Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
ACCOUNTABILITY
25 February 2026
Hearing at the European Parliament
President Christine Lagarde will speak on Thursday, 26 February before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs and answer questions from its members. The hearing will be webcast live and starts at 09:30 CET.
Live webcast
DIGITAL EURO
19 February 2026
Safeguarding people’s freedom to pay
In this fast-changing world, we must show Europeans that we respond to challenges head-on – by protecting our currency and guaranteeing people’s freedom to pay as they choose, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone in a speech at the Italian Senate.
Read Piero Cipollone’s speech
THE ECB BLOG
25 February 2026
How tariffs threaten European businesses
Tariff hikes are putting European companies under strain at a time when productivity growth is already sluggish. Short-term business sentiment is not the only thing at stake. Tariffs could also dampen business dynamism, a key channel for innovation and long-term growth.
Read The ECB Blog- 24 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 24 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 19 February 2026
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 18 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 17 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 17 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 23 February 2026
- Acceptance speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, for the 2026 Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award at the 42nd Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington DC, United States
- 20 February 2026
- Acceptance speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, for the Wolfgang Friedmann Memorial Award 2026 at Columbia Law School in New York
- 19 February 2026
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Italian Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry into the Banking, Financial and Insurance System
- 18 February 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities in cooperation with ESMT in Berlin, Germany
- 18 February 2026
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at ABI Executive Committee meeting
- 21 February 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Emma Tucker, Chelsey Dulaney, Greg Ip, Nick Timiraos, Daniel Colarusso and Amol Sharma on 19 February 2026
- 19 February 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Laura Noonan and Nick Comfort on 17 February 2026
- 10 February 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marta Vilar on 6 February 2026
- 8 February 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Thalia Neophytou on 6 February 2026
- 28 January 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Manuel V. Gomez on 22 January 2026
- 25 February 2026
- Tariff hikes are putting European companies under strain at a time when productivity growth is already sluggish. Short-term business sentiment is not the only thing at stake. Tariffs could also dampen business dynamism, a key channel for innovation and long-term growth.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
Related- 11 February 2025
- 19 February 2026
- Climate change has become an important factor for fiscal policy, debt sustainability and sovereign risk. This blog post shows how climate shocks can push up bond yields, especially for highly indebted and developing countries.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 16 February 2026
- Artificial intelligence has the potential to make economic research more effective. But how exactly? This ECB Blog post gives a concrete example. We look at the use of AI to streamline the processes and analytical capabilities of our Corporate Telephone Survey.Details
- JEL Code
- O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
C00 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→General
- 13 February 2026
- Europe’s largest asset managers serve investors across the EU. Yet they remain supervised solely at national level, creating potential blind spots for risks. This calls for a European approach to their supervision, which could also foster cross-border financing.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
- 12 February 2026
- Europe has ideas, talent and strong institutions, but it lacks scale. By introducing a 28th regime, Europe can unlock its full potential, allowing firms to turn innovation into economic growth.Details
- JEL Code
- O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
- 25 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3195Details
- Abstract
- When default losses elevate borrowing costs, expanding credit cannot stabilize the economy because default rates feedback to lending rates through bank balance sheets. Asset management companies (AMCs) break this loop by purchasing nonperforming loans at their long-run recovery values, thereby fixing the effective default rate that banks face. Government purchases of performing loans expand credit but leave this feedback intact. In a model calibrated to the eurozone, the AMC reduces quarterly default rates by 0.8 percentage points, lowers lending rates by 1.6 percentage points, and raises welfare by 0.2%. Government purchases crowd out bank deposits, contracting credit; default rates rise by 1.8 percentage points, lending rates increase by 1.2 percentage points, and welfare falls by 0.3%.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 25 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3194Details
- Abstract
- We document a novel transmission channel of monetary policy through the homeowners insurance market. On average, contractionary monetary policy shocks result in higher homeowners insurance prices. Using granular data on insurers’ balance sheets, we show that this effect is driven by the interaction of financial frictions and the interest rate sensitivity of investment portfolios. Specifically, rate hikes reduce the market value of insurers’ assets, tightening insurers’ balance sheet constraints and increasing their shadow cost of capital. These frictions in insurance supply amplify the effects of monetary policy on real estate and mortgage markets by making housing less affordable. We find that monetary policy shocks have a stronger impact on home prices and mortgage applications when local insurers are more sensitive to interest rates. This channel is particularly pronounced in areas where households face high climate risk exposure. Our findings highlight the role of insurance markets in amplifying macroeconomic shocks and the interconnections between homeowners insurance, residential real estate, and mortgage lending.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G5 : Financial Economics
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 24 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3193Details
- Abstract
- Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank’s direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single index, named Macro-Finance FCI. The VAR coefficients and the FCI weights are estimated jointly in one step, ensuring a model-consistent microfinance feedback. The model-implied long-run mean of the index provides a neutral benchmark to which financial conditions converge when inflation is at target and output is at potential. For the euro area, the proposed FCI incorporates nine asset prices – including risk-free rates, sovereign spreads, risk assets, and the exchange rate – and assigns a dominant role to nominal interest rates. It outperforms existing indices in out-of-sample forecasts of inflation and output. A structural identification of supply, demand, and financial shocks indicates that financial conditions require up to one year to transmit to the real economy and almost up to two years to inflation.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 24 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3192Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase with a particular focus on the euro area and the United States. Temporary and permanent price shocks are both inflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on the underlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. The analysis also establishes that these models share large commonalities in their quantitative and qualitative results, while also pointing out cross-country differences.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 23 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3191Details
- Abstract
- Sequence-space models are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomics, especially in the heterogeneous-agent literature. However, the econometric toolkit for users of these models remains less developed than that available for traditional state-space methods. This note introduces an algorithm for efficiently filtering unobserved shocks in linear sequence-space models. The proposed filter solves a least-squares optimization problem in closed form and returns the expectation of unobserved shocks conditional on observed data. It handles heteroskedasticity, missing observations, measurement error, and non- Gaussian shock distributions. To illustrate its properties, I apply it to data simulated from a medium-scale heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model and show that it accurately recovers the underlying structural shocks.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 23 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3190Details
- Abstract
- Using information from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey, we examine how the implementation of borrower-based macroprudential measures (BBMs) between 2009-Q1 and 2023-Q3 affected mortgage lending standards in a sample of 15 euro area countries. We find that banks generally tightened credit standards around the implementation of BBMs, with the strongest effect occurring contemporaneously. Such tightening of credit standards is observed for different types of BBMs, including limits on loan-to-value or debt-service-to-income ratios and maturities. We also find mild evidence that legally binding measures imply a stronger tightening of credit standards than measures in the form of non-binding recommendations. Finally, this tightening is more pronounced in cases where mortgage loan growth or real estate price growth is high, consistent with BBMs effectively smoothing the credit cycle.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics
- 23 February 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 140Details
- Abstract
- Using regional data for 11 euro area countries from 1999 to 2023, instead of country-level data, we find that inflation still responds to economic slack, but this relationship is more modest and largely shaped by inflation expectations. This implies that traditional demand-side central bank policies may have limited direct effects on inflation, highlighting that anchoring expectations is essential for effective monetary policy transmission.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 20 February 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a new approach to estimating the time-varying elasticity of euro area short-term money market rates to changes in excess liquidity. The approach is robust to the endogeneity between the price and volume of central bank liquidity as well as to shifts in the non-linear liquidity demand curve over time. It serves as a useful tool to monitor liquidity conditions in real time and to estimate the level of excess liquidity below which money market rates become sensitive to further reductions in excess liquidity. It currently indicates that this sensitivity remains negligible for both secured and unsecured money market rates in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box examines how economic uncertainty influences the consumption and saving behaviour of euro area households, drawing on recent insights from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). Both the CES and the European Commission’s consumer survey point to similar trends in uncertainty over time. These show that while below its 2022-23 peak, uncertainty is still higher than the trough seen in mid-2021. Additional CES questions on the predictability of households’ financial situations reveal that respondents experiencing higher uncertainty spend less on durables and non-durables, while they save more, in line with a textbook precautionary saving motive. These findings underline the relevance of economic uncertainty in understanding current aggregate consumption and saving decisions in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- 18 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Global trade flows experienced significant shifts in 2025 following new US tariffs. After an initial frontloading surge, US imports from China declined sharply, while Chinese exports demonstrated resilience overall, with broad-based growth across destinations outside the United States. Preliminary empirical analysis shows that US tariffs had a strong negative effect on China’s exports to the United States but have resulted in limited trade diversion to other markets so far. Trade diversion effects are found to be concentrated in a narrow set of products and destinations, notably countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa. Overall, China’s export growth appears to be driven by structural factors, such as rising competitiveness, weak domestic demand and deeper regional supply chain integration, rather than large-scale tariff-induced trade diversion.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 17 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Euro area housing investment has declined steadily in recent years but appears to have bottomed out at the end of 2024. This box analyses the fundamental drivers of recent housing investment dynamics using a structural empirical model. The results indicate that weak broader macroeconomic conditions and the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening have weighed on housing investment, although this has been somewhat offset by improving housing-specific demand. Looking ahead, housing investment is expected to gradually recover as demand for housing strengthens, economic growth improves and the effects of monetary policy easing feed through.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 17 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3189Details
- Abstract
- It is well known that standard frequentist inference breaks down in IV regressions with weak instruments. Bayesian inference with diffuse priors suffers from the same problem. We show that the issue arises because flat priors on the first-stage coefficients overstate instrument strength. In contrast, inference improves drastically when an uninformative prior is specified directly on the concentration parameter—the key nuisance parameter capturing instrument relevance. The resulting Bayesian credible intervals are asymptotically equivalent to the frequentist confidence intervals based on conditioning approaches, and remain robust to weak instruments.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C26 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C36 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 17 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Electrification is central to the decarbonisation objectives of the EU. Yet, electricity prices remain elevated across the euro area compared with levels observed before the 2021-22 energy crisis, while households pay around twice as much as energy-intensive industries. This box examines the drivers of these differences in the five largest euro area countries. While short-term relief measures such as price caps and tax reductions can ease price pressures, these do not address the underlying drivers of high electricity prices. Moreover, these measures should be devised so as not to weaken decarbonisation incentives for energy-intensive industries.
- JEL Code
- Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
- 16 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3188Details
- Abstract
- Under which conditions do usability constraints for regulatory capital buffers emerge? To answer this question, we build a non-linear structural banking sector model with a minimum capital requirement that banks are not allowed to breach, and a capital buffer requirement (CBR) that banks can breach but if they do so potential stigma applies. We prove that even very low stigma costs induce large buffer usability constraints, i.e. when faced with losses banks will deleverage significantly to avoid that their capital ratio falls below the CBR. Our findings imply that non-releasble regulatory capital buffers are unlikely to fully achieve their macro stabilisation goal to support aggregate loan supply when the banking system faces losses.
- JEL Code
- D21 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Theory
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 16 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the state of play for green innovation in the EU and identifies the structural barriers that are constraining the adoption and scaling- up of low-carbon technologies. These include unpriced environmental externalities, knowledge spillovers, limited risk capital markets, regulatory complexity, skills shortages and insufficient enabling infrastructure. The analysis highlights how these structural barriers interact to slow the green transition and raise transition costs. Drawing on recent ECB analysis and insights from corporate earnings calls, this article shows that addressing these obstacles requires a comprehensive policy mix, including carbon pricing, enhanced temporary subsidies, and structural policies that improve the business environment, facilitate the reallocation of resources, and stimulate competition and entrepreneurship.
- JEL Code
- Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- 12 February 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 12 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3187Details
- Abstract
- Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) manage counterparty risk by requiring clearing members to post margins. This paper explores the role of margins as “canaries in the coal mine:” By inducing defaults of fragile counterparties before contract maturity, margin calls enable CCPs to transfer these contracts to other counterparties, thereby preserving risk sharing. Our model reveals a pecking order of CCP risk management tools. When fragility is low, loss sharing among original counterparties suffices. When fragility is high, such that defaults at contract maturity would trigger cascading failures among clearing members, the CCP optimally complements loss sharing with margins. It is optimal to use margins as canaries when the balance sheets of fragile counterparties are severely impaired. Our findings highlight the complementary nature of CCP risk management tools: margins, loss sharing, and counterparty replacement.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
- 12 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3186Details
- Abstract
- We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together with other high-frequency macroeconomic and financial variables, as well as real GDP and the GDP deflator. Our model produces timely monthly density nowcasts of the annual deficit ratio, while governments and official institutions generally only publish their point predictions bi-annually. Based on a database of real-time vintages of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal variables for Italy, we show that the nowcasts of the annual deficit to GDP ratio of our model are similarly or more accurate than those of the European Commission, depending on the month in which the nowcast is produced. Our scenario analysis compares the dynamics of the deficit ratio associated with a monetary and a typical recession, finding a more muted response in the latter case.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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| Deposit facility | 2,00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,40 % |
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