Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the first quarter of 2026

6 February 2026

• Headline and core HICP inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons
• Real GDP growth expectations unchanged except for a slight upward revision for 2026
• Unemployment rate expectations unchanged for 2026 and 2027 but slightly lower thereafter

Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were 1.8% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were unchanged compared with the previous round (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025). Expectations for 2028 were not included in the previous survey. Meanwhile, expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were 2.0% across all horizons, also unchanged from the previous survey. Expectations for the longer term (2030) were unchanged at 2.0% for both headline and core HICP inflation.

Respondents expected real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026,1.4% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028. Compared with the previous survey, expectations were revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2026 but were unchanged for 2027. The upward revision for 2026 was mainly driven by a carry-over from the better-than-previously-expected GDP data for the third quarter of 2025. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%.

Unemployment rate expectations were unchanged for 2026 and 2027 and revised down slightly for the longer term. Respondents expected the unemployment rate to be 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, and 6.1% for 2028 and the longer term (2030).

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Notes

• The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2026 was conducted between 7 and 12 January 2026 and 62 responses were received. The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The survey participants are experts affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions based in Europe. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area will be published on 19 March 2026.
• Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-14: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
• The survey report and more detailed data are available via the SPF webpage and the ECB Data Portal.