Laura Nowzohour
Research
- Division
Financial Research
- Current Position
-
Graduate Programme Participant
- Fields of interest
-
Public Economics,International Economics,Economic Growth
- Education
- 2017-2022
PhD in International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland
- 2017-2019
Beginning Doctoral Program in Economics, Study Center Gerzensee, Gerzensee, Switzerland
- 2014-2015
Master in International Trade, Finance and Development, Barcelona School of Economics, Barcelona, Spain
- 2011-2014
Bachelor in Economics, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
- Professional experience
- 2023-
Graduate Program Participant - Financial Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank
- 2022-2023
Graduate Program Participant - Front Office, Directorate General Financial Stability and Macroprudential Regulation, European Central Bank
- 2018-2022
Research Assistant - Centre for International Environmental Studies, Geneva Graduate Institute
- 2021
PhD Intern - Macro Policy Division, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, International Monetary Fund
- 2016-2017
Trainee / Consultant - International Policy Analysis Division, Directorate General International and European Relations, European Central Bank
- Awards
- 2023
Leonid Hurwicz Price for Best PhD Thesis, Department of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute
- 31 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3278Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines whether environmental policy uncertainty undermines clean-technology investment in the United States by weakening policy-induced investment incentives. Using quarterly project-level data on U.S. greenfield investments from 2007Q1 to 2019Q1, combined with novel news-based indices that separately measure environmental policy salience and environmental policy uncertainty, we find that policy uncertainty substantially offsets the positive investment effects of environmental policy. At the aggregate level, a one-standard-deviation increase in environmental policy uncertainty eliminates roughly 75% of the policy-induced increase in the number of cleantech projects and around 50% of the increase in capital expenditure. The deterrence effect is substantially stronger for foreign than for domestic investors, consistent with greater informational frictions facing cross-border capital. These effects persist for at least two years following an uncertainty shock and are corroborated by country- and firm-level analyses, though results for capital expenditure are less robust at disaggregated levels. The findings imply that policy credibility is a first-order determinant of clean investment: an environmental policy framework that is ambitious but perceived as unstable may fail to mobilize the capital it is designed to attract.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
- 12 September 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2100Details
- Abstract
- Economists, observers and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we give a concise overview of the recent literature on sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty) and economic activity. Second, we review existing empirical measures of sentiment, in particular consumer confidence, stock market volatility (SMV) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), on monthly data for 27 countries, 1985-2016. Third, we identify some new stylized facts based on international evidence. While different measures are surprisingly lowly correlated on average in each country, they are typically highly positively correlated across countries, suggesting the existence of a global factor. Consumer confidence has the closest co-movement with economic and financial variables, and most of the correlations are contemporaneous or forward-looking, consistent with the view that economic sentiment is indeed a driver of activity.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G41 : Financial Economics
- 2024
- Journal of Public Economics
- 2023
- IMF Working Paper
- 2023
- NBER Working Paper
- 2021
- CIES Research Paper