Não disponível em português
Afonso S. Moura
Economics
- Division
Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- Education
- 2019-2025
PhD Economics, Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon Portugal
- 2017-2019
MA Economics, Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon, Portugal
- 2013-2017
BA Economics, FEP university of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Professional experience
- 2025-
Economist - Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2023-2025
Economist - Public Finances and Structural Studies, Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal
- 2023
PhD trainee - Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2022
PhD trainee - ICD General Macro and Fiscal Division, International Monetary Fund
- Teaching experience
- 2019-2025
Principles of Macroeconomics, Macroeconomics of Financial Markets, Financial Crises in History, Development Economics, Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon, Portugal
- 11 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3309The real and financial effects of local corporate tax increases: evidence from linked firm–bank dataDetails
- Abstract
- We study how local corporate tax increases affect firms’ financing and real activity. In Portugal, municipalities independently set a surtax on corporate income, generating plausibly exogenous variation across space and time. We link the universe of corporate balance sheets and profit-and-loss statements to loan-level data from the Bank of Portugal’s credit registry, allowing us to track firms’ liquidity, leverage, borrowing costs, and credit quality alongside revenues, employment, and productivity. We estimate local-projection difference-in-differences models that address staggered treatment timing and dynamic responses. Surtax hikes immediately tighten financing conditions: liquidity falls, implicit interest rates rise, debt increases at shorter maturities, and non-performing loans become more prevalent. These strains spill over into real outcomes: firms reduce sales and employment and experience persistent declines in total factor productivity. Effects are strongest among small firms, where leverage rises in response to liquidity losses. We also find higher exit and relocation probabilities, but no gains in neighboring output, pointing to inefficient reallocation. Our results highlight how local tax policy can transmit through both financial and real margins, with implications for fiscal design in decentralized settings.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
H71 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- 6 July 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 390Details
- Abstract
- This Occasional Paper reviews evidence from the ChaMP Research Network on the transmission of monetary policy to households in the euro area – an area of monetary policy that has attracted less attention among researchers. It highlights thecentral role of banks and non-bank intermediaries in shaping how policy affects borrowing, saving and consumption. Despite the overall effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area, the pass-through of policy rates to household borrowingcosts is incomplete and heterogeneous, reflecting differences in funding structures, market power and institutional settings.A key insight is that transmission depends on household heterogeneity. Differences in balance sheets, credit access and housing market characteristics produce uneven effects across income, age and wealth groups, with important implications foraggregate demand and distributional consequences. Another key finding is that several components of consumption respond more rapidly to changes in interest rates than previously thought, especially in high-debt, variable-rate environments.Overall, the findings point to the need for an integrated, system-wide perspective that accounts for multiple aspects of financial structure and heterogeneity when assessing monetary policy transmission. ChaMP research also highlights the valueof readily available granular data, as many novel findings stem from a major coordinated effort to use new data on households obtained from national credit registers, as well as novel granular data on household expenditure.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 13 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box shows that older workers have contributed significantly to euro area employment growth in recent years, largely because they are retiring later. The share of retired individuals in the total population shows little sensitivity to the economic cycle, but has decreased steadily over the past two decades, with this decline having shifted more towards older age groups. The share of retirees is still falling among individuals in their early to mid-60s and appears likely to also do so among older age groups. At the same time, statutory retirement ages do not seem to have been the main contributing factor to the observed increases in average retirement ages. Looking ahead, the evidence suggests that overall retirement ages will continue to increase, in line with the projections presented in the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
- 18 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2989Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses how country-specific institutional quality shapes the impact of monetary policy on downside risks to GDP growth in the euro area. Using identified high-frequency shocks in a growth-at-risk framework, we show that monetary policy has a higher impact on downside risks in the short term than in the medium term. However, this result for the euro area average hides significant heterogeneity across countries. In economies with weak institutional quality, medium-term growth risks increase substantially following contractionary monetary policy shocks. In contrast, these risks remain relatively stable in countries with high institutional quality. This suggests that improvements in institutional quality could significantly enhance euro area countries’ economic resilience and support the smooth transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth