Opciones de búsqueda
Home Medios El BCE explicado Estudios y publicaciones Estadísticas Política monetaria El euro Pagos y mercados Empleo
Ordenar por
No disponible en español

First workshop on expectations surveys:
a tool for research and monetary policy

Sponsored by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Thursday, 21 and Friday, 22 November 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

This first workshop, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank, will feature a diverse array of new research based on expectations surveys in both economics and finance. It will take place in New York, with a second follow-up event scheduled to take place in Frankfurt in 2020.


* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 21 November 2019
Registration and continental breakfast

Welcoming remarks

Beverly Hirtle, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Plenary 1

Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley


Surveying business uncertainty

  • David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Jose Barrero, ITAM – Business School
  • Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
  • Steven Davis, University of Chicago
  • Brent Meyer*, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Nicholas Parker, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Real credit cycles

  • Pedro Bordalo, University of Oxford
  • Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
  • Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University
  • Stephen Terry*, Boston University

Uncertainty and change: survey evidence of firms’ subjective beliefs

  • Rüdiger Bachmann*, University of Notre Dame
  • Kai Carstensen, University of Kiel
  • Stefan Lautenbacher, ifo Institute
  • Martin Schneider, Stanford University

Firms’ price, cost and activity expectations: evidence from micro data

  • Lena Boneva, Bank of England
  • James Cloyne, University of California, Davis
  • Martin Weale*, King’s College London
  • Tomasz Wieladek, Centre for Economic Policy Research/Barclays



Measuring expectations: the effect of response mode on the use of focal responses, validity and respondents’ evaluations

  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin*, University of Leeds
  • Katherine Carman, RAND Corporation

Forecasting treatment effects with survey instruments

  • Joseph Briggs*, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
  • Andrew Caplin, New York University
  • Søren Leth-Petersen, University of Copenhagen
  • Gianluca Violante, Princeton University

Precise or imprecise probabilities? Evidence from survey response on late-onset dementia

  • Pamela Giustinelli*, Bocconi University
  • Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University
  • Francesca Molinari, Cornell University

The impact of Brexit on UK firms

  • Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
  • Philip Bunn, Bank of England
  • Scarlet Chen*, Stanford University
  • Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
  • Pawel Smietanka*, Bank of England
  • Gregory Thwaites, London School of Economics



Tax refund expectations and financial behavior

  • Sydnee Caldwell, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Scott Nelson*, University of Chicago
  • Daniel Waldinger, New York University

Unconventional monetary policy and SME expectations of future credit availability

  • Annalisa Ferrando, European Central Bank
  • Alexander Popov, European Central Bank
  • Gregory Udell*, Indiana University

Five facts about beliefs and portfolios

  • Stefano Giglio, Yale University
  • Matteo Maggiori, Harvard University
  • Johannes Stroebel*, New York University
  • Stephen Utkus, Vanguard Center for Investor Research




Friday, 22 November 2019


John Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Plenary 2

Olivier Coibion, University of Texas, Austin


Inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations

  • Michael J. Lamla, University of Essex
  • Damjan Pfajfar*, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
  • Lea Rendell, University of Maryland

Aggregate risk or aggregate uncertainty? Evidence from UK households

  • Claudio Michelacci*, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
  • Luigi Paciello, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance

The role of heterogeneous expectations in life cycle models

  • Jochem de Bresser*, Tilburg University

Anchoring of inflation expectations

  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Argia Sbordone*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York



Expectations uncertainty and household economic behavior

  • Itzhak Ben-David, The Ohio State University
  • Elyas Fermand, University of North Carolina
  • Camelia M. Kuhnen*, University of North Carolina
  • Geng Li, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Marriage, children and labor supply: beliefs and outcomes

  • Yifan Gong*, University of Western Ontario
  • Ralph Stinebrickner, Berea College
  • Todd R. Stinebrickner, University of Western Ontario

Inflation expectations and choices of households

  • Nathanael Vellekoop*, University of Toronto
  • Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe University Frankfurt

IQ, expectations and choice

  • Francesco D’Acunto, Boston College
  • Daniel Hoang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • Maritta Paloviita, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank
  • Michael Weber*, University of Chicago

Closing remarks

(by video)

Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

Organising committee

  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  • Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Luc Laeven, European Central Bank
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York