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- 27 February 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 874Details
- We test whether the Nelson and Siegel (1987) yield curve model is arbitrage-free in a statistical sense. Theoretically, the Nelson-Siegel model does not ensure the absence of arbitrage opportunities, as shown by Bjork and Christensen (1999). Still, central banks and public wealth managers rely heavily on it. Using a non-parametric resampling technique and zero-coupon yield curve data from the US market, we find that the no-arbitrage parameters are not statistically different from those obtained from the NS model, at a 95 percent confidence level. We therefore conclude that the Nelson and Siegel yield curve model is compatible with arbitrage-freeness. To corroborate this result, we show that the Nelson-Siegel model performs as well as its no-arbitrage counterpart in an out-of-sample fore-casting experiment.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates