European Central Bank - eurosystem
Možnosti vyhledávání
Home Média ECB vysvětluje Výzkum a publikace Statistika Měnová politika Euro Platební systémy a trhy Kariéra
Návrhy
Třídit podle
V češtině není k dispozici.

Christoph Priesmeier

20 January 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1989
Details
Abstract
Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic – instead of the currently used static – elasticities in euro area countries. Applying country-specific error correction models we reveal important differences across countries. For a majority of euro area Member States we find evidence for dynamic revenue elasticities. We show that the application of such dynamic elasticities could substantially reduce forecast errors in several countries – with the evidence being stronger based on ex-post than based on real-time data.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt