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Eliza Lis

Economics

Division

Prices & Costs

Current Position

Lead Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Labour Economics

Email

Eliza.Lis@ecb.europa.eu

Other current responsibilities
2018-2019

Secretary, WGF Wage expert group

Education
2006-2010

PhD in Economics, WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Management, Vallendar, Germany, Summa cum laude

2001-2006

MSc in Economics, University of Maastricht, The Netherlands

Professional experience
2010-2013

Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA

2006-2010

Research and Teaching Assistant, WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Managment, Vallendar, Germany

Teaching experience
2007-2010

Lecturer for Macroeconomics, WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Managment, Vallendar, Germany

20 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
Food price inflation was one of the main contributors to the strong rise in euro area headline inflation in 2022 and to the period of disinflation that followed. An extraordinary surge in energy costs was the main factor behind higher consumer food inflation in 2021 and 2022. Increases in global food commodity prices and euro area farm gate prices also contributed significantly. In the high inflation environment, domestic factors – such as wage and profit developments – have gradually emerged as increasingly important factors in keeping food inflation elevated. The exceptional, largely externally driven shocks to energy, global food commodity and euro area farm gate prices are fading, and this is expected to contribute to a moderation in food inflation in the course of 2024. However, strong wage growth implies only a gradual unwinding going forward.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
23 May 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2821
Details
Abstract
Understanding of the macroeconomic effects of climate change is developing rapidly, but the implications for past and future inflation remain less well understood. Here we exploit a global dataset of monthly consumer price indices to identify the causal impacts of changes in climate on inflation, and to assess their implications under future warming. Flexibly accounting for heterogenous impacts across seasons and baseline climatic and socio-economic conditions, we find that increased average temperatures cause non-linear upwards inflationary pressures which persist over 12 months in both higher- and lower-income countries. Projections from state-of-the-art climate models show that in the absence of historically un-precedented adaptation, future warming will cause global increases in annual food and headline inflation of 0.92-3.23 and 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per year respectively, under 2035 projected climate (uncertainty range across emission scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications), as well as altering the seasonal dynamics of inflation. Moreover, we estimate that the 2022 summer heat extreme increased food inflation in Europe by 0.67 (0.43-0.93) percentage-points and that future warming projected for 2035 would amplify the impacts of such extremes by 50%. These results suggest that climate change poses risks to price stability by having an upward impact on inflation, altering its seasonality and amplifying the impacts caused by extremes.
JEL Code
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
15 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
In line with the ECB’s comprehensive action plan to incorporate climate change considerations into its policy framework, technical assumptions on carbon pricing have been introduced in the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, along with a regular evaluation of the impact of climate-related fiscal policies on the projections baseline. This box evaluates the impact of green fiscal measures on GDP growth and inflation and discusses potential effects and risks to the outlook posed by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and non-fiscal climate-related measures. The overall impact of green measures on euro area real GDP growth is expected to be very small until 2025, and their impact on inflation is limited but increases slightly over time. Over the period 2022-25, fiscal measures that are detrimental to the green transition outweigh green measures. Changes to the EU ETS under the “Fit for 55” package, and the sustained shift towards renewable energy sources implied by regulation, could pose both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, especially from 2025 onwards.
JEL Code
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
O44 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Environment and Growth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box provides an overview of the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on euro area energy markets. Energy commodity and electricity prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been highly volatile ever since. Russia supplies a considerable amount of energy to the euro area, particularly gas. The European Union introduced economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy industry, most notably the coal and oil sectors, while steps are also being taken towards becoming independent of Russian gas. After the initial price spikes, energy commodity prices moderated, owing partly to the EU’s sanctions and also helped by other policy initiatives such as historically large releases of strategic oil reserves. Higher energy commodity prices intensified the pressure on euro area consumer prices in February and March 2022, while some of this pressure was alleviated in April and May as a result of government measures.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?
23 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
In its climate change action plan, the ECB committed to accelerating the development of new models and conducting theoretical and empirical analyses to monitor the implications of climate change and related policies for the economy. As a first step in its detailed roadmap of climate-related actions, the ECB envisages the inclusion of technical assumptions on carbon pricing in Eurosystem/ECB staff projections. Against this backdrop, this box summarises the genesis and basic features of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the system setting the carbon price in the EU. The EU ETS, which began operating in 2005, is a “cap and trade” system where a cap is set by the EU on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by the activities covered by the system. It has been implemented in “phases” designed to gradually reduce the cap while increasing the scope of the system. In July 2021 a revision of the EU ETS was proposed in the context of the “Fit for 55” package. Meanwhile, the price of emissions allowances traded on the EU ETS has increased from €8 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent at the beginning of 2018 to around €60 more recently. So far, the main impact of changes in emissions allowance prices has been on HICP energy inflation, and, overall, the risk that emissions allowance prices under the current EU ETS may translate into significantly higher headline inflation in the near term appears limited. However, against the backdrop of the ECB’s recently announced action plan, these and other climate change mitigation polices will be further explored with regard to their implications for macroeconomic modelling and monetary policy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 280
Details
Abstract
From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the fall in underlying inflation, mainly in the first part of the low inflation period. Additionally, there is evidence that an underestimation of the amount of economic slack and less well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations, in combination with monetary policy in the euro area being constrained by the effective lower bound, have played an important role in the long period of subdued inflation. Ongoing disinflationary structural trends (such as globalisation, digitalisation and demographic factors) are likely to have had a dampening effect on inflation over the last few decades, but were in themselves not the main drivers of low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019. However, as they could not have been easily offset by interest rate policy in an effective lower bound environment, they might also have contributed to the more subdued inflation dynamics in the euro area from 2013 to 2019.
JEL Code
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 265
Details
Abstract
This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 – finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB’s definition of price stability. Nonetheless, there is scope for enhancing the HICP, especially by including owner-occupied housing (OOH) using the net acquisitions approach. Filling this long-standing gap is of utmost importance to increase the coverage and cross-country comparability of the HICP. In addition to integrating OOH into the HICP, further improvements would be welcome in harmonisation, especially regarding the treatment of product replacement and quality adjustment. Such measures may also help reduce the measurement bias that still exists in the HICP. Overall, a knowledge gap concerning the exact size of the measurement bias of the HICP remains, which calls for further research. More generally, the paper also finds that auxiliary inflation measures can play an important role in the ECB’s economic and monetary analyses. This applies not only to analytical series including OOH, but also to measures of underlying inflation or a cost of living index.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
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Abstract
This box analyses the developments in prices for travel-related services across items and across euro area countries. The purpose is to clarify the extent to which there are commonalities when it comes to explaining the sharp drop in travel-related services inflation.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
25 March 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2382
Details
Abstract
Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation can be on a downward trend. Using the structure of a two-sector overlapping generations model embedded in a New-Keynesian framework with price frictions, calibrated for the euro area, this paper shows that following a commonly specified monetary policy rule the economy features a ”disinflationary bias” since 1990, in a way that can match the downward trend of core inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a declining pattern at least until 2030. At the same time, changing consumption patterns towards nontradable items such as health-care generate a small ”inflationary bias” a positive deviation of inflation from target of less than 0.1 percentage points between 1990 and 2030. In the model setting of this paper, this inflationary bias is not strong enough to counteract the disinflationary bias generated by the downward impact of aging on the natural interest rate.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
3 September 2019
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 232
Details
Abstract
Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments in the euro area as a whole and in individual EU countries. The paper finds that cyclical drivers, as captured by a standard Phillips curve, seem to explain much of the weakness in wage growth during this period, but not all of it. Going beyond the drivers included in standard Phillips curves, other factors are also found to have played a role, such as compositional effects, the possible non-linear reaction of wage growth to cyclical improvements, and structural and institutional factors. In order to increase the robustness of wage forecasts, the paper also proposes ready-to-use tools for cross-checking euro area wage growth forecasts based on wage Phillips curves. These are derived based on a comprehensive real-time forecast evaluation exercise
JEL Code
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
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Abstract
This box assesses to what extent changes in seasonality and idiosyncratic price changes (defined as outliers) can explain recent short-term volatility in the profile of euro area HICP inflation excluding food and energy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
25 January 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2006
Details
Abstract
Most euro area countries have entered an unprecedented ageing process: life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates have declined, while retirement age in the last twenty to thirty years hardly increased. This implies an ever smaller fraction of the working age population in total population, leading to changes in consumption and saving behaviours and having an important impact on the macroeconomy. In this paper we focus on the relationship between demographic change and inflation. We find that based on a cointegrated VAR model there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and the growth rate of working-age population as a share in total population in the euro area countries as a whole, but also in the US and Germany. We also find that this relation is mitigated by the effect of monetary policy, which we account for by including the short-term interest rate in our analysis. One caveat of the analysis could be that the empirical relationship as found does not sufficiently take into account changes in policy settings following the high inflation experiences in the 1970s. Our findings support the view that demographic trends are among the forces that shape the economic environment in which monetary policy operates. This is particularly relevant for countries, like many in Europe, that face an ageing process.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Network
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
29 May 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1055
Details
Abstract
This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges between 0.23% and 1.1% of GDP depending on the country group. Developing countries face a much larger effect on changes in budget balances following an extreme weather event than do advanced economies. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for fiscal policy and publiclyprovided disaster insurance. Our policy conclusions point to the enhanced need to reach and maintain sound fiscal positions given that climate change is expected to cause an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters.
JEL Code
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
F59 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→Other
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
2014
Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy
  • Parry, I., Heine, D., Li, S., and Lis, E.
2014
International Monetary Fund
Getting Energy Prices Right : From Principle to Practice
  • Parry, I. W., Heine, M. D., Lis, E., and Li, S.
2011
Economic Modelling
  • Frenkel, M., Lis, E. M., and Rülke, J. C.
2010
Journal of Forecasting
  • Fendel, R., Lis, E. M., and Rülke, J. C.
2010
International Tax and Public Finance
  • Lis, E. M., and Nickel, C.
2009
Empirical Economic Letters
Expectations on the NAIRU - Evidence from the G7 Countries
  • Fendel, R., Lis, E. M., and Rülke, J. C.