European Central Bank - eurosystem
Muokkaa hakua
Pääsivu Media Oheistietoa Tutkimus ja julkaisut Tilastot Rahapolitiikka Euro Maksut ja markkinat Ura EKP:sssä
Hakuehdotuksia
Järjestä tulokset
Ei saatavilla suomeksi

Juan Angel García

7 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the selling price expectations among euro area firms based on the results from the most recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area. To better understand the price-setting behaviour of firms in a context of high inflationary pressures, the April 2022 Survey included additional questions on the selling price expectations of firms and factors influencing their pricing decisions. By providing the perspective of firms, this box sheds light on the current inflation outlook.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box presents evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) based on the results of the 22nd round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE).
JEL Code
D22, E58, G32 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
16 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
Using information derived from the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), this article provides an overview of the changes in the financing conditions experienced by euro area companies over the last ten years. The focus is on non-financial small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Following the Global Financial Crisis and during the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis, access to external finance for these firms was severely impaired. This was followed by a steady improvement in financial conditions, particularly due to support from the accommodative monetary policy measures introduced since 2012. Despite a gradual improvement since the mid-2010s, challenges for SMEs’ access to finance remained, for example in terms of funding diversification, even before the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started at the end of 2019. The outbreak of the recent pandemic raised some new, severe and immediate challenges for SMEs in terms of their access to financing. An accompanying box in this issue of the Economic Bulletin summarises the results of the latest SAFE survey, which took place in March and April 2020, in the midst of the coronavirus crisis.
JEL Code
D22, E58, G32 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reports the responses to an ad hoc question in the latest Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) regarding the export activities of euro area small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In general, just over a third of euro area SMEs exported goods or services outside their domestic market. About half of those exported outside Europe, of which 60% to North America and 40% to China. Comparing sectors, export activities seem to be quite strong among SMEs in the industrial sector, followed by trade and services, but more limited in construction. Exporters, particularly those exporting outside Europe, tend to have a strong equity base and use trade credit. They also make more use of subsidised loans and tend to be more innovative.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
4 December 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2338
Details
Abstract
Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 offer important insights on inflation dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but their effects have been different depending on the behaviour of trend inflation in each country. Countries with relatively high inflation (India, Philippines, Indonesia) benefited, and some were impacted very mildly (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia). Among countries with inflation below target, in those with trend inflation low but constant (Australia, New Zealand) low inflation maybe lasting, but temporary, while those in which trend inflation has declined (South Korea, Thailand) risk low inflation to become entrenched and a de-anchoring of expectations. This diverse international evidence could offer important lessons for monetary policy worldwide.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
25 January 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1995
Details
Abstract
The effects of the unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures undertaken by the U.S. Federal Reserve (and other major central banks) remain a crucial topic for research. This paper investigates their effects on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, a key dimension of UMP that has been largely overlooked. Our analysis provides two key insights. First, the anchoring of inflation expectations deteriorated significantly since late 2008. Second, the expansion of the Fed
JEL Code
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Network
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
8 October 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1857
Details
Abstract
This paper investigates the factors behind developments in inflation expectations in euro area, the U.S. and the U.K. over the sample 2005-2015. Our analysis unveils the presence of a quantitatively important spillover from euro area long-term inflation expectations onto international ones, in particular the U.S., since August 2014. This finding has some important implications. From a policy perspective, it contributes to explain the somewhat puzzling declines in financial indicators of inflation expectations since the autumn 2014 (Yellen, 2015). From a research perspective, our findings suggest that the relatively weak performance of term-structure models (and other econometric models) to explain developments in long-term inflation expectations in major economic areas over 2014-15 may be due to the omission of international factors. These two dimensions may well carry a significant weight on the on-going and future debate on monetary policy normalisation in major central banks.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation