Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and European Central Bank
Thursday, 24 and Friday, 25 September 2026
Cleveland
The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) will host the conference. The conference will bring together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation. It will be held in person in Cleveland, Ohio, and virtually in a hybrid format.
Virtual registration is open through the conference.
Registration for in-person attendance
In-person attendance is limited and subject to pre-approval – you’ll be contacted after registering. In-person registration closes Thursday,10 September 2026, at 23:59 EDT.
Programme
All times listed are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
* indicates the presenter
- 8:00
-
Registration and continental breakfast
- 8:45
-
Welcome
Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 8:50
-
Opening remarks
Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
Session 1: Inflation and Firm Behavior
Session Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank
- 9:00
-
How Firms Form Beliefs and the Implications for Inflation
- Hugo Monnery*, Harvard University
- Robert Minton, Federal Reserve Board
Discussant: Michael Weber, Purdue University
- 9:55
-
The Future in Today's Prices: Evidence from a Survey of U.S. Firms
- Jenny Tang*, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Philippe Andrade, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Alexander Dietrich, Danmarks Nationalbank
- John Leer, Morning Consult
- Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
- Egon Zakrajšek, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Discussant: Carlos Carvalho, Kapitalo Investments and PUC Rio
- 10:50
-
Break
- 11:20
-
Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial Constraints
- Michael Bauer*, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
- Alexander Czarnota, Sveriges Riksbank
- Mathias Klein, Sveriges Riksbank
- 12:15
-
Lunch
-
Short Presentation Session: Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Session Chair: Robert W. Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 13:00
-
Inflation Inattention on the Production Network: Firm-Level Evidence and Macro Implications
- Rafael Gonçalves*, Princeton University
- Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
People's understanding of macroeconomic shocks
- Jessica Piccolo*, University of Padova
- Ursel Baumann, European Central Bank
-
The Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans
- Bernardo Candia*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- James Mitchell, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model
- Sarah Holton*, European Central Bank
- Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank
- Florian Huber, University of Salzburg
- Catalina Martínez Hernández, European Central Bank
- 14:00
-
Break
-
Session 2: Monetary Policy and Inflation
- 14:30
-
Nominal Anchors and Real Consequences: Inflation Targeting, Debt, and Investment
- Nicolas Caramp*, University of California, Davis
- Sanjay Singh, University of California, Davis and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Discussant: Andrea Prestipino, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- 15:25
-
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation?
- Neil Mehrotra*, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Javier Bianchi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Alisdair McKay, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Discussant: George Nikolakoudis, University of Chicago
- 16:20
-
Break
- 16:35
-
Keynote
Session Chair: Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
George-Marios Angeletos, Stanley J. Gradowski Jr. Professor of Behavioral Macroeconomics, Northwestern University
- 17:20
-
Reception
- 8:00
-
Breakfast
-
Session 3: Tariffs and Relative Price Shocks
Session Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank
- 8:30
-
Relative Price Shocks and Inflation
- Francisco Ruge-Murcia, McGill University
- Alexander Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Discussant: Ernesto Pastén, Banco Central de Chile
- 9:25
-
The Effect of Tariffs on U.S. Producer Prices
- Bin Wei*, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
- Simon Gilchrist, New York University
- Vivian Yue, Emory University
- Egon Zakrajšek, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
- 10:20
-
Break
- 10:50
-
The Contribution of Imports to Domestic Prices
- Omar Barbiero*, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Alvaro Silva, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Hillary Stein, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Discussant: Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank
- 11:45
-
Keynote
-
Global Price Shocks and International Monetary Coordination
- Veronica Guerrieri*, Ronald E. Tarrson Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Willard Graham Faculty Scholar, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
- Guido Lorenzoni, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
- Ivan Werning, MIT
- 12:30
-
Lunch
- 13:15
-
Poster Session
-
Unemployment Plucking and the Phillips Curve
- Alex Grimaud*, Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Technische Universität Wien
- Maximilian Boeck, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg
- Francesco Zanetti, Oxford University
-
Fixing the New Keynesian Model
- Ina Hajdini*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Jean-Paul L'Huillier, Brandeis University (s)
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Columbia University
- Martin Uribe, Columbia University
-
Online Shopping Access and Retail Pricing Behavior
Francisca Sara-Zaror*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
Perceived Monetary Policy Rule: Identification and Macroeconomic Implications
Husang Kim*, University of Texas at Austin
-
Inflation and Competition in an Old Keynesian Model
Yang Liu*, Boston College
- 14:00
-
Policy Panel
Moderator: David Wilcox, Peterson Institute and Bloomberg Economics
- Beth M. Hammack, Chief Executive Officer and President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Boris Vujčić, Vice-President, European Central Bank
- Jonathan E. H. Heath, Deputy Governor, Banco de Mexico
- 15:00
-
Break
-
Session 4: Experiments and LLMs
Session Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 15:20
-
Anchors aweigh? The effect of communicating forecast uncertainty
- Matthew Naylor*, Bank of England and University of Oxford
- Michael McMahon, University of Oxford, CEPR
- Peter Rickards, University of Oxford, Reserve Bank of Australia
- Ryan Rholes, University of Mississippi
Discussant: James Mitchell, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 16:15
-
LLM Survey Framework: Coverage, Reasoning, Dynamics, Identification
- Shihan Xie*, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
- Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
- Jin Xi, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Discussant: Sophia Kazinnik, Stanford University
- 17:10
-
Closing Remarks
Damjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Center for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.
General information
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Pianalto Auditorium
English
All conference-related questions can be directed to inflation.conference@clev.frb.org.
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