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Johannes Gareis

28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
This box analyses the recent dispersion of economic activity across countries and sectors and assesses the role that reopening effects have played following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions last year. The box shows that the dispersion of growth across euro area countries was still relatively high at the beginning of 2023, while the dispersion of growth across sectors was in line with pre-pandemic levels. The greater dispersion of growth across countries appears to be related to the continued higher dispersion of growth in contact-intensive services, which declined from the peak seen during the pandemic but remained at a historically high level, as contact-intensive services output continued to grow at a stronger pace in countries where contact-intensive services account for a larger share of the economy. According to an econometric model for the euro area as a whole, reopening effects remained a significant driver of the growth differential between manufacturing and contact-intensive services in the first quarter of 2023 but weakened overall compared with 2022. Over the course of 2023 the effects of the reopening of the economy should continue to fade and other forces, such as tighter financing conditions, should become more prominent.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
8 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box analyses the factors determining household perceptions of the attractiveness of housing as an investment. It finds that these perceptions differ depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of households. Using a linear probability regression model, the box also shows that higher perceptions of housing as a good investment are associated with higher expectations for economic growth, personal income growth and house price growth, as well as lower expectations for inflation and mortgage rates. Combining the model estimates with the average expectations of households surveyed in the CES at each point in time, the box derives an expectations-based indicator of households’ perceptions of housing as a good investment. This indicator has declined significantly since June 2021, mainly driven by expectations of higher mortgage interest rates, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions in general.
JEL Code
R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
28 July 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 26 June and 5 July, aggregate activity continued to stagnate in the second quarter of 2023, with differences across sectors still notable. Activity declined in the construction and intermediate goods sectors and in related transport and logistics services. However, consumer spending was proving more resilient than many expected. The growth rate of selling prices continued to decelerate, especially in the industrial sector, as non-labour input costs stabilised. Expectations for wage growth remained strong but showed some signs of moderation when looking forwards to 2024.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
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Abstract
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, households in the euro area and the United States have accumulated a remarkable stock of savings, which exceeds the pre-pandemic trend and provides a boost to private consumption. This box documents how, in the euro area, the stock of excess savings is mainly held in illiquid assets, which are not readily available for consumption. It also shows that, despite some differences in the euro area and the United States, excess savings are concentrated among wealthy individuals, who generally have a lower marginal propensity to consume. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, the box shows that the consumption impulse from the immediate use of such excess savings is dampened by the anticipation of a future expansion in demand, as households smooth their consumption patterns over time. Overall, the results suggest that the consumption impulse from excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has declined in both economies since the second half of 2021 and has been lower in the euro area compared with the United States.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
17 May 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023
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Abstract
This box analyses the dynamics of housing investment in the euro area and the United States and discusses the impact of the recent monetary policy tightening on future housing investment in the euro area. Building on the literature, the box argues that deeper mortgage markets, as reflected in higher levels of household mortgage indebtedness, securitisation and leverage, strengthen the transmission of monetary policy shocks to housing investment. In the euro area, where the mortgage markets are less deep, housing investment is found to react relatively less to monetary policy shocks than in the United States. As a result, housing investment in the euro area has been recently more sheltered from monetary policy tightening than housing investment in the United States. Despite this relative resilience of housing investment in the euro area, the box argues that most of the impact of tighter monetary policy in the euro area is still to materialise, thus clouding the outlook for housing investment.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
27 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
This box assesses the uneven economic effects of the recent surge in energy prices across households and firms in the euro area. The box first uses disaggregated data to disentangle the effects of the deterioration in the energy terms of trade on final expenditures and aggregate income, allocating the implied purchasing power losses across the household income distribution. The box then uses structural economic models to identify the energy price shock underlying the recent terms-of-trade deterioration and to gauge its direct, indirect and second-round effects on the overall economy. As regards the results, the different exposures of households to higher energy costs and lower income indicate a relatively larger impact of the energy terms-of-trade deterioration on lower-income households. The direct and indirect effects of the energy price shock mainly impacted private consumption on the expenditure side and non-energy sectors on the income side. The second-round effects spread the impact more evenly across private consumption and investment, with the government partially shielding private sector disposable income.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
11 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
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Abstract
This box examines the impact of the recent increase in energy prices on real consumer spending in the euro area. The empirical framework relies on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and identifies adverse energy supply shocks that lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade, as captured by the ratio between the GDP deflator and the private consumption deflator, and a decline in real consumer spending. It finds that energy supply shocks have significantly weighed on total private consumption in recent quarters, with durable goods consumption being particularly affected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
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Abstract
Carry-over effects describe how much the average growth rate in a given period is affected by developments in the preceding period. The most common application is to quantify how much annual average GDP growth is affected by quarterly developments in the previous year. This box applies this concept to quarterly changes in GDP by interpolating quarterly GDP into monthly observations using monthly indicators. In selecting the appropriate indicator variables, a production perspective is adopted by using industrial production, construction production and an indicator for services production. This sectoral approach is particularly useful in the current environment, given the differences in how sectors are being affected by the sharp and sudden fluctuations in economic conditions.
JEL Code
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
19 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
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Abstract
Against a background of rising mortgage rates, this box investigates the impact of changes in mortgage rates on euro area house prices and housing investment through linear and non-linear local projections. The model evidence suggests that housing market dynamics are very sensitive to mortgage rates, especially in a low interest rate environment. At the current juncture, this points to a significant risk of a marked slowdown of the euro area housing market. Yet, pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences, which are not captured by the models, could counteract higher mortgage rates and could potentially increase uncertainty surrounding the housing outlook.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
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Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 29 June 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the second quarter of the year. Despite clear signs of weakening demand in some sectors, reflecting the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, the recovery in sectors benefiting from the relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions was particularly strong and generally exceeded expectations. Overall, contacts expected activity growth to slow in the coming months, with widespread uncertainty and concern surrounding the outlook after the summer. The frequency and magnitude of selling price increases remained high, as substantial increases in costs (particularly from energy and transport) were passed through the value chain. Most contacts anticipated a similar trend in selling price increases in the third quarter, but some were more hesitant in view of faltering demand, pointing to a potential for some moderation in the overall rate of increase.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
28 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
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Abstract
This box reviews the dynamics of household savings as derived from deposit flows across the wealth distribution from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 to the surge in inflation that started in the second quarter of 2021. An empirical model disentangles the underlying drivers of household deposit flows across the wealth distribution. Pandemic-related restrictions initially led to an increase in deposit flows, while increases in inflation arising mostly from cost-push shocks subsequently weighed on deposit flows, raising savings inequality in both cases. It is likely that developments in deposit dynamics and savings inequality will continue to be shaped by pandemic-related restrictions and cost-push inflation, as well as uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
R20 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→General
Q11 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis, Prices
17 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
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Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 74 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 10 and 19 January 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were still limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and generating pipeline price pressures, on top of which businesses faced surging energy costs. Most contacts expected wage growth to pick up somewhat this year. Given the cost pressures and continued strong customer demand, most contacts reported increasing prices and a more dynamic pricing environment, especially in the industrial sector.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
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Abstract
This article reviews the developments in the euro area housing market during the various phases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and compares them with previous crises. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic agents’ mobility had a strong impact on housing market activity. However, in contrast to the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the upward trend in house prices and housing loans continued unabated, which was also thanks to resilient demand for housing by households. During the second and third waves, the forceful support of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy measures amid more targeted containment measures ensured favourable financing conditions and helped increase the attractiveness of housing for investment purposes, while supply-side bottlenecks may have exerted some upward pressure on house prices. The outlook for the euro area housing market remains dependent on uncertainties related to pandemic developments, policy support and structural changes.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets