Magyar nyelven nem elérhető
Johannes Pöschl
- 27 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3260Details
- Abstract
- This study investigates the effect of the large shock to energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on bank credit to firms. To isolate the causal effect of the shock, it compares bank lending to high-energy-intensive firms to that of similar low-energy-intensive firms. Following the shock, bank credit to high-energy-intensive firms persistently declined, while their interest rates on new loans rose and other loan terms tightened. Across the distribution, safer firms reduced outstanding credit lines and paid unchanged interest rates on new bank loans, while riskier firms borrowed at higher interest rates.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 2 April 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The rise in very long-term yields over the past year has steepened the slopes between 30-year and ten-year yields in several advanced economies, including the euro area as a whole. This box explores the implications of this steepening for financial markets and intermediaries and also considers the broader macroeconomic outcomes. While higher very long-term yields are expected to have only a limited effect on government funding costs, the yield curve steepening is translating into higher rates on mortgages with long fixation periods. However, financial conditions indices that summarise asset prices with macroeconomic relevance remain essentially unaffected by the inclusion of very long-term maturities. In addition, empirical estimates suggest that the steepening of the long-end yield curve is having only a modest effect on euro area inflation and real GDP, with the impact being significantly smaller than that of changes in short-term rates. Overall, the findings indicate that while the steepening is affecting funding costs and financial intermediaries, its implications for broader financial conditions and macroeconomic dynamics remain contained.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period. That said, on the demand side, survey responses indicate that lower-income households did not reduce their mortgage loan applications, unlike higher-income households, and in fact even increased their consumer loan applications, during this tightening phase. As a result of these offsetting effects, lower-income households, unlike higher-income ones, did not report a decline in overall loan take-up at a time when borrowing conditions were less favourable. Households in lower-income brackets also increased their share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans during this period.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G51 : Financial Economics