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Expectations surveys: a tool for research and monetary policy

Second joint European Central Bank-Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference

Thursday, 11 and Friday, 12 November 2021

Online event

The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research on expectations surveys, including surveys of households, firms, financial market participants, analysts, and other experts such as professional forecasters. The focus of this second joint European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference will be on the use of such surveys to measure and understand economic expectations, as well as how expectations feed into economic decisions with potentially wide-reaching implications for the economy and for monetary policy.


Times are Central European Time (UTC+1)

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 11 November 2021

Welcome address

Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Watch again


Session 1

Session chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank


Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data

  • Marco Bottone, Banca d’Italia
  • Alex Tagliabracci*, Banca d’Italia
  • Giordano Zevi, Banca d’Italia

Diverse policy committees can reach underrepresented groups

  • Francesco D’Acunto, Boston College
  • Andreas Fuster, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Michael Weber*, University of Chicago

Would households understand average inflation targeting?

  • Mathias Hoffmann, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Emanuel Mönch, Deutsche Bundesbank, Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Lora Pavlova*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Guido Schultefrankenfeld, Deutsche Bundesbank

Session 2

Session chair: Livio Stracca, European Central Bank


News and uncertainty about COVID-19: survey evidence and short-run economic impact

  • Alexander Dietrich, University of Tübingen
  • Keith Kuester, University of Bonn
  • Gernot Müller*, University of Tübingen
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Business expectations and uncertainty in developing and emerging economies

  • Edgar Avalos, The World Bank
  • José María Barrero*, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México
  • Elwyn Davies, The World Bank
  • Leonardo Iacovone, The World Bank
  • Jesica Torres, The World Bank

Belief-dependent pricing decisions

  • Serafín Frache, Universidad de Montevideo
  • Rodrigo Lluberas, Universidad ORT Uruguay
  • Javier Turen Roman*, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Keynote speech: How do people understand the economy?

Stefanie Stantcheva, Harvard University

Chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

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Session 3

Session chair: Beatrice Pierluigi, European Central Bank


Forecasting UK GDP growth with large survey panels

Eleni Kalamara*, King’s College London


Disagreement about monetary policy

Karthik Sastry*, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys

  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Argia Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Giorgio Topa*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • John C. Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

End of first conference day

Friday, 12 November 2021



Session 4

Session chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank


Beliefs and portfolios: causal evidence

  • Johannes Beutel*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Michael Weber, University of Chicago

Inflation expectations and portfolio rebalancing of households: evidence from inflation targeting in India

  • Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore
  • Yeow Hwee Chua*, National University of Singapore
  • Pulak Ghosh, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
  • Changcheng Song, Singapore Management University

Beliefs about the stock market and investment choices: evidence from a field experiment

  • Christine Laudenbach, University of Bonn
  • Annika Weber, Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Johannes Wohlfart*, University of Copenhagen

Session 5

Session chair: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank


Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from a new consumer survey

  • Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

The effects of forward guidance: theory with measured expectations

  • Christopher Roth, University of Cologne
  • Mirko Wiederholt*, Paris Institute of Political Sciences
  • Johannes Wohlfart, University of Copenhagen

Inflation disasters and consumption

Jane Ryngaert*, Wake Forest University


Keynote speech: Recent movements in inflation expectations

Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics

Chair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Watch live from 17:00 CET


Session 6

Session chair: Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Expectation formation and uncertain information quality: evidence and theory

  • Heng Chen, The University of Hong Kong
  • Xu Li, The University of Hong Kong
  • Guangyu Pei*, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
  • Qian Xin, Harbin Institute of Technology

For better or worse? Subjective expectations and cost-benefit trade-offs in health behaviour: an application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom

  • Gabriella Conti, University College London
  • Pamela Giustinelli*, Bocconi University

Contracts and firms’ inflation expectations

  • Dennis Wesselbaum*, University of Otago
  • Saten Kumar, Auckland University of Technology
Closing remarks
End of conference

Audiovisual notice: Images and video recordings may be published online

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

General information


Online event

Conference language


Organising committee

  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  • Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Luc Laeven, European Central Bank
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York