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  • China Expert Network (CEN) workshop
  • Call for Papers
  • Submission deadline: 1 May 2019

Policy challenges amid slowing growth and trade tensions

13 June 2019, Frankfurt am Main

The ECB is organising a workshop of the China Expert Network (CEN) entitled “Policy challenges amid slowing growth and trade tensions”.

The Chinese economy has recorded a loss in growth momentum in recent months and concerns have surfaced about a possible hard landing. Past policies to contain financial leverage and escalating trade tensions pushed down GDP growth at end-2018 to its lowest since the financial crisis, although it was still in line with the authorities’ growth target. The slowdown in trade was particularly marked and reflected a lower domestic demand, weakness in manufacturing, the tech cycle and trade tensions. To cushion a sharper slowdown, the Chinese authorities have announced measures aimed at supporting the economy. Their goal is to prevent an abrupt deceleration of the economy, without derailing the deleveraging progress as significant financial risks remain. Amid high leverage, negative shocks could lead to a rapid and sizable deterioration in the quality of corporate debt. That, in turn, could entail a sudden shrinking of policy space available to support the economy in the medium term.

This CEN workshop aims to discuss these issues while continuing to facilitate co-operation and to further foster the work of the network.

We would like to invite the submission of policy notes, papers, and expressions of interest for participation on topics including, but not limited to, the following:

  • Policy challenges amid slowing growth: What are the risks of a steeper slowdown in China? Do GDP statistics provide a reliable guide to China’s economic activity? How much policy space does China retain to manage a sharper slowdown?
  • Trade: What has been driving the recent slowdown in Chinese trade? To what extent have trade tariffs weighed on imports and exports? Will the trade weakness persist? Is China moving towards a growth model that relies more on domestically produced goods? How is China’s slowdown shaping the changes in global value chains? What is the role of the tech cycle in explaining Asia’s trade weakness?
  • Long-term prospects: Can China avoid a middle-income trap? What would be the implications of China’s continuous expansion for the global economy? How are demographics shaping the long-term outlook? What progress has been made with structural reforms?
  • Leverage and financial risks: How is credit leverage affecting the real economy? What financial sector risks are there?

The workshop will be held on Thursday, 13 June 2019 at the ECB premises in Frankfurt, Germany. The deadline for the submission of policy notes/analytical papers is 1 May 2019. Contributions should be submitted to the China Expert Network (email to CEN@ecb.europa.eu).