- 29 September 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2591Details
- We investigate which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years. This is a challenging task due to dimensionality problems: a large set of potential determinants, limited data, and the prospect that some variables could be non-stationary. We assemble a set of 35 real, financial, monetary, and institutional variables for nine of the original euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2016Q4. Using the Weighted-Average Least Squares method, we gather clues about which variables to select. We quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main finding is the positive and robust role of EU institutional integration on long-term growth for all countries in the sample. An improvement in competitiveness matters for growth in the overall euro area in the long run, as well as a decline in sovereign and systemic stress. Debt over GDP negatively influences growth for the periphery, but only in the short run. Property and equity prices have a significant impact only in the short run, whereas the loans to non-financial corporations positively affect the core euro area. An increase in global GDP also supports growth in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
- 16 September 2019
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 233Details
- This paper reviews and assesses financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. The paper mainly focuses on the period since 2016 (unless the analysis requires a longer time span) and on the banking sectors that dominate financial systems in this group of countries. For the Western Balkans, the paper analyses recent trends in financial intermediation, as well as the two main challenges that have been identified in the past. Asset quality continues to improve, but the share of non-performing loans is still high in some countries, while regulatory, legal and tax impediments are still to be resolved in most cases. High unofficial euroisation is a source of indirect credit risk for countries with their own national legal tender, which calls for continued efforts to promote the use of domestic currencies in the financial system. At the same time, banking systems seem less prone to financial stress from maturity mismatches than certain EU peers. These risks are met with a solid shock-absorbing capacity in the Western Balkans, as exemplified by robust capital and liquidity buffers. Turkey experienced a period of heightened financial stress during 2018 and, while its banking system appears to have sufficient buffers to absorb shocks overall, significant forex borrowing of corporates and high rollover needs of banks in foreign exchange on the wholesale market constitute considerable financial stability risks.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 March 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXCharacterising the current expansion across non-euro area advanced economies: where do we go from here?Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019Details
- This box looks at the current phase of the business cycle in major non-euro area advanced economies with a view to assessing the factors behind the transition to weaker growth.It shows that in several key advanced economies the output gap is currently in positive territory, with activity still expanding faster than potential. Although growth in non-euro area advanced economies has been slowing, signals of a severe slowdown or recession appear contained. This notwithstanding, downside risks abound and have increased lately.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
- 9 January 2018
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 205Details
- This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices. Cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates are considerably shorter than those in credit and house prices and have little in common with the latter. Credit and house price cycles are weakly synchronous across countries and their volatilities vary widely – these differences may be related to the structural properties of housing and mortgage markets. Finally, DSGE models can replicate the volatility of cycles in house and equity prices, but not the persistence of house price cycles.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 24 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2026Details
- We investigate the interactions across current account misalignments, Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments and financial (or output) gaps within EU countries. We apply panel techniques, including a Bayesian panel VAR, to 27 EU members over the period 1994-2012. We find that, for the euro area, the reaction of current account misalignments to a shock in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments is the largest and the financial gap can influence the current account misalignments more than the output gap. In non-euro area countries and euro periphery an increase in current account misalignments leads to a temporary increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments, lowering competitiveness and thus amplifying current account fluctuations. For the core, a raise in the rate or an expansion of the financial gap may help in rebalancing the current account. In the CEE members, an increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments may bring larger current account deficits in the medium-long run.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- Competitiveness Research Network
- 25 January 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2003Details
- In this paper we analyse the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in the euro area as a whole and for four euro area members - Germany, France, Italy and Spain. For that purpose we use Bayesian VARs with identi?cation based on a combination of zero and sign restrictions. Our results emphasize that pass-through in the euro area is not constant over time - it may depend on a composition of economic shocks governing the exchange rate. Regarding the relative importance of individual shocks, it seems that pass-through is the strongest when the exchange rate movement is triggered by (relative) monetary policy shocks and the exchange rate shocks. Our shock-dependent measure of ERPT points to a large but volatile pass-through to import prices and overall very small pass-through to consumer in?ation in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- Task force on low inflation (LIFT)