Fabian Wagner
Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability
- Division
Market-Based Finance
- Current Position
-
Financial Stability Analyst
- Fields of interest
-
Financial Economics,Other Special Topics
- Education
- 2022-2024
M.Sc. Business Administration/Finance, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Munich, Germany
- 2019-2022
B.Sc. Business Administration/Finance, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Munich, Germany
- Professional experience
- 2026-
European Central Bank | Financial Stability Analyst DG-MF - Market based Finance (Jan. 2026 - present)
- 2025-2025
European Central Bank | Traineeship DG-MF - Market based Finance (12 months)
- 2022-2023
Ludwig Maximilians Universität - Institute of Electronic Commerce and Digital Markets | Student Research Assistant (part-time - 6 months)
- 2022-2022
Deloitte GmbH | Internship - M&A Deal Advisory (Operational Transaction Service) (2 months)
- 2021-2021
KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft | Internship - Finance Treasury Management (2 months)
- 2020-2020
WTS Group AG - Tax Consulting | Internship - Transfer Pricing & Financial Advisory (2 months)
- 24 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3276Details
- Abstract
- Retail investors increasingly discuss markets in real time on social media, yet these discussions remain difficult to measure systematically. This paper introduces the Reddit Retail Investor Sentiment Indicator (R-RISI), a high-frequency measure of retail investor sentiment based on Reddit posts from major investing and crypto-related subreddits between 2015 and April 2026. Using ChatGPT 5.1, we classify posts by sentiment and topic and show that large language models provide more accurate labels for informal social media language than widely used finance-specific models such as FinBERT, which tends to over-assign neutral sentiment. R-RISI is constructed by aggregating daily positive and negative posts, weighting them by user engagement and standardising the resulting series using a rolling one-year z-score methodology. The indicator can be flexibly built for broad asset classes, portfolios, individual securities or thematic groups, allowing sentiment to be tracked at a much higher granularity than traditional retail investor indicators. We show how sentiment and dominant discussion topics evolve over time within each of the extracted subreddits. R-RISI closely reflects major market developments and aligns with established sentiment indicators while providing higher frequency and more timely signals. Empirically, changes in R-RISI contain statistically significant short-term information for market prices. This relationship is particularly relevant during periods of market stress: changes in R-RISI matter more for next-day S&P 500 returns when markets are in decline. The indicator therefore offers a timely and granular tool for analysing retail investor behaviour and monitoring sentiment-driven market dynamics in an environment of growing retail investor participation. A regularly updated version of the indicator is available through an accompanying R-RISI online dashboard.
- JEL Code
- F1 : International Economics→Trade
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G4 : Financial Economics
G5 : Financial Economics
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the stabilising role of household investors for investment funds during market stress, with a focus on the April 2025 market turmoil. Households’ long-term investment strategies make them less sensitive to market volatility, which can enhance fund resilience. An analysis of the April 2025 market turmoil and other past market downturns reveals that funds held by households experienced smaller outflows than those dominated by institutional or foreign investors. Following the April 2025 market sell-off, households also reinvested more quickly, further stabilising fund liquidity.
- JEL Code
- D14, G11, G23, G40, G50 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance