European Central Bank - eurosystem
Opções de pesquisa
Página inicial Sala de Imprensa Notas explicativas Estudos e publicações Estatísticas Política monetária O euro Pagamentos e mercados Carreiras
Sugestões
Ordenar por
Não disponível em português

Marta Rodríguez-Vives

27 April 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 291
Details
Abstract
This paper assesses the potential economic impact of Next Generation EU (NGEU), focusing on the euro area. Its findings suggest that the envisaged national investment and reform plans present a coherent package to support both recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis and longer-term modernisation of the euro area economy through their digital and green transitions. NGEU, however, can only unfold its full potential if all plans are implemented in a timely and effective way. We estimate the impact of the national plans on output, inflation and public debt using ECB staff economic models under the assumption of successful implementation. Specifically, NGEU is expected to take effect through three channels: structural reform, fiscal stimulus and risk premium. Overall, NGEU may increase gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area by up to 1.5% by 2026, with the impact expected to be significantly larger in the main beneficiary countries. In Italy and Spain, two of the main beneficiaries, the public debt-to-GDP ratio may be more than 10 percentage points lower by 2031. At the same time, all euro area countries are expected to benefit from NGEU through positive spillovers, greater economic resilience and convergence across countries. Finally, the effect of NGEU on euro area inflation over the medium term is deemed to be contained to the extent that the inflationary effect of additional public expenditure is offset, at least to some degree, by the disinflationary effect of greater productive capacity resulting from the planned structural reform and investment measures.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
15 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
The article takes stock of Next Generation EU (NGEU) from a euro area perspective. NGEU is a temporary crisis instrument that, if implemented successfully, is expected to significantly improve Europe’s economic prospects. In the short term, it should support the recovery of the EU economy. In the medium term, NGEU should help to modernise the EU economies, with positive effects on their growth potential, resilience and convergence. The article provides a synthesis of the fiscal measures and structural reforms embedded in the national recovery and resilience plans of euro area countries. It also looks at the economic impact of the planned investments. Finally, the article examines the novel governance approach that can sustain a successful implementation of NGEU.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
3 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article looks at the government support for firms during the COVID-19 crisis in the form of subsidies, transfers, government guarantees and other forms of financing, such as loans at low interest rates and equity injections. It highlights that these government responses may substantially change the composition and dynamics of balance sheets. The article also discusses the implications of the responses for the size of government balance sheets. In addition, the phasing out of government support needs to be carefully aligned with economic and social objectives.
JEL Code
D3 : Microeconomics→Distribution
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
7 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
At a time of high government indebtedness, low structural economic growth and ageing populations, a key element in today’s policy debate is the role of government in providing its services and distributing resources to society. Government decisions on tax and social benefit systems have an important bearing on macroeconomic performance in the euro area. This article focuses on how social spending on individual households or on the provision of collective goods and services is organised in euro area countries. Choices made concerning the level and structure of social spending are country-specific and reflect societal policy preferences. The aim of this article is to review government social spending across euro area countries and how it has evolved since the pre-crisis period. It also zooms in on the different social insurance systems in euro area countries in terms of pensions and health and looks at spending on education. We devote particular attention to the analysis of pensions, as pensions represent the biggest social spending item in all countries. The article suggests that countries should look for policies and reforms to ensure the sustainability of social spending, especially in view of ageing populations and possible negative economic shocks.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H40 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→General
H51 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Health
H52 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Education
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
23 January 2017
STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 19
Details
Abstract
The policy focus on excessive leverage in the euro area has raised interest in developing comprehensive analytical approaches to better understand the interrelationship between leverage and deleveraging processes across economic agents. In particular, the interplay between government debt and private leverage is attracting increasing attention in the current context of simultaneous deleveraging adjustments. However, analyses of the subject are generally partial in that they fail to take into account feedback effects on balance sheet positions across economic agents. This paper attempts to clarify these cross-agent interlinkages by examining concepts, relationships and restrictions taken from the national accounts framework. Hence, the paper presents a mechanism that captures how increased leverage in certain agents contributes, ceteris paribus, to a reduction in leverage in the rest of the economy. The novelty of the underlying framework for leverage behaviour is that it takes the financial assets held by agents into consideration.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
11 August 2016
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 176
Details
Abstract
This paper examines the overall macroeconomic impact arising from reform in government wages and employment, at times of fiscal consolidation. Reform of these two components of the government wage bill appeared necessary for containing the deterioration of the public finances in several EU countries, as a consequence of the financial crisis. Such reforms entailed in some instances, but not always, the implementation of cost-cutting measures affecting the government wage bill, as part of broader consolidation packages that typically hinged more heavily on other fiscal instruments, like public investment. While such measures have adverse short-term macroeconomic effects, public wage bill restraining policy changes present the idiosyncrasy that they can yield medium- to longer-term benefits due to possible competitiveness and efficiency gains through their impact on labour market dynamics. This paper provides some evidence of such medium- to long-run effects, based on a wealth of micro and macro data in the euro area and the EU. It concludes that appropriately designed government wage bill moderation could indeed produce positive dividends to the economy, which depend on certain country-specific conditions. These gains can be reinforced by relevant fiscal-structural reforms.
JEL Code
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J45 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→Public Sector Labor Markets
18 October 2011
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 132
Details
Abstract
This paper explains the various concepts of government debt in the euro area with particular emphasis on its size and composition. In terms of size, the paper focuses on different definitions that are in use, in particular the concept of gross general government debt used in the surveillance of the euro area countries, the total liabilities from the government balance sheet approach, and the net debt concept which subtracts government financial assets from the liability side. In addition, it discusses
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
P24 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→National Income, Product, and Expenditure, Money, Inflation
27 May 2011
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1342
Details
Abstract
Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data in the functioning of EU
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General