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Claudio Baccianti

21 September 2021
The aim of this report is to foster a better understanding of past trends in, and drivers of, productivity growth in the countries of the European Union (EU) and of the interplay between productivity and monetary policy. To this end, a group of experts from 15 national central banks and the European Central Bank (ECB) joined forces and pooled data and expertise for more than 18 months to produce the report. Group members drew on the extensive research already conducted on productivity growth, including within the European System of Central Banks and in the context of the review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, and worked together to conduct new analyses.After recalling the key facts and figures, the report looks into the predominant drivers of productivity growth in firms, with a focus on technology as a key determinant of aggregate productivity dynamics. It then discusses the main factors behind resource reallocation both across incumbent firms and as a result of the entry and exit of firms. Although productivity is a real-economy phenomenon and its evolution predominantly hinges on the structural features of the economy and national policies, the report also raises the question of the extent to which, and under what circumstances, monetary policy may affect productivity. In addition, it places productivity in a broader perspective by taking into account other important structural trends that are expected to have an impact on productivity in the medium-to-long run, such as globalisation, population ageing, climate change and digitalisation. Finally, the report considers the possible impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on productivity in EU countries. ...
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
22 June 2020
This Occasional Paper reviews how climate change and policies to address it may affect the macro economy in ways that are relevant for central banks’ monetary policy assessment of the inflation outlook. To this end, the paper focuses on the potential channels through which climate change and the policy and technological responses to climate change could have an impact on the real economy. Overall, the existing literature suggests a likelihood that climate change will have demand-side implications, but will also cause a negative supply shock in the decades to come and may even have the potential to lead to widespread disruption to the economic and financial system. We may already be observing a rise in the costs resulting from an increased incidence of extreme weather conditions. The direct effects stemming from climate change are likely to increase gradually over time as global temperatures increase. Nevertheless, it is extremely difficult to obtain reliable estimates of the overall macroeconomic impact of climate change, which will also depend on the extent to which it can be brought under control through mitigation policies requiring major structural changes to the economy. In order to implement such policies political economy obstacles will need to be overcome and measures will need to be put in place that address underlying market failures. They could involve significant fiscal implications, with an increased price of carbon contributing to higher overall prices. At the same time, these measures could also foster innovation, generate fiscal revenues and dampen inflationary pressures as energy efficiency increases and the price of renewable energy falls.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy