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Jakob Feveile Adolfsen

28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
After three years of below-average ocean surface temperatures, the arrival of El Niño this year implies risks to global food prices. El Niño is the warm phase of the temperature cycle in the East-Central tropical Pacific, when ocean surface temperatures exceed normal temperatures by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius. The effects of El Niño on climate patterns are complex, although the phenomenon is likely to put upward pressure on global food commodity prices due to higher risks of extreme weather events, which have already been taking place more frequently in recent years. The magnitude of the effect on global food commodity prices depends on the strength of the El Niño phenomenon. In turn, if current conditions develop into a strong El Niño, it could cause global food commodity prices to increase by up to 9%, with the strongest effects expected for soybeans, corn and rice. Accordingly, financial markets appeared to factor in future price increases for grains as well as higher uncertainty about future grain prices immediately after it was announced that El Niño conditions had arrived.
JEL Code
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q17 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Agriculture in International Trade
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
27 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
This box provides initial evidence of the impact on global oil markets and Russian oil flows of the EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian oil imposed in response to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Overall, international oil prices have declined amid resilient supply from Russia and lower global demand, despite the expected rebound of the Chinese economy. After some initial bottlenecks, Russia managed to redirect most of its crude oil exports from Europe to Asia, but only by continuing to offer significant price discounts relative to global prices. However, a stronger impact on global oil markets could still materialise, particularly as, since February, Russia has officially prohibited sales of crude oil to countries that adhere to the price cap mechanism. In addition, the sanctions on refined oil products are only in the early phase of implementation, with initial evidence showing that Russia is partly redirecting those flows towards Africa and unknown destinations while, in the absence of Russian imports, the European diesel market remains tight.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
14 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
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Abstract
As a result of the Russian curtailment of gas deliveries, the EU gas market has become increasingly interlinked with the Asian market for liquified natural gas (LNG). This box analyses global risks to the EU gas market in 2023 by focusing on two supply risks: (i) the ongoing risk to the remaining gas imports from Russia, and (ii) a rebound in Chinese energy demand resulting from the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown measures. If the EU decides to extend its current gas saving plan to the end of 2023, it could avoid facing a supply deficit, as long as Russia continues to deliver gas at the current low levels and Chinese gas demand remains low. However, if Russia cuts the remaining gas supplies to the EU and Chinese gas demand rebounds to 2021 levels, the EU could face a supply deficit of around 9% of projected gas consumption, and if one of the supply risks materialises, the EU’s supply deficit would be 2-4%. While there are ways of plugging this gap, EU gas security would become vulnerable to other less foreseeable shocks. For example, severe weather or a prolonged cold spell could deplete gas storage levels faster than expected and worsen the 2023 gas outlook.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
This box provides an overview of the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on euro area energy markets. Energy commodity and electricity prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been highly volatile ever since. Russia supplies a considerable amount of energy to the euro area, particularly gas. The European Union introduced economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy industry, most notably the coal and oil sectors, while steps are also being taken towards becoming independent of Russian gas. After the initial price spikes, energy commodity prices moderated, owing partly to the EU’s sanctions and also helped by other policy initiatives such as historically large releases of strategic oil reserves. Higher energy commodity prices intensified the pressure on euro area consumer prices in February and March 2022, while some of this pressure was alleviated in April and May as a result of government measures.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?