time. Finally, the article discusses the main challenges faced by central banks when using non-standard data and methods and areas of further application to the work of central banks.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 29 July 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien
- 29 July 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Federico Fubini
- 27 July 2021
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 23 July 2021
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 23 July 2021
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 22 July 2021
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) + - 22 July 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 20 July 2021
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 20 July 2021
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 14 July 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the virtual Financial Statements series hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics
- 13 July 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 11 July 2021
- 10 July 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patrick Bernau and Dennis Kremer on 8 July and published on 10 July 2021
- 2 July 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Cécile Berenger
- 28 June 2021
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference of the Governors of Mediterranean Central Banks on “Central banks at the frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: weathering the storm, spurring the recovery”
- 24 June 2021
- SPEECHGuest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the School of Economics and Management, University of Cyprus
- 21 June 2021
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 21 June 2021
- SPEECH
- 20 June 2021
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 June 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon on 17 June 2021
- 14 June 2021
- SPEECHWelcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB DG-Research Symposium “Climate change, financial markets and green growth”
- 14 June 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck and Florian Eder on 11 June 2021 in Frankfurt
- 10 June 2021
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) + - 10 June 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 3 June 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at The Green Swan Conference – Coordinating finance on climate
- 2 June 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris
- 28 May 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi, Frank Siebelt and Francesco Canepa
- 27 May 2021
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “VIII. New Paradigm Workshop”, organised by the Forum New Economy
- 26 May 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jun Ishikawa
- 19 May 2021
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 19 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
- 11 May 2021
- PRESS RELEASE
- 10 May 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
- 5 May 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the OMFIF virtual panel
- 3 May 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni on 27 April 2021
- 29 April 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gabriel Mellqvist on 29 April 2021
- 29 April 2021
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 29 April 2021
- EURO MONEY MARKET
- 28 April 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 28 April 2021
- 26 April 2021
- SPEECHWelcome address by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF conference on “Spillovers in a “post-pandemic, low-for-long” world”
- 23 April 2021
- PRESS RELEASE
- 22 April 2021
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) + - 22 April 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 20 April 2021
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 20 April 2021
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 14 April 2021
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Related
- 12 April 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Sara Eisen on 9 April 2021 and broadcast on the same day
- 11 April 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel and published on 11 April 2021
- 9 April 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 1 April and published on 9 April 2021, in print on 10 April 2021
- 8 April 2021
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 27 March 2021
- SPEECHRemarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance” workshop (fully digital) organised by The European House − Ambrosetti
- 25 March 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at NYU Stern Fireside Chat
- 23 March 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach on 22 March 2021
- 22 March 2021
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
- 18 March 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the High-level conference on “Strengthening the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework: for a more resilient and efficient banking union” organised by the European Commission
- 18 March 2021
- PRESS RELEASE
- 18 March 2021
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 18 March 2021
- SPEECH
- 17 March 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview on Twitter with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 16 March 2021
- 17 March 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa, Lucie Robequain and Sophie Rolland
- 16 March 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold
- 11 March 2021
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB,
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) + - 11 March 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 3 March 2021
- SPEECHIntervention by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “Greening Monetary Policy – Central Banking and Climate Change” online seminar, organised as part of the “Cleveland Fed Conversations on Central Banking”, 3 March 2021
- 2 March 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online event organised by Bocconi University
- 2 March 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), conducted by Sérgio Aníbal
- 1 March 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Jahresimpuls Mittelstand 2021” of Bundesverband Mittelständische Wirtschaft
- 1 March 2021
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Banque de France / Sciences Po Financial Stability Review Conference 2021 “Is macroprudential policy resilient to the pandemic?”
- 26 February 2021
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Third Annual Conference organised by the European Fiscal Board on “High Debt, Low Rates and Tail Events: Rules-Based Fiscal Frameworks under Stress”
- 26 February 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 22 February
- 25 February 2021
- SPEECHPresentation by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the IESE Business School Alumni Learning Programme Webinar “Risk, reform and recovery in the eurozone”
- 25 February 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
- 25 February 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ingūna Ukenābele on 22 February 2021
- 22 February 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening plenary session of the European Parliamentary Week 2021 in virtual format
- 18 February 2021
- SPEECHGuest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
- 13 February 2021
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 8 February 2021
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
- 8 February 2021
- PRESS RELEASE
- 7 February 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl and Hervé Gattegno
- 4 February 2021
- PRESS RELEASE
- 31 January 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra on 26 January and published on 1 February 2021 as a shortened version in Süddeutsche Zeitung
- 31 January 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Klemens Kindermann on 29 January 2021 and published on 31 January 2021
- 28 January 2021
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the LSE conference on “Financial Cycles, Risk, Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences”
- 25 January 2021
- SPEECHPanel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Lámfalussy Lectures E-Conference 2021 organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
- 25 January 2021
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 50th anniversary of the Associazione Italiana per l’Analisi Finanziaria (by videoconference)
- 21 January 2021
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 19 January 2021
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 19 January 2021
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 12 January 2021
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigètvari on 7 January 2021 und published on 12 January 2021
- 18 December 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 17 December 2020
- 16 December 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, as part of the seminar series “Havarie Europa. Zur Pathogenese europäischer Gegenwarten” at the Hamburg Institute for Social Research (Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung)
- 14 December 2020
- SPEECHWelcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the third roundtable on euro risk-free rates
- 14 December 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Rome Investment Forum 2020
- 10 December 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 10 December 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 10 December 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 10 December 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 2 December 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2020
- 1 December 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow, Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 30 November 2020
- 28 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari on 24 November 2020
- 27 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 19 November 2020
- 26 November 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Economics Department and IM-TCD, Trinity College Dublin
- 25 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 23 November 2020
- 24 November 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The Bank of Finland Monetary Policy webinar: New Challenges to Monetary Policy Strategies
- 23 November 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets, 23 November 2020
- 23 November 2020
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 23 November 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 23 November 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 22 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa and Sophie Rolland
- 19 November 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Financial Stability Conference on “Stress, Contagion, and Transmission” organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research
- 19 November 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 19 November 2020
- SPEECH
- 17 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 12 November and aired on 13 November
- 17 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Maria Nobre, broadcast on Tuesday, 17 November at 12:00 a.m. CET
- 16 November 2020
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 23rd EURO FINANCE WEEK
- 11 November 2020
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking
- 4 November 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the second EBI Policy Conference on “Europe and the Covid-19 Crisis – Looking back and looking forward”
- 4 November 2020
- SPEECHTranscript of Q&A session following a fireside chat with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at an online UBS event on the European economic and policy outlook, conducted on 30 October 2020
- 3 November 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
- 2 November 2020
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ESCB Legal Conference
- 29 October 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 29 October 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 27 October 2020
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 27 October 2020
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 20 October 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 19 October 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the MNI Connect Roundtable
- 19 October 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Charrel and Eric Albert
- 18 October 2020
- SPEECHContribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during the session “Rebuilding and Sustaining Growth”
- 17 October 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eirini Chrysolora
- 15 October 2020
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-second meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 12 October 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Interparliamentary Conference on Stability, Economic Coordination and Governance in the European Union
- 8 October 2020
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Conference “The Werner Report, 50 Years on”, organised by the Luxembourg Centre for Contemporary and Digital History in cooperation with EUI Florence
- 7 October 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
- 7 October 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 6 October 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 62nd NABE Annual Meeting “Global Reset? Economics, Business, and Policy in the Pandemic”
- 1 October 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 29 September 2020
- 30 September 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 30 September 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “ECB and Its Watchers XXI” conference
- 28 September 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 28 September 2020
- SPEECH
- 28 September 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Sustainable Finance Summit, Frankfurt am Main, 28 September 2020
- 28 September 2020
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 28 September 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 28 September 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 28 September 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 28 September 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 24 September 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview on Twitter with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 24 September 2020
- 23 September 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon and Carolynn Look
- 22 September 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the meeting of the ECB Money Market Contact Group
- 22 September 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 21 September 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, 21 September 2020
- 20 September 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jesús Rivasés on 14 September 2020
- 18 September 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the panel discussion “Verteilung der Lasten der Pandemie” (“Sharing the burden of the pandemic”), Deutscher Juristentag 2020
- 17 September 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 16 September 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Philippe Lacour
- 15 September 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 24th Economist Roundtable with the Government of Greece
- 13 September 2020
- SPEECHContribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during the session “Economic, financial and monetary impact of COVID-19 pandemic, and post-crisis options for policies and tools”
- 11 September 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Centre for European Reform and the Eurofi Financial Forum on “Is the current ECB monetary policy doing more harm than good and what are the alternatives?”
- 11 September 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 10 September 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 September 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 10 September 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 31 August 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt on 28 August 2020 and published on 31 August 2020
- 28 August 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 August 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steve Liesman on 27 August 2020 and broadcast on 27 August 2020
- 27 August 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy”
- 26 August 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Roundtable on Monetary Policy, Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking at the 35th Congress of the European Economic Association
- 20 August 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 19 August 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel, Members of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 18 August 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 18 August 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 August 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 31 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, conducted by Dominique Lecoq and Marc Aubault on 29 July and published on 31 July
- 27 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni and published on 27 July 2020
- 26 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Casimiro García Abadillo on 21 July 2020 and published on 26 July 2020
- 24 July 2020
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 24 July 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 23 July 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
- 23 July 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 23 July 2020
- INTERVIEWVideo interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted live by David Ignatius on 22 July 2020
- 22 July 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 18th annual symposium on “Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: an Agenda for Europe and the United States” organised by the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School (by videoconference)
- 21 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 16 July and published on 21 July 2020
- 17 July 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 July 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 July 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual roundtable on “Sustainable Crisis Responses in Europe” organised by the INSPIRE research network, 17 July 2020
- 16 July 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 July 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 16 July 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 14 July 2020
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 14 July 2020
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 13 July 2020
- INTERVIEWTranscript of an interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, with ARD “plusminus”, conducted by Markus Gürne on 8 July 2020
- 8 July 2020
- INTERVIEWVideo interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula Khalaf on 7 July 2020 and posted on 8 July 2020
- 7 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Mark Beunderman on 1 July 2020
- 7 July 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Meeting with Members of the European Parliament
- 2 July 2020
- SPEECHPresentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Berlin Economic Roundtable
- 2 July 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Salzburg Global webinar
- 1 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi, Francesco Canepa and Frank Siebelt
- 1 July 2020
- SPEECHKeynote speech by Fabio Panetta at a Capital Markets webinar organised by the European Investment Bank and the European Stability Mechanism
- 1 July 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marco Zatterin on 26 June 2020 and published on 1 July 2020
- 28 June 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in Welt am Sonntag
- 27 June 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Petersberger Sommerdialog, 27 June 2020
- 25 June 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Webinar Series
- 25 June 2020
- SPEECHInformal welcome remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group
- 25 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 5 December 2022
- EUREP FAQ
- 24 June 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Financial Center Breakfast Webinar organised by Frankfurt Main Finance
- 22 June 2020
- SPEECHPresentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Princeton BCF Covid-19 Webinar Series
- 22 June 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 15 June and published on 22 June 2020
- 19 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 16 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 16 June 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 16 June 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert, and published on 16 June 2020
- 14 June 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez on 9 June 2020 and published on 14 June 2020
- 13 June 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, via videoconference at the inaugural session of the Italian National Consultation
- 12 June 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 11 June 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi on 8 June
- 10 June 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin, (by video conference)
- 10 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (13) +
- 10 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (13) +Annexes
- 10 June 2020
- ANNEXEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (13) +
- 10 June 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar hosted by the Florence School of Banking & Finance
- 9 June 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 June 2020
- 8 June 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)Annexes
- 8 June 2020
- SPEECH
- 5 June 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Léa Salamé and Thomas Sotto on 4 June 2020
- 5 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 5 June 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 4 June 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 June 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 4 June 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 27 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Karen Horn
- 27 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 25 May and published on 27 May 2020
- 22 May 2020
- SPEECHSpeech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Online Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland/European Central Bank, 22 May 2020
- 19 May 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Webinar, 19 May 2020
- 18 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Dominique Seux, Federico Fubini, Thomas Hanke and Carlos Segovia, published on 18 May 2020
- 18 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel on 11 May 2020 and published on 18 May 2020
- 14 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigetvari on 6 May and published on 14 May 2020
- 12 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dorinde Meuzelaar and Martin Visser on 8 May 2020 and published on 12 May 2020
- 11 May 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni and published on 11 May 2020
- 7 May 2020
- SPEECHIntroductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBRelated
- 7 May 2020
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 5 May 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 1 May 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 30 April 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISION
- 30 April 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISION
- 30 April 2020
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 30 April 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 30 April 2020
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 28 April 2020
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 28 April 2020
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
- 22 April 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 18 April 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 15 April 2020
- 16 April 2020
- SPEECHStatement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-first meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 16 April 2020
- SPEECHRemarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a 24-Hour Global Webinar co-organised by the SAFE Policy Center on “The COVID-19 Crisis and Its Aftermath: Corporate Governance Implications and Policy Challenges”
- 15 April 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 9 April 2020
- THE ECB BLOGBlog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 8 April 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Matthieu Pelloli and published on 9 April 2020
- 8 April 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATIONColloquium in honour of Benoît Coeuré, held on 17-18 December 2019
- 7 April 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 April 2020
- INTERVIEWInterview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Angelos Athanasopoulos and published on 4 April 2020