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Davide Fantino

Economics

Division: Business Cycle Analysis
Current Position: Principal Economist
Fields of interest: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Microeconomics,Economic Growth
Email: Davide.Fantino@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Education: 2005-2010
PhD in Economics, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, U.K.; 2004-2005
MRes in Economics, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, U.K.; 2002-2003
MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, U.K.; 1997-2001
Laurea in Economia e Commercio, University of Turin, Italy
Professional experience: 2022-2026
Head of Econometric Analysis and Macroeconomic Forecasts Unit, Modelling and Forecasting Division, Directorate General Economics Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy; 2016-2022
Advisor, Macroeconomic Projection Team, Modelling and Forecasting Division, Directorate General Economics Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy; 2019-2020
Advisor, Money and Credit Team, Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Economics Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy; 2012-2016
Senior Economist, Macroeconomic Projection Team, Modelling and Forecasting Division, Directorate General Economics Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy; 2014-2015
Visiting Scholar, Financial Markets Group, The London School of Economics and Political Science; 2011-2012
Economist, Macroeconomic Projection Team, Modelling and Forecasting Division, Directorate General Economics Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy; 2007-2011
Economist, Regional Economic Analysis and Research Unit, Branch of Turin, Bank of Italy; 2005-2006
Research Assistant, Centre for Economic Performance, The London School of Economics and Political Science; 2004
Econometric analyst, Centrale dei Bilanci, Cerved Group

ECB publications

26 May 2026

THE ECB BLOG

How the war in the Middle East is reshaping euro area firms’ expectations

English

JEL Code: E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

3 December 2025

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 381

The ESCB forecasting models: what are they and what are they good for?

English

Abstract: This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite models tailored to particular questions or country-specific aspects. Each type of model has its own strengths and weaknesses and can help answer different questions. The models should therefore be seen as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. Semi-structural models are commonly used to produce baseline projection exercises, since they offer the flexibility to combine expert judgement with empirical data and have enough complexity and structure to provide a good representation of the economy. DSGE models, valued for their internal consistency and strong theoretical foundations, are another core forecasting tool used by some central banks, particularly to analyse counterfactuals. Time series models tend to be better suited to forecasting the short term, while scenario analysis and special events may require satellite models, extensions of existing models or even the development of new models tailored to the question at hand. The report also addresses the challenges to macroeconomic projections posed by data quality, including revisions and missing data, and describes the methods implemented to mitigate their effects. The report identifies “quick wins” to improve the projection process by enhancing the transparency and comparability of results through standardised reporting frameworks and better measurement of the judgement integrated in forecasts. The findings highlight the fundamental role of macroeconomic models in underpinning the ESCB’s projection exercises and ensuring that the Governing Council’s assessments and deliberations rest on coherent, granular and credible analysis of both demand-side and supply-side dynamics.
JEL Code: C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy

27 February 2024

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 341

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy support on productivity

English

Abstract: This paper studies the short-term and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for productivity in Europe. Aggregate and sectoral evidence is complemented by firm-level data-based findings obtained from a large micro-distributed exercise. Productivity trends during the COVID-19 pandemic differed from past trends. Labour productivity per hour worked temporarily increased, while productivity per employee declined across sectors given the widespread use of job retention schemes. The extensive margin of productivity growth was muted to some degree by the policy support granted to firms. Firm entries declined while firm exits increased much less than during previous crises. The pandemic had a significant impact on the intensive margin of productivity growth and led to a temporary drop in within-firm productivity per employee and increased reallocation. Job reallocation was productivity-enhancing but subdued compared to the Great Recession. As confirmed by a granular data analysis of the distribution of employment subsidies and loan guarantees and moratoria, job reallocation and also debt distribution and“zombie firm” prevalence were not significantly affected by the COVID-19 policy support. The pandemic and related lockdowns accelerated changes in consumer preferences and working habits with potential long-term effects. Generous government support muted the surge in unemployment and reduced permanent scarring effects.
JEL Code: D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence

External publications

2025

Bank of Italy Occasional Paper n. 942

Energy prices in the Bank of Italy macroeconometric model