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Christine Gartner

1 April 2001
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 55
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Abstract
This paper studies the determinants of loans to the private sector in the euro area. Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies one cointegrating relationship linking real loans, GDP and interest rates. This relationship implies that in the long-run real loans are positively related to real GDP and negatively to real short-term and long-term interest rates. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the cointegrating vector describes a long-run demand equation. The short-run dynamics of the demand for euro area real loans is subsequently modelled by means of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). A number of specification tests performed on the VECM produce satisfactory results, with tests of stability of the model parameters showing no signs of structural breaks during the sample period (1980 Q1 - 1999 Q2). All of this suggests that developments in real loans to the private sector in the euro area can be reasonably explained by the model
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
29 August 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1950
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Abstract
We investigate the role of corruption in the business environment in explaining the efficiency of within-sector production factor allocation across firms in nine Central and Eastern European countries in the period 2003-2012. Using a conditional convergence model, we find evidence of a positive relationship between corruption growth and both labour and capital misallocation dynamics, once country framework conditions are controlled for: the link between corruption and input misallocation dynamics is larger the smaller the country, the lower the degree of political stability and of civil liberties, and the weaker the quality of its regulations. As input misallocation is one of the determinants of productivity growth, we further show that the relationship between changes in corruption and TFP growth is indeed negative. Our results hold when we tackle a possible omitted variable bias by instrumenting corruption with two instrumental variables (the percentage of women in Parliament and freedom of the press).
JEL Code
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D73 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Bureaucracy, Administrative Processes in Public Organizations, Corruption
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
Network
Competitiveness Research Network
6 August 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
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Abstract
This box reviews the recent decision on the inclusion of the Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna in ERM II from a historical, institutional, policy and economic perspective. It explains the key features of ERM II, describes the process and rationale underlying the decision, including the prior and post‑ERM II entry policy commitments made by the Bulgarian and Croatian authorities, and explains the key elements that were taken into consideration when defining the central rate of the lev and the kuna against the euro in the exchange rate mechanism.
JEL Code
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
5 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna were included in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) on 10 July 2020. This marks a milestone towards further enlargement of the euro area. The process unfolded along a roadmap agreed by the various ERM II parties, which reflects the lessons learned from the past and the creation of banking union, as well as a careful assessment of country-specific strengths and vulnerabilities. First, this article briefly reviews the history, main features and procedures of ERM II. It then argues on the basis of quantitative evidence that the process of euro adoption may induce a regime shift when a country joins ERM II. This shift may alter the economic incentives of both domestic and foreign investors and the authorities of the Member State concerned, with important policy implications. For this reason, countries need sound policies, governance and institutions in order to allocate international financial inflows and domestic credit efficiently. They must also address risks with adequate macroeconomic, macroprudential, supervisory and structural measures. Drawing on this analysis, the third part of the article explains the rationale for ERM II participation and the roadmap towards it that has been successfully implemented for Bulgaria and Croatia. This includes the completion of several policy measures before joining ERM II, as well as post-entry policy commitments made by the Bulgarian and Croatian authorities. The article concludes by highlighting the way ahead and challenges faced by the two countries on the path towards euro adoption.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance