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Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices Workshop

Co-organised by the European Central Bank and Norges Bank

Location: Eurotower, CII

9 a.m. Registration
9.15 a.m. Welcome
Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board, ECB
  Session I
Chair: Marcel Fratzscher (ECB)
9.30 a.m. The US dollar exchange rate and the demand for oil download
Selien De Schryder (Ghent University)
Gert Peersman (Ghent University) presentation

Discussant: Marco Lombardi (BIS) presentation

10.30 a.m. Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? download
Domenico Ferraro (Duke University)
Kenneth S. Rogoff (Harvard University)
Barbara Rossi (ICREA-UPF and BGSE)

Discussant: Patrizio Pagano (Banca d’Italia) presentation

11.30 a.m. Coffee break
12 p.m. Commodity price movements in a general equilibrium model of storage
David Arseneau (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Sylvain Leduc (Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco)

Discussant: Martin Seneca (Norges Bank) presentation

1 p.m. Buffet lunch
  Session II
Chair: Ragna Alstadheim (Norges Bank)
2.30 p.m. Commodity price shocks and imperfectly credible macroeconomic policies download
Juan Pablo Medina (IMF)
Claudio Soto (Banco Central de Chile) presentation

Discussant: Ester Faia (Goethe University Frankfurt)

3.30 p.m. Monetary policy, terms of trade and exchange rate responses: a Markov-Switching structural investigation
Ragna Alstadheim (Norges Bank)
Hilde Bjørnland (Norges Bank) presentation
Junior Maih (Norges Bank)

Discussant: Sandra Eickmeier (Deutsche Bundesbank) presentation

4.30 p.m. Coffee break
5 p.m. to 6 p.m. Oil prices, exchange rates and asset prices
Marcel Fratzscher (ECB)
Daniel Schneider (ECB)
Ine Van Robays (ECB) presentation

Discussant: Deepa Datta (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) presentation

7 p.m.

Dinner (by invitation only)
Hosted by Frank Moss, Director General International and European Relations, ECB

Dinner speech:
Monetary policy from the perspective of a commodity-exporting country  speech
Øystein Olsen, Governor, Norges Bank

Venue: Restaurant Emma Metzler, Schaumainkai 17

Location: Eurotower, CII

  Session III
Chair: Frank Moss (ECB)
9 a.m. Speculation in the oil market download
Luciana Juvenal (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Ivan Petrella (Birkbeck College) presentation

Discussant: Boris Hofmann (BIS) presentation

10 a.m. Assessing the financialisation hypothesis
Lavan Mahadeva (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)
Bassam Fattouh (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)

Discussant: Galo Nuño (ECB/Banco de España) presentation

11 a.m. Coffee break
11.30 a.m. Keynote lecture:
Interaction between monetary policy and commodity prices
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)
12.30 p.m. Buffet lunch
  Session IV
Chair: Anne Berit Christiansen (Norges Bank)
1.30 p.m. Monetary policy announcements effects on commodity prices in high-frequency data
Reuven Glick (Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco)
Sylvain Leduc (Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco)

Discussant: Simon Price (Bank of England) presentation

2.30 p.m. to 3.30 p.m. The crude oil futures curve, the U.S. term structure and global macroeconomic shocks
Ron Alquist (Bank of Canada) presentation
Gregory Bauer (Bank of Canada)
Antonio Diez de los Rios (Bank of Canada)

Discussant: Cristiana Manescu (ECB)

Conference venue European Central Bank
Kaiserstraße 29
60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 (0) 69 1344 6000
Dinner venue Restaurant Emma Metzler
Schaumainkai 17          
60594 Frankfurt am Main
Hotel accommodation Steigenberger Frankfurter Hof  *****
Am Kaiserplatz
60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 215 02
Fax: +49 (0) 69 215 900
Rate: €215 incl. breakfast
Code: European Central Bank + Meeting + 32820
Expiry date: 11 November 2012

Adina Apartment Hotel****
Frankfurt Neue Oper
Wilhelm-Leuschner-Straße 6
60329 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 247 474 0
Fax: +49 (0) 69 247 474 599
Please use our registration link for the hotel
Rates: €145 incl. breakfast for Bedroom Apartments
€125 incl. breakfast for Studios
Code: European Central Bank + Meeting 32830
Expiry date: 11 November 2012

Conference language English
Organisers European Central Bank
International Policy Analysis Division
Marcel Fratzscher, Roland Straub, Cristiana Manescu, Galo Nuño, Ine Van Robays
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 1344 6069

Norges Bank
Research Department
Francesco Ravazzolo
Tel.: +47 (0) 46 8153 69

Contact persons Alessandra De Magistris (logistical arrangements)
European Central Bank
Publishing, Events and Protocol Division
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 1344 8671

Simone Suckfüll
European Central Bank
International Policy Analysis Division
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 1344 6069

Programme The organisers reserve the right to change the conference programme without prior notice.