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Adrian Schmith

International & European Relations

Division

External Developments

Current Position

Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics

Email

adrian.schmith@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2018

MSc in Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Professional experience
2021-2022

Senior Economist - Macro Surveillance and Forecasting, Department of Economics and Monetary Policy, Danmarks Nationalbank

2019-2021

Economist - Macro Surveillance and Forecasting, Department of Economics and Monetary Policy, Danmarks Nationalbank

12 April 2023
THE ECB BLOG
Details
JEL Code
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
27 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box provides initial evidence of the impact on global oil markets and Russian oil flows of the EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian oil imposed in response to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Overall, international oil prices have declined amid resilient supply from Russia and lower global demand, despite the expected rebound of the Chinese economy. After some initial bottlenecks, Russia managed to redirect most of its crude oil exports from Europe to Asia, but only by continuing to offer significant price discounts relative to global prices. However, a stronger impact on global oil markets could still materialise, particularly as, since February, Russia has officially prohibited sales of crude oil to countries that adhere to the price cap mechanism. In addition, the sanctions on refined oil products are only in the early phase of implementation, with initial evidence showing that Russia is partly redirecting those flows towards Africa and unknown destinations while, in the absence of Russian imports, the European diesel market remains tight.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles