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2023 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2023 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Dec. 2023 Dec. 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 5.9 2.7 2.1 3.6 2.2 2.1
Standard deviation 1.1 1.2 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.3
Number of replies 56 53 43 47 44 44
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Dec. 2023 Dec. 2024 2027
<-1.0% 0.1 1.9 0.3 0.7 2.00.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.20.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.80.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.1 2.0 3.8 1.1 3.21.9
0.5 to 0.9% 0.1 3.5 6.7 1.0 6.74.8
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 4.8 10.6 2.3 10.312.1
1.5 to 1.9% 0.1 9.9 22.0 4.4 15.721.8
2.0 to 2.4% 0.3 18.5 22.7 7.0 18.726.3
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 18.7 13.6 12.1 15.316.6
3.0 to 3.4% 2.6 13.3 7.9 16.3 10.07.7
3.5 to 3.9% 5.9 8.5 4.5 15.5 6.33.8
4.0 to 4.4% 8.2 6.0 2.4 12.5 3.51.8
4.5 to 4.9% 14.5 4.5 1.5 11.6 2.21.0
>5.0% 66.8 6.5 2.5 13.6 2.90.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Dec. 2023 Dec. 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 4.4 2.8 2.3 3.3 2.5 2.0
Standard deviation 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4
Number of replies 41 41 34 38 37 33
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Dec. 2023 Dec. 2024 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.30.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.91.9
0.5 to 0.9% 0.1 1.7 4.1 1.4 2.65.2
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 4.9 10.1 2.6 7.413.4
1.5 to 1.9% 0.3 11.4 22.0 5.4 16.725.1
2.0 to 2.4% 1.9 19.5 26.9 13.3 25.425.9
2.5 to 2.9% 4.7 22.8 16.3 16.4 20.114.7
3.0 to 3.4% 9.9 18.4 9.1 18.0 12.46.5
3.5 to 3.9% 17.5 10.2 3.5 15.8 5.82.9
4.0 to 4.4% 22.4 4.5 1.8 11.4 2.81.7
4.5 to 4.9% 22.1 1.5 1.3 6.7 1.31.0
>5.0% 21.0 4.3 3.0 8.3 4.10.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 2023 Q3 2024 Q3 2027
Mean point estimate 0.2 1.4 1.7 -0.1 1.4 1.4
Standard deviation 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 55 53 43 46 43 41
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 2023 Q3 2024 Q3 2027
<-1.0% 3.9 1.3 0.6 11.1 2.60.8
-1.0 to -0.6% 8.5 1.3 0.7 15.6 2.00.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 22.0 3.3 1.7 26.1 4.02.9
0.0 to 0.4% 30.3 7.3 4.7 21.8 8.85.7
0.5 to 0.9% 20.3 14.8 9.6 11.5 17.312.5
1.0 to 1.4% 7.5 21.8 20.1 6.0 21.825.1
1.5 to 1.9% 2.8 24.5 29.3 2.9 18.527.6
2.0 to 2.4% 1.2 15.0 17.4 1.6 11.412.4
2.5 to 2.9% 1.0 6.4 8.9 0.9 6.96.3
3.0 to 3.4% 1.1 2.2 3.9 0.6 3.03.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.9 1.2 1.7 0.4 1.51.4
>4.0% 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.11.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Nov. 2023 Nov. 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 7.0 6.9 6.7 7.0 6.8 6.4
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6
Number of replies 51 49 38 35 32 37
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Nov. 2023 Nov. 2024 2027
<4.0% 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.21.4
4.0 to 4.4% 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.2 0.81.8
4.5 to 4.9% 0.3 1.1 2.2 0.5 1.92.4
5.0 to 5.4% 1.1 2.6 2.9 1.6 3.45.5
5.5 to 5.9% 3.5 6.2 7.8 4.8 6.915.2
6.0 to 6.4% 16.4 17.5 21.1 15.4 17.822.6
6.5 to 6.9% 33.6 30.2 27.9 28.7 26.824.1
7.0 to 7.4% 27.8 23.8 19.1 26.4 21.613.1
7.5 to 7.9% 11.6 9.7 9.9 12.1 10.46.8
8.0 to 8.4% 3.2 4.7 3.8 5.5 5.53.7
8.5 to 8.9% 1.2 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.51.6
9.0 to 9.4% 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.01.0
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.60.4
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.2
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
>11.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0