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Grigor Stoevsky

8 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
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Abstract
This box assesses the recent dynamics and outlook for economic activity in more contact-intensive services in the euro area, which were particularly adversely affected by the pandemic. Following the marked deterioration during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, value added in those services rebounded strongly in the second and third quarters of 2021, while remaining well below its pre-pandemic level. The ample slack in these subsectors is also confirmed by the significant role of demand as a factor limiting activity, which in turn appears to be affected by pandemic restrictions. The gradual resolution of the public health crisis and the ensuing reopening of the economy are expected to support a continued recovery in more contact-intensive services. In the medium term, structural factors, such as changes in households’ preferences and working arrangements, will also play a role in shaping the recovery path of consumer services.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
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Abstract
This box shows how the economic impact of containment measures adopted in response to the pandemic differed across sectors and countries, and over time. The impact is assessed with a cross-sector vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results confirm that containment measures had a relatively large impact on sectors with non-teleworkable, contact-intensive occupations, such as recreational services. They also show that the impact of the measures varied across countries largely due to the different economic structures and containment policies. There is evidence that economic agents learned how to cope with the restrictions over time. This suggests that more targeted measures, coupled with behavioural responses by households and firms, helped limit the economic costs of containment policies during the renewed wave. Looking ahead, the large divergence in the economic impact of restrictions across sectors is likely to persist at least in the short term.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
5 October 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2475
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Abstract
We estimate a modified version of the “Financial Business Cycles” model originally developed by Iacoviello (2015) in order to investigate the role played by financial factors in driving the business cycle in the euro area. In the model, financial shocks such as borrower defaults, collateral shocks and credit supply effects amplify economic downturns by reducing the flow of credit from banks to the real sector. In this novel application to the euro area, we introduce capital reallocation inefficiency, an innovation to the original set-up which allows for more realistic effects of entrepreneur defaults on economic activity. Our results suggest that financial factors, as captured by this model, played a smaller role in the euro area throughout the double-dip recession than in the United States during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. In a scenario on second-round effects implied by potential NFC loan losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we find large financial amplification risks to real economic activity.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
1 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
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Abstract
This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E33 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
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Abstract
The degree of business cycle synchronisation, both across the euro area countries as well as between the euro area and the rest of the world, is a pertinent research question. Regarding the euro area, the endogenous optimal currency area (OCA) hypothesis suggests that the degree of business cycle synchronisation among the participating countries should increase over time as a result of deepening financial and trade integration. Individual countries should thus become less exposed to idiosyncratic shocks, facilitating the effectiveness of the single monetary policy. Against this background, this box presents and analyses several measures of business cycle synchronisation both within the euro area as well as from a global perspective.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
8 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
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Abstract
This article documents the key role that private consumption has played in recent output growth (2013-18), and asks how long the current growth in consumption can continue and whether it is self-sustaining. To that end, this article tries to identify the relative importance of different factors driving consumption, such as the recovery in the labour market, accommodative monetary policy, the 2014-15 drop in oil prices, the increase in asset prices, the easing of credit conditions and deleveraging. As the fall in consumption from 2008 to 2013 was very heterogeneous across countries, this article also sheds light on the extent to which the current expansion has actually led to a net increase in consumption over the past decade. This is relevant because private consumption is also a prime indicator of the economic well-being of households. While the growth of consumption has been low compared with previous expansions, since 2013 it has exceeded initial expectations. It has been driven mainly by the recovery in the labour market, even though unemployment in some countries and for some groups of workers remains higher than before 2008. Looking forward, as labour markets continue to improve, private consumption should expand further in all countries and for all groups of workers. Through its impact on the labour market, the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy is not only contributing to the expansion of private consumption, but also to a decrease in inequality. At the same time, there is little evidence that low interest rates have led to generalised increases in household indebtedness, supporting the sustainability of the overall economic expansion.
JEL Code
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General