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Ieva Rubene

21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 266
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Abstract
The digitalisation workstream report analyses the degree of digital adoption across the euro area and EU countries and the implications of digitalisation for measurement, productivity, labour markets and inflation, as well as more recent developments during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and their implications. Analysis of these key issues and variables is aimed at improving our understanding of the implications of digitalisation for monetary policy and its transmission. The degree of digital adoption differs across the euro area/EU, implying heterogeneous impacts, with most EU economies currently lagging behind the United States and Japan. Rising digitalisation has rendered price measurement more challenging, owing to, among other things, faster changes in products and product quality, but also new ways of price setting, e.g. dynamic or customised pricing, and services that were previously payable but are now “free”. Despite the spread of digital technologies, aggregate productivity growth has decreased in most advanced economies since the 1970s. However, it is likely that without the spread of digital technologies the productivity slowdown would have been even more pronounced, and the recent acceleration in digitalisation is likely to boost future productivity gains from digitalisation. Digitalisation has spurred greater automation, with temporary labour market disruptions, albeit unevenly across sectors. The long-run employment effects of digitalisation can be benign, but its effects on wages and labour share depend on the structure of the economy and its labour market institutions. The pandemic has accelerated the use of teleworking: roughly every third job in the euro area/EU is teleworkable, although there are differences across countries. ...
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
5 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
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Abstract
The recent marked increases in the cost of commodities, raw materials and intermediate products have so far led to only limited upward pressures on consumer goods inflation. Looking ahead, upward pressures on non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation from recent global developments in these input costs are expected to strengthen, as the pass-through generally takes more than one year. How visible and strong the impact on NEIG inflation might be will depend on how persistent the global input cost shocks ultimately are.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
6 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
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Abstract
This box reviews the factors behind the 11-percentage point swing in energy inflation between December 2020 and March 2021, with a particular focus on oil prices, base effects and the impact of indirect taxation. Base effects linked to the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020 pushed up energy inflation by around 5 percentage points between December 2020 and March 2021, and this contribution can be expected to increase substantially further in April. The impact of the marked increase in oil prices since November 2020 has come on top of this. However, the strengthening of energy inflation in early 2021 has reflected not only oil price developments but also changes in taxes and other surcharges – including environmentally motivated measures such as the introduction of carbon emission certificates. Overall, energy inflation plays a prominent role in the temporary rise in overall HICP inflation projected for 2021 and its reduction in early 2022.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
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Abstract
Digitalisation – the diffusion of digital technologies, leading to a digital economy is “virtually everywhere”. It transforms economies, making it an important issue from a central banking perspective. Some of the key effects of digitalisation relevant to monetary policy relate to output and productivity, labour markets, wages and prices. This article summarises and updates the evidence on the euro area and the EU digital economy. This article also takes a closer look at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the digital economy, both in the short term and beyond.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
28 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
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Abstract
Food prices are an important driver of euro area HICP due to their sizeable share in the consumption basket and their volatility. This box reviews the food price increases in April 2020 and finds that they were unusual in terms of their size and the circumstances surrounding them. The developments in April 2020 most likely reflected strong increases in demand combined with supply-side effects related to the lockdown and containment measures caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Owing to strong food sector supply linkages within the euro area, the disruption of supply chains within the euro area observed during the COVID-19 pandemic may have had important implications for the food supply and consumer prices. To conclude, the box highlights that, while the May and preliminary June data show signs of normalisation in price changes, the possibility remains of upside price pressures in the short term and downside price pressures in the medium term.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
11 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
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Abstract
Aggregate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices is lower in the EU than it was in the 1990s and is found to be non-linear. Low estimated aggregate ERPT to consumer prices does not mean that the exchange rate movements do not matter for inflation, as aggregate estimates mask substantial heterogeneities across countries, industries and time periods due to structural, cyclical and policy factors. Key structural characteristics that explain ERPT across industries or sectors are: import content of consumption; share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency; integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains; and market power. In line with the literature, different types of shocks that move the exchange rate in the euro area elicit different price responses, so the combination of shocks that lie behind changes in the exchange rate at any point in time matters for the ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects the ERPT and credible and active monetary policy lowers the observed ex post ERPT. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions have a larger ERPT to consumer prices. Instead of rules of thumb, in order to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation, it is better to use structural models with sufficient feedback loops that take into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reaction., share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency, integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains, and market power. In line with the literature, different types of shocks that move the exchange rate in the euro area elicit different price responses, so the combination of shocks that lie behind changes in the exchange rate at any point in time matters for the ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects the ERPT and credible and active monetary policy lowers the observed ex post ERPT. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions have a larger ERPT to consumer prices. Instead of rules of thumb, in order to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation, it is better to use structural models with sufficient feedback loops that take into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reaction.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
13 January 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2362
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Abstract
How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates? Do relatively large exchange rate changes entail more exchange rate pass-through? In this paper, we examine possible non-linearities in the transmission of exchange rate movements to import and consumer prices in all 19 euro area countries as well as the euro area as a whole from 1997 to 2019Q1. We extend a standard single-equation linear framework with additional interaction terms to account for possible non-linearities and apply local projections to obtain state-dependent impulse response functions. We find that (i) euro area consumer and import prices respond significantly to exchange rate movements after one year, responding more when the exchange rate change is relatively large; and (ii) euro appreciations and depreciations affect the level of euro area exchange rate pass-through in a symmetric fashion; (iii) for euro area countries results differ for import and consumer prices and across countries.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
8 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
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Abstract
Euro area headline inflation is currently dominated by a strong contribution from energy prices. In the third quarter of 2018, energy prices contributed 0.9 percentage point to the headline HICP inflation rate of around 2.0%, thus accounting for almost half. This large contribution mainly reflects past developments in crude oil prices, a factor that constitutes a common influence across euro area countries. However, the contribution of energy to HICP inflation depends both on the share of energy in consumption expenditure and on the degree of pass-through of oil price developments to consumer energy prices. This box reviews the extent to which these features can help explain differences across euro area countries in the recent contribution of energy to overall HICP inflation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting