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Níl an t-ábhar seo ar fáil i nGaeilge.

Laura Gáti

Research

Division

Monetary Policy Research

Current Position

Senior Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Email

laura_veronika.gati@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2015-2021

PhD, Boston College

19 December 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2759
Details
Abstract
Is there a systematic mapping between the Federal Reserve’s expectations of macro variables and the words it uses to talk about the economy? We propose a simple framework that allows us to estimate communication rules in the United States based on text analysis with regularized regressions. We find strong evidence for systematic communication rules that vary over time, with changes in the rule often being associated with changes in the economic environment or with the introduction of a new Fed chair. In the case of the fed funds rate, we also estimate the market’s perception of the Fed’s communication rule and use it to investigate how much of the disagreement between the market and the Fed come from disagreement about the communication rule.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C49 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Other
25 July 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2685
Details
Abstract
This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that optimal policy moves the interest rate aggressively when expectations unanchor, allowing the central bank to accommodate inflation fluctuations when expectations are well-anchored. Furthermore, I estimate the model-implied relationship that determines the extent of unanchoring. The data suggest that the expectations process is nonlinear and asymmetric: expectations respond more sensitively to large or downside surprises than to smaller or upside ones.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
2022
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
  • Gáti, Laura