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Martina Di Sano

Economics

Division

Euro Area External Sector

Current Position

Research Analyst

Fields of interest

International Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Economic Growth

Email

martina.di_sano@ecb.europa.eu

9 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
The decrease in euro area import prices since March 2023 has been associated with the normalisation of global supply chains amid the re-opening of the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, Chinese producer price inflation has been negative for some time, mainly driven by declining Chinese commodity prices and other China-specific factors. Lower producer prices have put downward pressure on China’s export prices and, in turn, on euro area import prices. Economic developments in China also affect euro area import prices indirectly, given China’s important role in the global demand for commodities and as a supplier of intermediate and capital goods to the rest of the world. Empirical evidence from a structural VAR analysis points to tangible spillovers to euro area import prices from Chinese demand and supply shocks, both during the surge in import prices in 2021-22 and in the subsequent plunge in 2023. The magnitude of the estimated disinflationary impact of falling Chinese producer/export prices on euro area HICP inflation is more limited, as euro area consumer price developments also depend on many other factors.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
12 July 2023
THE ECB BLOG
Details
JEL Code
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
Euro area motor vehicle output fell by approximately one-third between June 2018 and July 2022. This can be explained by factors associated with the more stringent emissions tests implemented in the EU, the EU regulation on carbon dioxide emissions, the transition towards electric vehicles, supply chain disruptions, the rise in energy costs and, more recently, the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. Euro area car exports also decreased at the same time. The transition to greener motor vehicles and the future evolution of supply bottlenecks are key factors shaping the outlook for euro area car production and exports in the coming years.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
7 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This Box provides an assessment of trends in European trade in goods and the tourism sector in 2022 using Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI). For goods trade, the analysis shows that bottlenecks in the international supply chain tend to precede upward pressures on import prices for intermediate goods. These pressures are now slowly easing as export demand weakens and supply chains adjust. For services, an earlier surge in bookings in the tourism sector has led to higher prices in that sector. Higher input prices in the tourism and recreation sector, waning pent-up demand for travel, falling real incomes and rising uncertainty may start to dampen demand for European tourism and recreation trade in services in the coming months.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
14 June 2022
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOX
The international role of the euro 2022