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Tullio Jappelli

10 March 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1762
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Abstract
Data from the 2009 Internet Survey of the Health and Retirement Study show that many U.S. households experienced large capital losses in housing and financial wealth, and that 5% of respondents lost their job during the Great Recession. As a consequence of these shocks, many households reduced substantially their expenditures. For every 10% loss in housing and financial wealth, the estimated drop in household expenditure is about 0.56% and 0.9%, respectively. In addition, those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10%. We also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks, splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D91 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Household Choice, Life Cycle Models and Saving
Network
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
19 February 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2375
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Abstract
Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals’ expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation expectations when the latter are below (above) the ECB’s inflation target. These findings hold after controlling for people’s knowledge about the objectives of the ECB.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Network
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
18 December 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2507
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Abstract
Using new panel data from a representative survey of households in the six largest euro area economies, the paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the concern about finances due to Covid-19 from the first peak of the pandemic until October 2020. The results show that this concern causes a significant reduction in non-durable consumption. The paper also explores the potential impact on consumption of government interventions and of another wave of Covid-19, using household-level consumption adjustments to scenarios that involve positive and negative income shocks. Fears of the financial consequences of the pandemic induce a significant reduction in the marginal propensity to consume, an effect consistent with models of precautionary saving and liquidity constraints. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns through use of panel fixed effects and partial identification methods, which account also for time-varying unobservable variables, and provide informative identification regions of the average treatment effect of the concern for Covid-19 under weak assumptions.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
31 May 2021
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 84
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Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a complex economic shock that has affected households across the euro area very differently. In studying the impact of this shock on household consumption and the implications for the economic outlook it is critical to understand and factor in these large divergences. In this article, we use rich data from the Consumer Expectations Survey, a new ECB household survey that interviews around 10,000 households across the six largest euro area economies on a monthly basis. We document substantial divergences in pandemic-induced financial concerns of households across population subgroups and countries, with financial concerns being significantly higher for younger, female, and low-income individuals in countries where the first wave of COVID-19 was more severe. Also, we show how these concerns can account to a large extent for the drop in aggregate household spending in 2020. Reflecting this heterogeneity, our results imply that fiscal measures will be most effective in stabilising aggregate consumption and supporting economic recovery if they target the most vulnerable groups with the greatest financial concerns.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household