Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
THE ECB BLOG
27 March 2026
Digital euro: an opportunity for banks
The digital euro can be a springboard for bank digitalisation, write Executive Board members Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson. It strengthens Europe’s sovereignty while helping banks modernise, compete with non-banks and remain profitable.
Read the blog post
SPEECH
26 March 2026
Strengthening European resilience
Deeper integration is key to Europe’s growth and stability, Vice-President Luis de Guindos says at the Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture. We need to complete the Single Market, build a savings and investments union, secure technological sovereignty and simplify banking rules.
Read the Vice-President's speech
THE ECB BLOG
31 March 2026
Tracking inflation expectations
Inflation expectations are crucial for monetary policy as they influence economic decisions and thereby inflation. Unfortunately, expectation surveys come with blind spots. We use a model to turn infrequent survey data into a dense grid of expectations.
Read The ECB Blog- 1 April 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 31 March 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 31 March 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 31 March 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 March 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 26 March 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 26 March 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 1 April 2026
- Public lecture by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event hosted by the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga and Latvijas Banka
- 27 March 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at Department of Economics at University of Zurich in Zurich, Switzerland
- 26 March 2026
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture organised by Eesti Pank
- 25 March 2026
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The ECB and Its Watchers XXVI, in Frankfurt, Germany
- 25 March 2026
- Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers” conference organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University Frankfurt
- 23 March 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Segovia on 20 March 2026
- 8 March 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Benedetta Poletti on 12 February 2026
- 3 March 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 26 February 2026
- 21 February 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Emma Tucker, Chelsey Dulaney, Greg Ip, Nick Timiraos, Daniel Colarusso and Amol Sharma on 19 February 2026
- 19 February 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Laura Noonan and Nick Comfort on 17 February 2026
- 31 March 2026
- Inflation expectations are crucial for monetary policy as they shape economic decisions and feed through to inflation. While expectation surveys provide insights, they come with blind spots. We use a model to transform infrequent survey data into a dense grid of expectations.Details
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 30 March 2026
- Today’s supervisory framework for EU capital markets is complex and fragmented. Integrated supervision would strengthen supervisory consistency, improve cross-border risk detection and support market integration, providing stronger foundations for the savings and investments union.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 27 March 2026
- The digital euro is a strategic investment in European autonomy, monetary sovereignty and financial resilience. It also serves as a springboard for innovative digitalisation strategies in retail payments and strengthens bank business models in the face of growing competition.Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 21 March 2026
- After a decade of Greek recovery, questions remain: Are banks strong enough to support the economy? What can be done to close the gap in living standards? This post explores Greece’s achievements, challenges and lessons on the path from crisis to recovery, and towards resilience.Details
- JEL Code
- E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
- 12 March 2026
- As payments and financial markets go digital, central bank money must evolve too. The Eurosystem is working with market participants to ensure that tokenised finance can settle safely in central bank money, supporting innovation, integration and Europe’s financial sovereignty.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
- 1 April 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3213Details
- Abstract
- We study how trade wars propagate to countries that are not directly targeted. We develop a three-country New Keynesian model with trade in final and intermediate goods, incomplete asset markets, and asymmetric monetary regimes, and quantify the spillovers of the 2025 U.S.-China tariff escalation to the euro area. A bilateral U.S.-China trade war generates large and asymmetric welfare losses for the U.S. and China, while the euro area benefits temporarily from trade diversion. Once tariffs extend to euro-area goods, third-country welfare flips into losses and the Chinese downturn deepens. Welfare-maximizing retaliatory tariffs by the euro area deliver only modest domestic improvements, at the cost of large additional losses for the U.S. and China. Overall, the global incidence of trade policy is intrinsically multilateral: third-country gains under bilateral protectionism are short-lived, reverse once protection broadens, and cannot be inferred from two-country analysis.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 31 March 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents new information about the adoption of, and investment in, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies by euro area firms, based on the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). The findings reveal that large firms, listed or venture capital-backed companies and young firms are adopting AI more frequently. Firms using AI are more likely to expect an increase in turnover and investment in fixed assets compared with firms not using AI. Similarly, they plan to allocate larger shares of their investment to AI compared with non-users, indicating a reinforcing cycle of adoption and innovation. Ownership structure influences investment patterns, with listed or venture capital-backed companies leading early-stage adoption and privately owned firms dominating at more advanced stages.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 31 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3212Details
- Abstract
- The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), launched in 2021, aims to promote long-term economic growth in EU Member States by incentivising structural reforms and investments. This paper explores a related supply-side transmission mechanism: improvements in institutional quality, as measured by the Worldwide Governance Indicators. Using a Bayesian synthetic control model and data up to 2024, we find robust and economically meaningful RRF-induced improvements in institutional quality in Italy. For other main RRF beneficiary countries, the evidence of such an effect ranges from suggestive to limited. We show that this cross-country variation is broadly consistent with the implementation of the national Recovery and Resilience Plans in terms of implementation speed and reform mix. While it is too early to draw firm policy conclusions, the findings lend support to the view that conditional, reform-linked financing instruments of the RRF type can improve institutional quality and, thereby, long-term growth prospects – provided that the reforms are well designed and effectively implemented.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
- 31 March 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 384Details
- Abstract
- In April and in October 2025 China imposed export controls on rare earths amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. Although these measures were too short-lived to generate macroeconomic effects, they signalled China’s ability to draw on its dominant position in the rare earth supply chain. This paper provides a structured assessment of the potential macroeconomic consequences associated with rare earth supply disruptions. First, it documents that exposure to rare earth supply disruptions is concentrated in high-tech and security-sensitive sectors including automotive, electronics and defence-related industries. Second, drawing on earlier episodes of Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals (notably in 2010 and 2023), it highlights two key mitigating forces from the targeted countries’ perspective: practical and strategic constraints on China’s ability to implement strict export bans, and innovation-led substitution by targeted countries. Third, the paper quantifies the global macroeconomic implications of a hypothetical scenario of stringent but partial Chinese export restrictions on rare earths lasting for 18 months. To do so, the analysis combines, for the various segments of the transmission chain, a partial equilibrium setup, a closed-economy DSGE model, and the multi-country multi-sector dynamic model of Aguilar et al. (2026). The main results, across specifications, suggest estimated output losses for the United States ranging between 0.3% and 0.6%, with the largest impacts concentrated in automotive and electronics manufacturing. The results at the same time highlight the sensitivity of model-based estimates to assumptions on the substitutability of rare earths and the severity of restrictions.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
Q37 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation→Issues in International Trade
- 31 March 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 31 March 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box provides a first assessment of digital investment trends in the euro area by using proxies derived from annual national accounts and monthly production data. As there is no standardised measurement framework, our definition of digital investment covers investment in buildings and structures in the information and communication sector, investment in ICT equipment and computer software and databases in the business economy, and investment in research and development in the information and communication sector. The proxy shows that there has been a gradual increase in digital investment, likely driven most recently by the surge in global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and cloud services. Looking ahead, the share of digital investment in overall business investment is expected to continue growing, supported, among other factors, by venture capital, Next Generation EU funding and the EU AI Continent Action Plan. However, survey results point to concerns that insufficient energy supply and overregulation could hamper further growth.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
- 30 March 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Trade policy uncertainty has risen sharply since late 2024 and remained at exceptionally high levels in 2025. This box investigates the implications of elevated trade policy uncertainty for euro area economic activity. It discusses the main transmission channels and shows that euro area sentiment tends to deteriorate when trade policy uncertainty rises. Empirical estimates suggest that the increase in trade policy uncertainty in 2025 weighed on euro area output and affected the manufacturing sector most significantly. Nevertheless, thanks to a number of offsetting factors, overall economic activity remained resilient.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- 30 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3211Details
- Abstract
- We quantify the effect of severe weather shocks on the US economy in an environment in which the economy can switch between periods of financial stability and financial instability, like the Great Recession. We estimate a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banks and severe weather events. We show that severe weather shocks: 1) have a negative impact on real and financial US variables, sizable only in periods of financial instability, but muted effects on nominal variables; 2) are never a relevant source of business cycles fluctuations; 3) transmit mainly via a deterioration in the quality of capital.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 30 March 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 383Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an evidence-based assessment of the EU supervisory landscape by combining a comprehensive mapping of supervisory models and authorities with an analysis of capital market players across key sectors, including market infrastructures, asset management, and crypto-asset service providers. It documents a highly complex and fragmented supervisory architecture, characterised by a wide variety of national supervisory models and multiple authorities operating across the Union. While regulatory harmonisation through the Single Rulebook has progressed, supervisory responsibilities for capital market players remain largely national, with limited and uneven EU-level powers. This institutional fragmentation is increasingly misaligned with market realities, as capital markets have become more cross-border and integrated, albeit with important differences across sectors. The paper develops an analytical framework to assess options for a review of the EU capital markets supervisory architecture. Based on the sectoral mapping, it distils a few guiding principles for supervisory integration: a consistent approach based on common criteria (such as size and cross-border relevance) while accounting for sectoral specificities, and close cooperation between EU and national authorities. Finally, it conducts a sensitivity analysis around alternative degrees of supervisory integration and calibration criteria, and discusses the governance arrangements needed to make integrated supervision effective in practice. The analysis shows that a more integrated supervisory framework could deliver four key benefits: enhanced supervisory effectiveness, improved supervisory efficiency, reduced complexity and compliance burdens for firms operating across jurisdictions, and the removal of supervisory barriers that currently hinder the cross-border integration of EU capital markets.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 30 March 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026Details
- Abstract
- In this box, we show that exporters to the United States are, in aggregate, absorbing only a small fraction of the higher US tariffs. We document a wide range of responses to tariffs across country-sector pairs exporting to the US market. In addition, using product-level trade data, we show that US tariffs have led to a strong adjustment in imports, both across product categories and in overall volume. While tariffs are reshaping the geography of trade linkages, the associated costs are falling mostly on US importers and consumers.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
- 27 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3210Details
- Abstract
- Banks use synthetic risk transfers (SRTs) to offload potential losses in their loan portfolios to non-bank investors while retaining the loans on their balance sheets. We investigate this trillion-euro market using transaction-level data from the euro area, the largest SRT market, and highlight three channels of potential risks to financial stability. First, we show that banks synthetically transfer loans that are capital-expensive relative to their riskiness. To establish causality, we exploit a regulation that causes a jump in the risk weights of loans without affecting their riskiness. As banks redeploy the freed capital, their loan portfolios become riskier relative to their capitalization. Second, after entering an SRT, banks reduce their monitoring efforts compared to other banks lending to the same firm. The reduction in monitoring is greater the larger the share of their firm exposure that banks synthetically transfer. Third, banks and non-bank investors are interconnected. Banks are more likely to sell SRTs to investors with whom they already have credit relationship.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3209Details
- Abstract
- We show that losses on banks’ securities portfolios matter for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy even in the absence of financial stability concerns. When banks experience losses in their pledgeable securities, their ability to tap liquidity through the interbank market is impaired, and they subsequently reduce illiquid corporate lending, regardless of whether the securities were recorded at market or historical value. These effects are less pronounced for banks with abundant collateral and reserves and for banks that receive liquidity through their group’s internal capital market. Our results highlight a collateral channel in the bank-based transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 26 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3208Details
- Abstract
- Decentralised Finance (DeFi) emerged in 2021 as a fast-growing crypto segment, attracting policymakers’ attention due to its innovative approach of delivering financial services without relying on centralised intermediaries. This paper assesses DeFi governance arrangements for regulating and supervising DeFi using a comprehensive dataset. We find that governance token holders of four protocols (Aave, MakerDAO, Ampleforth, Uniswap) are highly concentrated with around half or more holdings linked to the protocols themselves or exchanges. Top voters are mostly delegates, who, in many cases, could not be identified nor linked to token holders. The study offers insights for policymakers regarding the implementation of policy measures aimed at bringing relevant entities under the regulatory umbrella. The difficulty in identifying holders and voters using public data may make it hard to rely on some of the regulatory anchor points often put forward in the policy debate such as governance token holders, developers or centralised exchanges.
- JEL Code
- G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 26 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3207Details
- Abstract
- Conventional credit risk models understate tail risk by centering on mean default probabilities and neglecting distributional and sectoral heterogeneity. We propose a Quantile Probability of Default (QPD) framework based on unconditional quantile regressions estimated on flow default rates from five million non-financial firms across nine countries, conditioned on macro- and sectoral scenario covariates standard in stress testing. The tail exhibits three- to five-fold stronger sensitivity than at the median, revealing non-linearities and asymmetric sectoral propagation of credit risk. We validate the performance of our model across crisis periods and benchmark models to confirm the framework’s robustness and prudential efficiency. Under the European Central Banks’s 2025 increasing geopolitical and trade tensions scenario, the QPD identifies higher tail vulnerabilities in construction, trade, hospitality, and real estate. The framework embeds distributional estimation into stress testing, advancing scenario-based assessment of sectoral credit risk for policy and prudential applications.
- JEL Code
- C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 25 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3206Details
- Abstract
- This paper maps the euro-area digital-banking segment and assesses how digital banks transmit monetary policy relative to brick-and-mortar peers. I compile a hand-checked universe of over 170 digital banks (2016–2025) from supervisory data, classifying institutions by business model (e-retail, e-service, e-wholesale). Digital banks are small on average yet growing fast, rely more on household deposits—predominantly overnight—and hold larger cash buffers and intangibles than traditional banks. Using a difference-in-differences design around the ECB tightening cycle that began in July 2022 and the initial 2024 easing. Three results stand out. (i) The funding channel is stronger and faster at digital banks in tightening: household deposit rates rise more and retail-funding spreads compress less, especially at overnight maturities and for stand-alone digital banks. Corporate-funding results are directionally similar but weaker and less robust. (ii) Loan-rate pass-through is not stronger, implying margin compression and a later slowdown in lending growth at digital banks despite continued retail inflows. Household deposits are markedly more rate-sensitive than corporate or unsecured funding. (iii) In early easing, digital banks cut new funding rates relatively quickly —particularly at longer maturities — yet effective deposit premia persist and retail inflows soften while margins begin to normalise. Policy implications concern the interaction of market digital adoption and banks’ capacity to adjust balance-sheet duration through the monetary cycle, along with financial stability.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
- 25 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3205Details
- Abstract
- The smooth functioning of the repo market is essential to financial stability. However, the market has faced repeated episodes of stress in recent years. This paper examines the resilience of the euro-denominated repo market during recent episodes of elevated financial stress, drawing on transaction-level data and applying network analysis. The institutional repo network displays a core–periphery structure, with connectivity intensifying during stress periods. At the sectoral level, trading volumes and repo spreads remain broadly stable. For the euro repo market as a whole, financial stress is associated with lower spreads, consistent with the interpretation that the market functions as a shock absorber.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 24 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3204Details
- Abstract
- This paper quantifies the role of housing wealth in the transmission of monetary policy to consumption in 20 advanced economies. Using Bayesian VAR models we identify structural shocks with a novel combination of sign and maximum forecast error variance restrictions, isolating the housing wealth channel through counterfactual impulse responses. We find that the housing wealth multiplier — the sensitivity of consumption to exogenous house price changes — is strongly correlated with outright homeownership rates and is higher for durable consumption. Cross-country differences in the monetary policy transmission to consumption are largely driven by the cash-flow channel.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 24 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3203Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the short-term macroeconomic and sectoral effects of extreme weather events in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We construct novel indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation based on percentile thresholds of long-run historical distributions and estimate their impact through country-specific structural Bayesian VAR models. The analysis documents sizable and heterogeneous effects on real GDP, HICP, and sectoral activity over a one-year horizon. Temperature extremes primarily affect industrial and energy-related sectors, with Germany exhibiting the strongest vulnerability to heatwaves. Precipitation extremes mainly impact construction and mining, with Spain featuring the largest exposure to floods and droughts. Sectoral composition plays a key role in shaping transmission, with pharmaceuticals, electricity, construction, and mining displaying distinct and recurrent patterns. Given their impact on prices, extreme weather event shocks may exert inflationary pressures without hurting activity, or induce demand-type of effects on the overall economy, with different effects across countries.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- 24 March 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 141Details
- Abstract
- Our new methodology builds an inter-country input-output table that distinguishes green products from the rest, allowing us to assess vulnerabilities in green value chains. In a multi-country, multi-sector model, our table reveals that a decoupling of green supply chains between a US-centric West and a China-centric East could globally cut trade in green products by up to 20%, lower welfare by up to 3% and raise yearly global greenhouse gas emissions by about 50 million tonnes.
- JEL Code
- C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
- 23 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3202Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides the first causal estimate of the economic impact of interlinking payment systems across countries. We exploit a new dataset of payment systems interlinking initiatives, which identifies over 2,000 connections, and employ standard gravity methods to estimate their impact on trade flows. Consistent with trade costs theory, we find that inter-connected countries have around 4% higher trade volumes, roughly half the effect of a trade agreement and a quarter of the effect of a common currency area. Our results isolate the average effect on trade, of directly connecting fast payment systems, net of country pairs already accessing the correspondent banking network. The estimated impact is larger for payment systems that allow wholesale transactions, those that link small countries, which, typically, are less connected to the correspondent banking network, and for geographical areas that face high cross-border payment costs. This suggests that the benefits from interlinking are derived from reduced cross-border trade costs. Our findings are causal – proved by parametric and semi-parametric estimators – and robust to numerous additional controls, including exclusion of the largest interlinked country group, the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
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