Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
18 February 2026
Trade diversion from US tariffs?
Global trade flows shifted in 2025. But early evidence suggests that trade diversion from US tariffs has been limited so far. While US imports from China fell sharply, strong Chinese export growth across other regions seems to have been driven more by structural factors.
Read Box 1 of the Economic Bulletin
PRESS RELEASE
17 February 2026
Frank Elderson stays on as Vice-Chair
Mr Elderson’s term as Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board has been extended, following final approval from the Council of the European Union. He will continue in this role until the end of his term on the Executive Board in December 2028.
Read more about the Vice-Chair extension
RESEARCH
16 February 2026
Young economists wanted!
Are you a PhD student in economics or finance? Apply for our Young Economist Prize by 2 March 2026 to be in with a chance of winning €10,000 and sharing your research at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.
Apply for our Young Economist Prize- 18 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 17 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 17 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 14 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 14 February 2026
- EUREP FAQ
- 13 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 18 February 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities in cooperation with ESMT in Berlin, Germany
- 18 February 2026
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at ABI Executive Committee meeting
- 14 February 2026
- Opening remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at a roundtable discussion on “Chain Reaction: Navigating Geoeconomic Shifts and Dependencies” at the Munich Security Conference, Germany
- 12 February 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The World Ahead 2026: Sofia Gala Dinner
- 12 February 2026
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
- 10 February 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marta Vilar on 6 February 2026
- 8 February 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Thalia Neophytou on 6 February 2026
- 28 January 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Manuel V. Gomez on 22 January 2026
- 26 January 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Markus Zydra and Meike Schreiber on 15 January 2026
- 15 January 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kathryn Carlson, Geoffrey Smith and Johanna Treeck
- 16 February 2026
- Artificial intelligence has the potential to make economic research more effective. But how exactly? This ECB Blog post gives a concrete example. We look at the use of AI to streamline the processes and analytical capabilities of our Corporate Telephone Survey.Details
- JEL Code
- O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
C00 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→General
- 13 February 2026
- Europe’s largest asset managers serve investors across the EU. Yet they remain supervised solely at national level, creating potential blind spots for risks. This calls for a European approach to their supervision, which could also foster cross-border financing.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
- 12 February 2026
- Europe has ideas, talent and strong institutions, but it lacks scale. By introducing a 28th regime, Europe can unlock its full potential, allowing firms to turn innovation into economic growth.Details
- JEL Code
- O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
- 10 February 2026
- Import tariffs imposed by other countries tend to lower euro area inflation and weaken growth. However, the sectors most exposed are also the most responsive to interest rate changes. This means that monetary policy can help offset disinflationary pressures and support activity.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 6 February 2026
- Bulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January 2026. With this, Българската народна банка (the Bulgarian National Bank) became a full shareholder and the Bulgarian governor has taken a seat on the ECB’s Governing Council. This blog post explains what this means for the Eurosystem.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 18 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Global trade flows experienced significant shifts in 2025 following new US tariffs. After an initial frontloading surge, US imports from China declined sharply, while Chinese exports demonstrated resilience overall, with broad-based growth across destinations outside the United States. Preliminary empirical analysis shows that US tariffs had a strong negative effect on China’s exports to the United States but have resulted in limited trade diversion to other markets so far. Trade diversion effects are found to be concentrated in a narrow set of products and destinations, notably countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa. Overall, China’s export growth appears to be driven by structural factors, such as rising competitiveness, weak domestic demand and deeper regional supply chain integration, rather than large-scale tariff-induced trade diversion.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 17 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Euro area housing investment has declined steadily in recent years but appears to have bottomed out at the end of 2024. This box analyses the fundamental drivers of recent housing investment dynamics using a structural empirical model. The results indicate that weak broader macroeconomic conditions and the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening have weighed on housing investment, although this has been somewhat offset by improving housing-specific demand. Looking ahead, housing investment is expected to gradually recover as demand for housing strengthens, economic growth improves and the effects of monetary policy easing feed through.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 17 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3189Details
- Abstract
- It is well known that standard frequentist inference breaks down in IV regressions with weak instruments. Bayesian inference with diffuse priors suffers from the same problem. We show that the issue arises because flat priors on the first-stage coefficients overstate instrument strength. In contrast, inference improves drastically when an uninformative prior is specified directly on the concentration parameter—the key nuisance parameter capturing instrument relevance. The resulting Bayesian credible intervals are asymptotically equivalent to the frequentist confidence intervals based on conditioning approaches, and remain robust to weak instruments.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C26 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C36 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 17 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Electrification is central to the decarbonisation objectives of the EU. Yet, electricity prices remain elevated across the euro area compared with levels observed before the 2021-22 energy crisis, while households pay around twice as much as energy-intensive industries. This box examines the drivers of these differences in the five largest euro area countries. While short-term relief measures such as price caps and tax reductions can ease price pressures, these do not address the underlying drivers of high electricity prices. Moreover, these measures should be devised so as not to weaken decarbonisation incentives for energy-intensive industries.
- JEL Code
- Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
- 16 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3188Details
- Abstract
- Under which conditions do usability constraints for regulatory capital buffers emerge? To answer this question, we build a non-linear structural banking sector model with a minimum capital requirement that banks are not allowed to breach, and a capital buffer requirement (CBR) that banks can breach but if they do so potential stigma applies. We prove that even very low stigma costs induce large buffer usability constraints, i.e. when faced with losses banks will deleverage significantly to avoid that their capital ratio falls below the CBR. Our findings imply that non-releasble regulatory capital buffers are unlikely to fully achieve their macro stabilisation goal to support aggregate loan supply when the banking system faces losses.
- JEL Code
- D21 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Theory
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 16 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the state of play for green innovation in the EU and identifies the structural barriers that are constraining the adoption and scaling- up of low-carbon technologies. These include unpriced environmental externalities, knowledge spillovers, limited risk capital markets, regulatory complexity, skills shortages and insufficient enabling infrastructure. The analysis highlights how these structural barriers interact to slow the green transition and raise transition costs. Drawing on recent ECB analysis and insights from corporate earnings calls, this article shows that addressing these obstacles requires a comprehensive policy mix, including carbon pricing, enhanced temporary subsidies, and structural policies that improve the business environment, facilitate the reallocation of resources, and stimulate competition and entrepreneurship.
- JEL Code
- Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- 12 February 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 12 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3187Details
- Abstract
- Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) manage counterparty risk by requiring clearing members to post margins. This paper explores the role of margins as “canaries in the coal mine:” By inducing defaults of fragile counterparties before contract maturity, margin calls enable CCPs to transfer these contracts to other counterparties, thereby preserving risk sharing. Our model reveals a pecking order of CCP risk management tools. When fragility is low, loss sharing among original counterparties suffices. When fragility is high, such that defaults at contract maturity would trigger cascading failures among clearing members, the CCP optimally complements loss sharing with margins. It is optimal to use margins as canaries when the balance sheets of fragile counterparties are severely impaired. Our findings highlight the complementary nature of CCP risk management tools: margins, loss sharing, and counterparty replacement.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
- 12 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3186Details
- Abstract
- We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together with other high-frequency macroeconomic and financial variables, as well as real GDP and the GDP deflator. Our model produces timely monthly density nowcasts of the annual deficit ratio, while governments and official institutions generally only publish their point predictions bi-annually. Based on a database of real-time vintages of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal variables for Italy, we show that the nowcasts of the annual deficit to GDP ratio of our model are similarly or more accurate than those of the European Commission, depending on the month in which the nowcast is produced. Our scenario analysis compares the dynamics of the deficit ratio associated with a monetary and a typical recession, finding a more muted response in the latter case.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 11 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3185Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the relationship between institutional and regulatory quality, and high-tech sector investment. Using data from 25 European Union (EU) countries from 2004 to 2019 (extended to 2023 for artificial intelligence-specific analyses), the study examines how institutional governance, labour market regulations, and business regulations influence investments in innovative, high-tech, and artificial intelligence-intensive sectors. The findings reveal that better institutional quality and less burdensome regulations are associated with higher investment shares in innovative, high-tech, and artificial intelligence industries. Raising EU countries’ institutional and regulatory quality to the level of the current EU frontier could raise the share of investment in high-technology sectors by as much as 50%, hence notably narrowing the existent EU-US investment gap. These results highlight the importance of effective governance and efficient regulations in fostering investment, innovation, and therefore long-term productivity growth.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
O38 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Government Policy
- 11 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3184Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the role of insurance in mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of climate-related catastrophes. We first develop a stylised theoretical growth model which incorporates a role for natural catastrophes, climate change and insurance. This illustrates how insurance can mitigate the impact of catastrophes and articulates the potential effect of falling insurance coverage as global warming intensifies. The model also provides a basis for our empirical analysis which explores the link between insurance coverage and the macroeconomic impact of catastrophes for a sample of several thousand disaster events across 47 developed and middle income countries between 1996 and 2019. The results confirm that higher insurance coverage is associated with less severe macroeconomic consequences of disasters. With climate-related catastrophes becoming ever more frequent and severe, our findings highlight the importance of developing policies to reduce the climate insurance protection gap.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G52 : Financial Economics
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 11 February 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3183Details
- Abstract
- I study price level determination in a currency union when some member countries’ government securities earn a convenience yield. These ”convenience assets” generate fiscal seigniorage revenues that, given appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, back the union’s price level, much like primary surpluses and monetary seigniorage do. An exogenous drop in the private-sector demand for convenience assets reduces seigniorage revenues and raises the price level. It also results in a wealth transfer across countries owing to the heterogeneity in convenience yields.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 10 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3182Details
- Abstract
- We document empirically the money demand by European non-financial corporations by exploiting a unique and brand-new survey on their cash usage in a stress period. We also assess: (i) the relation between cash held and firm size; and (ii) estimate point values of cash holdings and carry out statistical comparisons along the sectoral and country dimensions. First, we find that cash holdings are inversely related to firm size, providing additional evidence that Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) tend to store more cash relative to their larger peers. Second, we find that cash-intensive sectors and” cash-friendly” countries display right-shifted distributions of cash holdings with statistically-significant larger average holdings. We argue that in a low interest rate and low inflation environment cash holdings serve as a store of value for European firms, in particular for SMEs which are more likely to be financially constrained, especially in crisis times.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 9 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3181Details
- Abstract
- We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010–2019, roughly a four-percentage-point increase; it then fell quickly in 2023 and more slowly in 2024, ending close to its pre-pandemic level. The decline in the frequency of price changes was faster for food and nonenergy industrial goods (NEIG) than for services, where frequencies remained elevated in 2024. The overall frequency rose mainly because there were more price increases, while the magnitude of the average size of the price increases or decreases changed only marginally during the surge. Products with a larger imported-energy cost share responded more strongly, and hazard-rate evidence shows that the probability of price adjustments increases with the gap between actual and optimal prices, consistent with state-dependent pricing and a steepening of the Phillips curve. To illustrate the implications of this state dependence, a macro model suggests that peak inflation would have been almost 1 percentage point lower if the frequency had not responded to the inflation surge.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 9 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3180Details
- Abstract
- Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970–2025) with a structural VAR analysis that disentangles the roles of aggregate demand and supply, monetary policy, and factor-substitution shocks. Our findings show that, in contrast to the 1970s and 1980s, the decline in real wages has supported labour demand and, more broadly, the labour market, thereby helping to explain the decoupling between output and employment. We also find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger impact on output than on employment,further amplifying the pro-cyclicality of labour productivity.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 9 February 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 6 February 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 6 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 79 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 5 and 14 January 2026, business momentum and confidence had continued to improve in recent months, although the outlook was clouded by concerns surrounding the competitiveness of the euro area in the wake of changing global trade patterns. Employment growth and its outlook remained lacklustre. Price growth remained moderate overall and continued to be driven by growth in services prices. Firms continued to anticipate further wage moderation.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 6 February 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 6 February 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
Related- 6 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2.00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2.15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2.40 % |
Inflation rate
More on inflationExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1845 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 181.99 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87240 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9124 |
Financial stability
Our tasks Institutional framework Financial Stability Review Macroprudential policy measuresMarket operations
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