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Níl an t-ábhar seo ar fáil i nGaeilge.

2021 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2021 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Mar. 2022 Mar. 2023 2025
Mean point estimate 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 62 60 48 47 38 45
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Mar. 2022 Mar. 2023 2025
<-1.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.50.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.10.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.41.4
0.0 to 0.4% 2.6 5.8 5.3 6.4 5.73.9
0.5 to 0.9% 9.0 15.4 12.4 15.5 13.010.0
1.0 to 1.4% 26.9 35.9 27.0 32.2 28.821.9
1.5 to 1.9% 39.5 25.3 32.4 24.7 30.534.0
2.0 to 2.4% 15.9 9.1 12.4 11.0 12.016.0
2.5 to 2.9% 3.6 3.5 4.6 3.8 4.26.8
3.0 to 3.4% 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.43.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.41.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.00.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Mar. 2022 Mar. 2023 2025
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6
Standard deviation 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 42 41 35 38 31 32
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Mar. 2022 Mar. 2023 2025
<-1.0% 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.10.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.40.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.61.3
0.0 to 0.4% 9.0 8.8 5.4 9.9 6.24.2
0.5 to 0.9% 29.4 25.7 18.1 28.1 22.713.7
1.0 to 1.4% 37.2 34.7 33.8 33.3 30.825.5
1.5 to 1.9% 17.3 19.8 25.4 17.7 25.630.5
2.0 to 2.4% 3.7 5.8 9.0 5.3 8.513.7
2.5 to 2.9% 1.0 1.8 3.5 1.6 2.65.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.4 1.13.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.41.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.00.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 2021 Q4 2022 Q4 2025
Mean point estimate 4.2 4.1 1.9 4.2 2.6 1.4
Standard deviation 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.3
Number of replies 62 60 49 51 48 46
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 2021 Q4 2022 Q4 2025
<-1.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.10.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.61.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.5 1.32.3
0.0 to 0.4% 0.4 0.5 3.0 0.9 2.46.1
0.5 to 0.9% 0.5 0.9 6.9 1.6 4.814.9
1.0 to 1.4% 0.7 1.4 17.4 3.1 8.224.5
1.5 to 1.9% 1.2 2.5 22.4 3.1 12.225.9
2.0 to 2.4% 2.4 5.0 21.0 3.5 14.713.3
2.5 to 2.9% 5.8 8.9 15.8 6.5 16.77.0
3.0 to 3.4% 13.2 15.6 6.6 13.1 16.32.1
3.5 to 3.9% 27.2 25.6 2.8 20.2 9.31.0
4.0 to 5.9% 38.8 30.8 1.2 29.3 8.40.7
6.0 to 7.9% 7.5 6.1 0.3 11.2 2.00.2
8.0 to 9.9% 1.8 1.9 0.1 4.2 0.50.1
>10.0% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.40.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Feb. 2022 Feb. 2023 2025
Mean point estimate 8.5 8.1 7.7 8.4 7.9 7.4
Standard deviation 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
Number of replies 55 53 44 37 33 39
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Feb. 2022 Feb. 2023 2025
<5.5% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.51.1
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 1.72.8
6.0 to 6.4% 0.5 1.5 2.9 1.2 2.66.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.9 3.8 8.7 2.7 7.114.1
7.0 to 7.4% 2.5 10.5 21.4 7.7 17.424.4
7.5 to 7.9% 12.0 24.6 28.6 18.6 22.419.5
8.0 to 8.4% 30.5 27.8 16.7 23.0 20.113.2
8.5 to 8.9% 32.5 14.3 9.5 23.3 11.37.0
9.0 to 9.4% 10.7 8.2 4.8 9.4 9.35.6
9.5 to 9.9% 5.5 4.4 3.0 5.7 3.72.6
10.0 to 10.4% 2.8 2.3 1.8 3.7 2.21.4
10.5 to 10.9% 1.4 1.3 0.2 2.8 0.30.7
11.0 to 11.4% 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.10.3
11.5 to 11.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0