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Lorenzo Burlon

Monetary Policy

Division

Monetary Analysis

Current Position

Lead Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics

Email

Lorenzo.Burlon@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2008-2011

PhD, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

2007-2008

MA (Erasmus Mundus), Université de Paris I "Panthéon - Sorbonne" and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Paris and Barcelona, France and Spain

2006-2007

Diplôme Universitaire, Université de Paris I "Panthéon - Sorbonne", Paris, France

Professional experience
2020-

Senior Economist - Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank

2019

Economist - Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank

2018-2019

Economist (ESCB/IO) - Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank

2013-2018

Economist - Modelling and Forecasting Division, Directorate General Economics, Statistics and Research, Banca d'Italia (on leave)

2016

Secondee (EWE) - Monetary Policy Strategy Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2012-2013

Research Fellow, Directorate General Economics, Statistics and Research, Banca d'Italia, Rome, Italy

2012

Temporary lecturer - Ljubljana Summer School, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

2011-2012

Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Barcelona, Spain

Awards
2010

Louis-André Gérard-Varet Prize (best paper by a young economist) at the Annual Meeting of ASSET

2010

Urrutia Elejalde Foundation Award for Excellence in Doctoral Studies

2010

Best Paper Award at the III Doctoral Meeting of Montpellier

Teaching experience
2012

Lecturer (Undergraduate: Macroeconomics I), University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

2011-2012

Lecturer (Graduate: Macroeconomics I; Undergraduate: Macroeconomics), University of Barcelona, Spain

2008-2011

Teaching Assistant (Undergraduate: Econometrics, Advanced Macroeconomics, Introduction to Economics, Macroeconomics I, Macroeconomics II, Optimization, Macroeconomic Theory), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain

20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
The third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) enabled one of the largest liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB). This article provides an assessment of the effectiveness of the operations in supporting bank lending conditions. It discusses the main transmission channels of TLTRO III, including in relation to other policy measures. This article also includes a box on the importance of collateral easing measures, a box on the impact of TLTRO III on money market rates, and a box on the consequences of high participation in TLTRO III for excess liquidity levels. The article then documents, based on hard data on banks’ balance sheets and soft information from bank surveys, the extent to which TLTRO III has eased bank lending conditions, thereby helping to support access to credit for households and firms during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
9 October 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2480
Details
Abstract
We quantify the impact that central bank refinancing operations and funding facilities had at reducing the banking sector’s intrinsic fragility in the euro area in 2014-2019. We do so by constructing, estimating and calibrating a micro-structural model of imperfect competition in the banking sector that allows for runs in the form of multiple equilibria, in the spirit of Diamond & Dybvig (1983), banks’ default and contagion, and central bank funding. Our framework incorporates demand and supply for insured and uninsured deposits, and for loans to firms and households, as well as borrowers’ default. The estimation and the calibration are based on confidential granular data for the euro area banking sector, including information on the amount of deposits covered by the deposit guarantee scheme and the borrowing from the European Central Bank (ECB). We document that the quantitative relevance of non-fundamental risk is potentially large in the euro area banking sector, as witnessed by the presence of alternative equilibria with run-type features, but also that central bank interventions exerted a crucial role in containing fundamental as well as non-fundamental risk. Our counterfactuals show that 1 percentage point reduction (increase) in the ECB lending rate of its refinancing operations reduces (increases) the median of banks’ default risk across equilibria by around 50%, with substantial heterogeneity of this pass-through across time, banks and countries.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
L13 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
Network
Research Task Force (RTF)
11 September 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2465
Details
Abstract
This study analyses the policy measures taken in the euro area in response to the outbreak and the escalating diffusion of new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We focus on monetary, microprudential and macroprudential policies designed specifically to support bank lending conditions. For identification, we use proprietary data on participation in central bank liquidity operations, high-frequency reactions to monetary policy announcements, and confidential supervisory information on bank capital requirements. The results show that in the absence of the funding cost relief and capital relief associated with the pandemic response measures, banks’ ability to supply credit would have been severely affected. The results also indicate that the coordinated intervention by monetary and prudential authorities amplified the effects of the individual measures in supporting liquidity conditions and helping to sustain the flow of credit to the private sector. Finally, we investigate the potential real effects of the joint pandemic response measures by estimating the adjustment in labour input variables for firms that in the past have been more exposed to similar policies. We find that, in absence of monetary and prudential policies, the pandemic would lead to a significantly larger decline in firms’ employment.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
13 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article explains how negative rates are transmitted via banks and financial markets, both via standard transmission channels and via channels specific to negative interest rates. The latter can enhance the stimulus, but may also hinder it, in particular in the case of protracted periods of negative rates. Euro area bank profitability has been persistently low since the financial crisis, and this has the potential to impair bank lending. At the same time, profits have increased since 2014 and the impact of negative interest rates is assessed as broadly neutral so far, as the negative contribution to net interest income has been offset by the positive impact on borrower creditworthiness. Finally, the article reports empirical evidence – drawn from a range of studies – on how negative rates affect the broader economy, starting with bank portfolio allocation decisions, lending volumes and lending rates. The article then elaborates on the impact of the negative rate policy on key macroeconomic aggregates, notably economic activity and inflation.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article examines bank lending conditions for euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs), making use of the wealth of soft information available in the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) since its inception in 2003. One relevant question in this context is whether the tightening of the bank loan supply during the financial and sovereign debt crises has been offset by the easing of bank lending conditions for NFC loans since 2014. The article illustrates that the easing over this period has come mainly through a substantial loosening of the actual terms and conditions applied by banks to new loans to firms of average credit quality, while the credit standards that banks have established for their loan approval decisions have eased by less. The article also draws on the responses of individual banks to examine the differences in bank lending conditions for NFC loans across bank business models. This analysis reveals that the change in credit conditions of banks with business models more reliant on stable funding sources, such as deposits, is more muted. In short, it looks at additional aspects that enhance the regular assessment of bank lending conditions faced by firms based on the euro area BLS.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
7 June 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2289
Details
Abstract
Exploiting confidential data from the euro area, we show that sound banks pass on negative rates to their corporate depositors without experiencing a contraction in funding and that the degree of pass-through becomes stronger as policy rates move deeper into negative territory. The negative interest rate policy provides stimulus to the economy through firms’ asset rebalancing. Firms with high cash-holdings linked to banks charging negative rates increase their investment and decrease their cash-holdings to avoid the costs associated with negative rates. Overall, our results challenge the common view that conventional monetary policy becomes ineffective at the zero lower bound.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
Network
Research Task Force (RTF)
9 January 2018
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 205
Details
Abstract
This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices. Cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates are considerably shorter than those in credit and house prices and have little in common with the latter. Credit and house price cycles are weakly synchronous across countries and their volatilities vary widely – these differences may be related to the structural properties of housing and mortgage markets. Finally, DSGE models can replicate the volatility of cycles in house and equity prices, but not the persistence of house price cycles.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
2021
Journal of Financial Economics
  • Altavilla, C., Burlon, L., Giannetti, M. and Holton, S.
2021
Economic Modelling
  • Burlon, L., Notarpietro, A. and Pisani, M.
2021
The Manchester School
  • Bartocci, A., Burlon, L., Notarpietro, A. and Pisani, M.
2020
Journal of Macroeconomics
  • Burlon, L., and D'Imperio, P.
2019
Journal of Policy Modelling
  • Burlon, L., Notarpietro, A. and Pisani, M.
2019
Statistical Methods & Applications
  • Bulligan, G., Burlon, L., Delle Monache, D. and Silvestrini, A.
2018
Journal of International Money and Finance
  • Burlon, L., Gerali, A., Notarpietro, A. and Pisani, M.
2017
International Finance
  • Burlon, L., Gerali, A., Notarpietro, A. and Pisani, M.
2017
Journal of Public Economic Theory
  • Burlon, L.
2016
IZA Journal of Labor Policy
  • Burlon, L., and Vilalta-Bufí, M.
2020
CESifo Forum, vol. 21(01), pages 13-17
  • Altavilla, C., Boucinha, M., and Burlon, L.
2020
VoxEU article
  • Altavilla, C., Barbiero, F., Boucinha, M., and Burlon, L.
2019
VoxEU article
  • Altavilla, C., Burlon, L., Giannetti, M., and Holton, S.