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Filippo Durero
- 11 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Energy market developments continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East. Global refinery runs have fallen significantly compared to previous years, driven by reduced refinery activity in the Middle East, Russia and Asia. The constrained supply of crude oil and refined products has led to a persistent global increase in refining margins and costs, particularly for diesel. In view of the important role of refining costs and margins in transport and heating fuel inflation, the ECB’s short-term inflation projection model for energy shows that expected heightened trajectories for refined energy product prices may lead to higher energy inflation even if oil prices move in the opposite direction.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 371