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Níl an t-ábhar seo ar fáil i nGaeilge.

Elena Angelini

1 August 2003
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 252
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Abstract
Existing methods for data interpolation or backdating are either univariate or based on a very limited number of series, due to data and computing constraints that were binding until the recent past. Nowadays large datasets are readily available, and models with hundreds of parameters are fastly estimated. We model these large datasets with a factor model, and develop an interpolation method that exploits the estimated factors as an efficient summary of all the available information. The method is compared with existing standard approaches from a theoretical point of view, by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and also when applied to actual macroeconomic series. The results indicate that our method is more robust to model misspecification, although traditional multivariate methods also work well while univariate approaches are systematically outperformed. When interpolated series are subsequently used in econometric analyses, biases can emerge, depending on the type of interpolation but again be reduced with multivariate approaches, including factor-based ones.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
26 June 2006
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 646
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Abstract
The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed and the effects of six exogenous shocks to the economy discussed. The long run simulations performed deliver responses of the baseline economy in line with both macroeconomic theory and practice, from a quantitative and a qualitative point of view.
JEL Code
C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
20 July 2006
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 660
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Abstract
This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian model follows closely that of the Area-Wide Model (AWM) and indeed the other MCM country blocks (in terms of specification and accounting framework). The MCM is a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model that treats the economy in a relatively closed manner. It has a long-run classical equilibrium with a vertical Phillips curve but with some short-run frictions in price/wage setting and factor demands. Consequently, activity is demand-determined in the short-run but supply-determined in the longer run with employment having converged to a level consistent with an exogenously given level of equilibrium unemployment. The precise properties of the model are illustrated using a number of standard variant simulations.
JEL Code
C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
23 May 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 752
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Abstract
In this paper we compare alternative approaches for the construction of time series of macroeconomic variables for Unified Germany prior to 1991, and then use them for the construction of corresponding time series for the euro area. The resulting series for Germany and the euro area are compared with existing ones on the basis of both descriptive statistics and results of econometric analyses conducted with the alternative time series. We find that more sophisticated time series methods for backdating can yield sizeable gains.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
28 October 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 953
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Abstract
We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from a dynamic factor model due to Doz et al. (2005), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and forecasting together with cross-equation accounting identities. A pseudo real-time forecasting exercise indicates that the model outperforms various benchmarks, such as quarterly time series models and bridge equations in forecasting growth in quarterly GDP and its components.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
28 October 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 949
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Abstract
Global financial integration unlocks a huge potential for international risk sharing. We examine the degree to which international equity holdings act as a risk sharing device in industrial and emerging economies. We split equity returns into investment income (dividend distribution) and capital gains to investigate which of the two channels delivers the largest potential for risk sharing. Our evidence suggests that net capital gains are a more potent channel of risk sharing. They behave in a countercyclical way, that is they tend to be positive (negative) when the domestic economy is growing more slowly (rapidly) than the rest of the world. Countries with more countercyclical net capital gains experience improved consumption risk sharing. The empirical analysis furthermore suggests that these risk sharing properties of net capital gains have increased through time, in particular in the 1990s and early-2000s, on the back of a declining equity home bias and financial market deepening.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
13 February 2013
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1512
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Abstract
In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
10 March 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1647
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Abstract
A balanced current account in the euro area has disguised sizeable net lending imbalances at the country level, exposing the common currency area to severe pressures during the financial crisis. The key contribution of this paper is to evaluate the adjustment process through the lenses of the New Multi Country Model at the country and sectoral level. We find that shocks to the external, fiscal and monetary environment help explain, to a large degree, the sizeable current account adjustment and rise in unemployment in Spain. The model also suggests that a recovery in wage competitiveness helps to reduce external deficits at the cost of higher net borrowing by households. The stimulus effects on aggregate demand, via the interest rate response of the common monetary authority and the competitiveness channel, are present but not overly large, as the rebound in economic activity depends mainly on global demand, supportive monetary policy, business and consumer confidence.
JEL Code
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
Network
Competitiveness Research Network
28 January 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2227
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Abstract
The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of policy relevant variables such as, for example, consumer prices and GDP. The forecasting accuracy and the ability to mimic the path of the Eurosystem projections suggest that the model is a valid benchmark to assess the consistency of the projections with the conditional assumptions. As such, the BVAR can be used to identify possible sources of judgement, based on the gaps between the Eurosystem projections and the historical regularities captured by the model.
JEL Code
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
16 September 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2315
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Abstract
This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documentedin the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the countrymodels, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms,enlarge the suite of area wide tools, and provide a tool for a top down approach betweeneuro area and country modelling. The model converges to a well-de ned steady state and itsproperties are in line with macroeconomic theory and standard empirical benchmarks. Thedesign is aligned to its role as workhorse model in the context of the forecasting and policysimulation exercises at the ECB.
JEL Code
C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
29 June 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2431
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Abstract
This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy. Containment policies considerably reduce the share of infected and deceased people, but generate a sharp decline in economic activity. Barring the materialization of amplification risks, the induced recession may remain broadly V-shaped under targeted confinement policies. By comparison, a "laissez-faire" approach to the pandemic emergency can even inflict in some cases higher long-term economic costs. Nevertheless, the depth of the recession and the speed of the recovery (if at all) crucially depend on the magnitude and persistence of the supply-side retrenchment, as well as on the risk of macro-financial feedback loops.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
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Abstract
We augment the ECB-BASE model using the predictive dynamics of an SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy, investigating the macro impact of pandemic-related risk factors associated with a medical solution to the COVID‑19 crisis.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health